SMCI (SMCI)

$13.0B
Market Cap
15.8
P/E Ratio
1.49
Beta
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 5/9Altman Z 4.1 SafeBeneish M -2.45 CleanROIC−WACC -2.7%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 4.1.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The fundamental economics of the business are characterized by a robust asset efficiency profile, evidenced by an ROE of 16.6% driven primarily by high asset turnover at 1.57x rather than leverage or margin expansion. This operational velocity is supported by accelerating top-line growth of 46.6% year-over-yoer and healthy gross margins of 11.1%, though the net margin compression to 4.8% suggests rising operating costs relative to revenue scale. Creditworthiness appears stable with a Beneish M-Score of -2.45 indicating low earnings manipulation risk, while the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 reflects moderate financial strength without extreme distress signals; however, the ROIC-WACC spread remains unquantifiable as WACC data is absent from the provided metrics.

Valuation currently sits at a P/E multiple of 15.8x, which requires contextualization against sector peers to determine if it represents a discount or premium given the company's high-growth trajectory and positive insider flow neutrality over the last quarter. A DCF model implies an intrinsic value of $24, suggesting that current market pricing may be divergent from this calculated fair value depending on whether the implied growth assumptions align with the observed 46.6% revenue expansion. The market appears to be weighing the high turnover efficiency and strong top-line momentum against the modest net margin environment, resulting in a valuation multiple that does not immediately reflect extreme overvaluation but lacks sufficient comparative data for definitive positioning.

Risk assessment remains incomplete without sector-specific beta or Fama-French alpha figures, leaving the risk-reward profile partially undefined despite the neutral insider activity which neither signals aggressive accumulation nor distribution. The combination of low manipulation scores and solid turnover offers a degree of fundamental stability, yet investors must evaluate whether the 46.6% growth rate is sustainable given the thin net margins before concluding on long-term viability relative to the $24 fair value estimate.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →9.3%11.3%13.3%
2%$27$22$18
3%$30$24$19
4%$35$26$21

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $24 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

5/9
Piotroski F-Score
Average — mixed operational signals
4.1
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-2.45
Beneish M-Score
Below threshold — no statistical earnings quality concern per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

11.1%
Gross Margin
4.8%
Net Margin
8.6%
ROIC
11.3%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: -2.7%— Negative spread.
+46.6%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.5B
Free Cash Flow

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

4.8%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
1.57x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
2.22x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
16.6%
Return on Equity
✅ ROE driven by high asset turnover — an efficient, capital-light business.

Balance Sheet Health

1.22x
Debt / Equity
5.25x
Current Ratio
21.3x
Interest Coverage
-0.4x
Net Debt / EBITDA
12.25%
FCF Yield
1.3B
EBITDA

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $0.30
Act: $0.31
+3.8%
Q3
✗ Miss
Est: $0.44
Act: $0.41
-6.6%
Q2
✗ Miss
Est: $0.39
Act: $0.35
-10.1%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $0.49
Act: $0.69
+41.4%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

7.2
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
1.85
Price/Book
33M
Avg Volume
$62.36
52W High
$19.48
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$1.8B
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding SMCI
0.04%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$4.4T
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like ONEO or VOT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SMCI shares regardless of SMCI's individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to SMCI through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in SMCI to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

SMCI Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
SMCIEpicenterVOOETFIVVETFSPYETFNVDALow RiskAAPLLow RiskMSFTLow RiskMULow RiskAVGOLow Risk
SMCI Price Drop (%)0

If SMCI (SMCI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NVIDIA CORP (NVDA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with SMCI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 24 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

SMCI Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
SMCI

Float lock-up computed from 26 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

SMCI Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does SMCI convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$1.5B
EBITDA
$1.3B
FCF Conversion
115%
Reinvestment Rate
-15%
115% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
8.6%
ROIC − WACC Spread
-2.7%

SMCI converts 115% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.7%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-146,795$32.00$217,440
2026-05-135,170$32.79$169,524.3
2026-05-12391$33.52$13,106.32
2026-05-1114,800$35.37$523,476
2026-05-0843,597$33.62$1.5M
2026-05-07122,903$34.66$4.3M
2026-05-0671,674$27.83$2.0M
2026-05-0411,214$27.09$303,787.26
2026-05-0113,285$27.40$364,009
2026-04-273,300$29.08$95,964
2026-04-2317,587$29.18$513,188.66
2026-04-21141,970$28.81$4.1M
2026-04-201,108,632$28.56$31.7M
2026-04-1763,913$28.40$1.8M
2026-04-15133,689$27.20$3.6M
2026-04-1390,561$25.26$2.3M
2026-04-10508$23.22$11,795.76
2026-04-09327,999$23.37$7.7M
2026-04-08366,358$22.67$8.3M
2026-04-07532,385$22.05$11.7M
2026-04-06741,917$23.22$17.2M
2026-04-02369,236$22.51$8.3M
2026-04-01545,938$22.77$12.4M
2026-03-3197,098$21.06$2.0M
2026-03-30147,156$21.97$3.2M
2026-03-276,312$22.21$140,189.52
2026-03-261,013,321$24.05$24.4M
2026-03-2529,815$22.23$662,787.45
2026-03-23555,455$20.53$11.4M
2026-03-20173,280$30.79$5.3M

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare SMCI to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.