PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 8.9x earnings — a 75% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — PDD is in the lower valuation range.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company exhibits robust capital efficiency with a 33.1% ROIC, significantly outpacing typical cost of equity benchmarks to generate substantial value creation. This high return is primarily driven by exceptional operating leverage rather than financial engineering or asset intensity; the DuPont decomposition reveals that an impressive 28.5% net margin and rapid revenue expansion are being converted into returns via a modest equity multiplier of only 1.61x, indicating low reliance on debt financing. While the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggests solid fundamental stability without recent distress signals, the Altman Z-Score of 3.2 places the firm in a gray zone between safety and potential distress, warranting close monitoring of liquidity trends despite the strong Beneish M-Score of -2.24 which points to low earnings manipulation risk.
Valuation metrics present a compelling divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at a 10.4x P/E multiple, the stock appears significantly compressed relative to its historical trajectory and implied growth rates given the 59% year-over-year revenue expansion. A DCF analysis suggests a fair value of $934, implying that current market prices may be pricing in persistent downside risks or expecting a material contraction in future profitability that contradicts the observed margin profile. The disconnect between such high growth and low multiples could reflect sector-specific headwinds not captured in standard valuation models, creating a potential mean reversion opportunity if fundamentals hold steady.
From a factor investing perspective, the stock displays mixed signals regarding its risk-adjusted performance characteristics. Although it has generated a positive annual Fama-French alpha of 0.45%, indicating outperformance relative to market benchmarks after adjusting for size and value exposure, this is counterbalanced by negative loadings on specific style factors. The weak profitability factor (RMW) score of -0.233 suggests the stock currently underperforms other high-quality growth peers in terms of risk-adjusted returns driven by earnings power, while its neutral stance on the HML value factor implies it does not offer a clear tilt toward undervalued large-cap stocks. These factor deltas suggest that while absolute alpha exists, the investment case relies heavily on mean reversion rather than consistent style-based outperformance.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like MCHI or VWO, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell PDD shares regardless of PDD Holdings Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to PDD through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in PDD Holdings Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (2330) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with PDD. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 8 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
PDD Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 56 PDD shares, reducing daily market volatility.
PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.6% of the MCHI (MCHI) and 0.6% of the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund (VWO). Across 7 tracked ETFs, approximately 25M shares (1.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest PDD Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 7 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
PDD Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for PDD Holdings Inc. over the past year sits near $103.25 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $88.18 sits 14.6% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 4,276 | $102.31 | $437,477.56 |
| 2026-04-30 | 33,127 | $97.67 | $3.2M |
| 2026-04-20 | 700 | $104.79 | $73,353 |
| 2026-04-15 | 69 | $102.10 | $7,044.9 |
| 2026-04-13 | 15 | $100.17 | $1,502.55 |
| 2026-04-10 | 3,900 | $100.57 | $392,223 |
| 2026-04-07 | 3,324 | $100.91 | $335,424.84 |
| 2026-04-06 | 568 | $100.87 | $57,294.16 |
| 2026-04-02 | 4,698 | $101.78 | $478,162.44 |
| 2026-03-31 | 21 | $98.42 | $2,066.82 |
| 2026-03-27 | 144,138 | $100.62 | $14.5M |
| 2026-03-26 | 333,643 | $102.61 | $34.2M |
| 2026-03-24 | 23,061 | $96.25 | $2.2M |
| 2026-03-23 | 42,398 | $96.19 | $4.1M |
| 2026-03-20 | 13,694 | $97.43 | $1.3M |
| 2026-03-19 | 17,605 | $100.72 | $1.8M |
| 2026-03-16 | 100 | $102.65 | $10,265 |
| 2026-03-09 | 49,128 | $101.97 | $5.0M |
| 2026-03-02 | 100 | $103.73 | $10,373 |
| 2026-02-19 | 157,689 | $102.92 | $16.2M |
| 2026-02-13 | 45 | $100.22 | $4,509.9 |
| 2026-02-02 | 74,078 | $101.05 | $7.5M |
| 2026-01-21 | 103,105 | $104.46 | $10.8M |
| 2026-01-20 | 76,567 | $106.76 | $8.2M |
| 2026-01-12 | 23,696 | $120.55 | $2.9M |
| 2026-01-09 | 5,334 | $121.60 | $648,614.4 |
| 2026-01-07 | 124,086 | $122.66 | $15.2M |
| 2026-01-06 | 1,744 | $119.12 | $207,745.28 |
| 2026-01-02 | 13,678 | $113.39 | $1.6M |
| 2025-12-29 | 27,294 | $115.01 | $3.1M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| DD | 0.413 | 0.475 | Moderate |
| TSM | 0.405 | 0.509 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.402 | 0.397 | Moderate |
| MPWR | 0.395 | 0.496 | Moderate |
| TEL | 0.381 | 0.441 | Moderate |
| APTV | 0.379 | 0.387 | Moderate |
| SKY | 0.366 | 0.188 | Moderate |
| ASML | 0.364 | 0.524 | Moderate |
| USN070592100 | 0.363 | 0.524 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare PDD to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.