Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 37.7x earnings — a 42% discount to the sector average of 65.0x — AAPL is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 10.3 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $59 implies 77% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedApple Inc. (AAPL) demonstrates robust fundamental quality, with a significant ROIC-WACC spread of +42.8%, indicating that the company generates returns well above its cost of capital. The DuPont analysis reveals strong profitability and efficiency: net margins at 26.9% and asset turnover at 1.16x contribute to an impressive ROE of 151.9%. Leverage, measured by the equity multiplier at 4.87x, also plays a role but is not excessively high given its scale. The Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and Altman Z-Score of 10.4 further affirm financial strength and low bankruptcy risk, while Beneish M-Score of -2.37 suggests no earnings manipulation concerns.
Valuation metrics indicate that AAPL is trading at a premium relative to its historical average but still below the sector norm. The current P/E ratio stands at 32.4x compared to a five-year average of 25.1x and a technology sector average of 42.2x, suggesting some room for multiple compression. A DCF fair value estimate of $58 per share implies an upside potential of -77%, reflecting the market's expectation that future free cash flow growth will decelerate from its current implied rate of 19.3% over ten years. The Fama-French Alpha and Value Factor suggest a slight underperformance relative to broader market trends, while Profitability Factor highlights robust earnings quality. Recent insider activity has been neutral, offering no additional directional signals for near-term trading decisions.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 6% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.5% | 11.5% | 13.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $69 | $54 | $45 |
| 3% | $77 | $59 | $47 |
| 4% | $87 | $64 | $51 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $315.20.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $59 (-77.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 30% above its 5-year average P/E of 25.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedApple Inc. is currently trading at $308.82 within the technology sector, presenting a specific technical snapshot that requires careful interpretation of momentum and trend dynamics. While the exact position relative to key moving averages is not explicitly detailed in the provided data points, the current price level serves as a critical reference for assessing whether short-term trends are bullish or bearish. In the absence of explicit average comparisons, analysts must infer trend strength by observing how this price point interacts with recent historical closes and volatility patterns typical for large-cap technology equities. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) offers insight into the immediate momentum behind the current price action, though its specific reading is not included in the supplied data. Without that numerical value, it remains unclear whether the asset is approaching overbought conditions or oversold territory, which are pivotal for gauging potential short-term reversals or continuations of existing trends. The combination of a $308.82 price point and an undefined RSI status suggests a market environment where trend confirmation relies heavily on broader context rather than isolated indicators alone. Ultimately, the technical setup described by these limited parameters does not inherently signal a definitive directional bias without further data regarding moving average crossovers or precise oscillator readings. Market participants should evaluate how this price level interacts with support and resistance zones established in prior sessions to form a complete picture of potential future movement. The current information highlights the necessity of integrating multiple technical tools to validate any observed momentum before drawing conclusions
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | $0.2700 | +3.8% |
| 2026-02-09 | $0.2600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-10 | $0.2600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-11 | $0.2600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-12 | $0.2600 | +4.0% |
| 2025-02-10 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-08 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-12 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-10 | $0.2500 | +4.2% |
| 2024-02-09 | $0.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-10 | $0.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-11 | $0.2400 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
SEC Filings & Material Events
Significant news
Latest earnings
Significant news
Significant news
Significant news
