TE Connectivity plc (TEL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 21.8x earnings — a 67% discount to the sector average of 65.0x — TEL is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 5.3. DCF fair value of $264 suggests 12% upside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of the company present a nuanced profile where capital efficiency and profitability metrics diverge from traditional financial health indicators. While the ROIC-WACC spread of +1.1% suggests modest value creation, this is driven primarily by leverage rather than operational intensity; the DuPont decomposition reveals that an equity multiplier of 1.97x supports a 14.5% ROE despite relatively low asset turnover at 0.69x and solid but not exceptional net margins of 10.7%. Credit risk appears contained with an Altman Z-Score of 5.0, yet earnings quality warrants scrutiny given the mixed signals: a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicates moderate financial strength, while a Beneish M-Score of -2.83 points to low likelihood of manipulation despite strong gross margins exceeding 35%.
Valuation metrics suggest significant divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models derived from cash flow assumptions. The stock trades at a premium multiple of 30.1x relative to historical norms, yet the DCF model implies substantial upside potential with a fair value estimate of $268, representing an approximate 28.3% gap above current levels based on projected free cash flow growth rates averaging 11.3% over the next decade. This discrepancy indicates that the market may be pricing in slower expansion than the underlying DCF inputs assume, though the high multiple inherently compresses downside protection if consensus estimates prove overly optimistic regarding long-term trajectory.
Risk factor analysis reveals conflicting signals regarding future performance and insider sentiment. The stock exhibits a positive Fama-French alpha of 4.35% annually, suggesting outperformance relative to its risk factors, yet this is partially offset by a negative profitability factor (RMW) of -0.050 which neutralizes the value tilt indicated by an HML score of 0.103. Most notably, insider activity over the past ninety days shows net selling totaling $7.5 million, creating a counterweight to the attractive valuation spread and raising questions about management's view on near-term catalysts versus long-term fundamentals.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 9% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10% | 12% | 14% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $312 | $241 | $195 |
| 3% | $351 | $264 | $209 |
| 4% | $401 | $291 | $225 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $214.73.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $264 (+12.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 34% above its 5-year average P/E of 24.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $0.7800 | +9.9% |
| 2026-02-20 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-22 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-21 | $0.7100 | +9.2% |
| 2025-02-21 | $0.6500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-22 | $0.6500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-23 | $0.6500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-23 | $0.6500 | +10.2% |
| 2024-02-15 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-16 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-17 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-05-18 | $0.5900 | +5.4% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VOE or VO, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell TEL shares regardless of TE Connectivity plc's individual fundamentals. We estimate $7.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to TEL through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in TE Connectivity plc to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If TE Connectivity plc (TEL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Apple Inc. (AAPL) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with TEL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 22 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
TEL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 TEL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
TE Connectivity plc (TEL) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.1% of the VOE (VOE) and 0.6% of the VO (VO). Across 23 tracked ETFs, approximately 50M shares (17.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest TEL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 23 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
TEL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for TE Connectivity plc over the past year sits near $207.19 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $214.73 trades 3.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
TEL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does TE Connectivity plc convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
TE Connectivity plc converts 78% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 1.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 8,970 | $207.66 | $1.9M |
| 2026-05-13 | 4,563 | $213.73 | $975,249.99 |
| 2026-05-11 | 17 | $206.20 | $3,505.4 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17 | $210.06 | $3,571.02 |
| 2026-05-07 | 262 | $216.17 | $56,636.54 |
| 2026-05-06 | 268 | $206.94 | $55,459.92 |
| 2026-05-01 | 2,794 | $211.66 | $591,378.04 |
| 2026-04-28 | 8,873 | $209.52 | $1.9M |
| 2026-04-20 | 322 | $246.14 | $79,257.08 |
| 2026-04-15 | 7 | $236.88 | $1,658.16 |
| 2026-04-13 | 10 | $229.78 | $2,297.8 |
| 2026-04-08 | 252 | $210.98 | $53,166.96 |
| 2026-03-25 | 30 | $206.37 | $6,191.1 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6 | $195.84 | $1,175.04 |
| 2026-03-20 | 926 | $198.39 | $183,709.14 |
| 2026-03-09 | 36,693 | $205.85 | $7.6M |
| 2026-03-02 | 5 | $230.15 | $1,150.75 |
| 2026-02-23 | 228 | $234.73 | $53,518.44 |
| 2026-02-20 | 200 | $232.40 | $46,480 |
| 2026-02-02 | 2,635 | $222.78 | $587,025.3 |
| 2026-01-29 | 613 | $221.77 | $135,945.01 |
| 2026-01-28 | 441 | $230.78 | $101,773.98 |
| 2026-01-15 | 35 | $237.30 | $8,305.5 |
| 2026-01-13 | 12 | $235.40 | $2,824.8 |
| 2026-01-06 | 6 | $231.40 | $1,388.4 |
| 2025-12-22 | 323 | $229.98 | $74,283.54 |
| 2025-12-16 | 7,013 | $230.70 | $1.6M |
| 2025-12-12 | 1,258 | $244.29 | $307,316.82 |
| 2025-11-21 | 332 | $214.49 | $71,210.68 |
| 2025-11-12 | 14,307 | $247.16 | $3.5M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| APH | 0.660 | 0.757 | Moderate |
| CAT | 0.594 | 0.578 | Moderate |
| CMI | 0.588 | 0.582 | Moderate |
| LRCX | 0.582 | 0.631 | Moderate |
| AMAT | 0.578 | 0.652 | Moderate |
| TSM | 0.576 | 0.618 | Moderate |
| ETN | 0.566 | 0.603 | Moderate |
| USN070592100 | 0.558 | 0.624 | Moderate |
| ASML | 0.557 | 0.623 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare TEL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.