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | +16,000 | +13.9% | Increased |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | +84,295 | +20.3% | Increased |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | -282,514 | -5.7% | Decreased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | +274,021 | +94.7% | Increased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | -4,517,400 | -19.8% | Decreased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | +3,075,638 | +100.0% | New Position |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | -172,300 | -71.5% | Decreased |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | -304,806 | -6.6% | Decreased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | -3,125 | -100.0% | Exited |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | -823,000 | -3.5% | Decreased |
| Soros Fund Management | 2025-Q4 | +66,503 | +19.0% | Increased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | -55,285 | -16.0% | Decreased |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VGT or IYW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AAPL shares regardless of Apple Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $498.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to AAPL through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Apple Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Apple Inc. (AAPL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with AAPL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 43 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AAPL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 AAPL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 14.8% of the VGT (VGT) and 13.6% of the IYW (IYW). Across 33 tracked ETFs, approximately 1861M shares (12.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest AAPL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AAPL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Apple Inc. over the past year sits near $270.09 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $315.20 trades 16.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AAPL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Apple Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Apple Inc. converts 68% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 42.8% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 682 | $298.87 | $203,829.34 |
| 2026-05-13 | 129 | $294.80 | $38,029.2 |
| 2026-05-12 | 104,095 | $292.68 | $30.5M |
| 2026-05-11 | 13,800 | $293.32 | $4.0M |
| 2026-05-08 | 24,662 | $287.44 | $7.1M |
| 2026-05-07 | 19,901 | $287.51 | $5.7M |
| 2026-05-06 | 42 | $284.18 | $11,935.56 |
| 2026-05-05 | 418 | $276.83 | $115,714.94 |
| 2026-05-04 | 21,741 | $280.14 | $6.1M |
| 2026-05-01 | 8,664 | $271.35 | $2.4M |
| 2026-04-29 | 2,991 | $270.71 | $809,693.61 |
| 2026-04-27 | 300 | $271.06 | $81,318 |
| 2026-04-24 | 11,898 | $273.43 | $3.3M |
| 2026-04-23 | 2,800 | $273.17 | $764,876 |
| 2026-04-22 | 807 | $266.17 | $214,799.19 |
| 2026-04-21 | 2,600 | $273.05 | $709,930 |
| 2026-04-20 | 8,902 | $270.23 | $2.4M |
| 2026-04-17 | 1 | $263.40 | $263.4 |
| 2026-04-16 | 5,151 | $266.43 | $1.4M |
| 2026-04-15 | 115 | $258.83 | $29,765.45 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2,900 | $260.48 | $755,392 |
| 2026-04-10 | 3,489 | $260.49 | $908,849.61 |
| 2026-04-07 | 7,110 | $258.86 | $1.8M |
| 2026-04-06 | 5,746 | $255.92 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-02 | 7,533 | $255.63 | $1.9M |
| 2026-04-01 | 1,647 | $253.79 | $417,992.13 |
| 2026-03-31 | 2,388 | $246.63 | $588,952.44 |
| 2026-03-30 | 606 | $248.80 | $150,772.8 |
| 2026-03-26 | 3 | $252.62 | $757.86 |
| 2026-03-25 | 1,474 | $251.64 | $370,917.36 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 18,326,400 | $4,651,057,056K |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 4,668,333 | $1,184,776,232K |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 4,326,353 | $1,097,985,128K |
| Berkshire Hathaway | 2026-Q1 | 3,776,000 | $958,311,040K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | 3,075,638 | $780,569,445K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | 563,492 | $143,008,635K |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | 500,534 | $127,030,524K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 131,400 | $33,348,006K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 68,700 | $17,435,373K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 22,843,800 | $6,210,315,468K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 4,950,847 | $1,345,937,265K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 4,631,159 | $1,259,026,886K |
| Berkshire Hathaway | 2025-Q4 | 3,776,000 | $1,026,543,360K |
| Soros Fund Management | 2025-Q4 | 416,239 | $113,158,735K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | 289,471 | $78,695,586K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| SWKS | 0.515 | 0.430 | Moderate |
| TFC | 0.490 | 0.546 | Moderate |
| QRVO | 0.461 | 0.426 | Moderate |
| MET | 0.461 | 0.445 | Moderate |
| WAB | 0.446 | 0.405 | Moderate |
| CFG | 0.438 | 0.471 | Moderate |
| USB | 0.437 | 0.422 | Moderate |
| EWBC | 0.436 | 0.420 | Moderate |
| DD | 0.434 | 0.428 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AAPL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.