Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicROK trades at 46.9x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 5.3 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $198 implies 51% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this Industrials leader present a complex dichotomy between current profitability drivers and capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that an ROE of 23.4% is primarily fueled by significant financial leverage (Equity Multiplier of 3.02x) rather than operational margin expansion or asset turnover, the underlying business quality metrics suggest resilience. A Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a Beneish M-Score of -2.71 indicate strong balance sheet health with low earnings manipulation risk, yet this is counterbalanced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -2.6%, signaling that current returns on invested capital fail to cover the cost of capital. This negative spread implies value destruction at the margin despite the high nominal return generated through leverage.
Valuation metrics currently reflect a significant premium relative to historical norms and peer averages, with a P/E ratio of 41.7x trading substantially above the sector average of 32.1x. Discounted cash flow analysis suggests the market is pricing in aggressive future performance, specifically an implied free cash flow growth rate of 23.4% over ten years; however, this optimism appears misaligned with fundamentals as the DCF fair value implies a -43.8% downside from current levels. The disconnect between the high valuation multiple and negative intrinsic value suggests that market expectations are far more optimistic than what the current ROIC-WACC spread justifies.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators further complicate the investment thesis, highlighting divergent factor exposures. Although the stock exhibits a strong Fama-French Alpha of 17.94% annually, indicating outperformance relative to traditional risk factors, this is offset by negative signals in profitability (RMW: -0.331) and minimal value tilt (HML: 0.121). Compounding these fundamental concerns is notable insider activity, with $23.6 million in net selling over the past ninety days, which may signal management's view on near-term liquidity or valuation levels despite the company's solid credit profile indicated by an Altman Z-Score of 5.0.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 1% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 11.7% | 13.7% | 15.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $231 | $184 | $151 |
| 3% | $253 | $198 | $161 |
| 4% | $282 | $215 | $172 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $463.41.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=13.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $198 (-51.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 14% below its 5-year average P/E of 52.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe stock is trading slightly below its 200-day moving average and well under the 50-day moving average, indicating a short-term bearish trend. The RSI at 34.7 suggests that near-term momentum may be weak but not yet in oversold territory, hinting at potential stabilization or slight recovery.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | $1.3800 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-23 | $1.3800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-17 | $1.3800 | +5.3% |
| 2025-08-18 | $1.3100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-19 | $1.3100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-18 | $1.3100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-18 | $1.3100 | +4.8% |
| 2024-08-12 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-10 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-16 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-10 | $1.2500 | +5.9% |
| 2023-08-11 | $1.1800 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLI or VIS, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ROK shares regardless of Rockwell Automation, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $6.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to ROK through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Rockwell Automation, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with ROK. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 34 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ROK Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 ROK shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.9% of the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) and 0.7% of the VIS (VIS). Across 34 tracked ETFs, approximately 17M shares (15.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest ROK Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 34 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ROK Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Rockwell Automation, Inc. over the past year sits near $346.99 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $463.41 trades 33.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ROK Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Rockwell Automation, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Rockwell Automation, Inc. converts 97% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.8%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 225 | $454.99 | $102,372.75 |
| 2026-05-12 | 9 | $456.66 | $4,109.94 |
| 2026-05-06 | 4,398 | $435.93 | $1.9M |
| 2026-04-16 | 23,189 | $397.40 | $9.2M |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $405.27 | $1,215.81 |
| 2026-04-13 | 399 | $396.00 | $158,004 |
| 2026-04-07 | 160 | $367.18 | $58,748.8 |
| 2026-03-25 | 11 | $361.22 | $3,973.42 |
| 2026-03-19 | 549 | $355.11 | $194,955.39 |
| 2026-03-10 | 254 | $375.55 | $95,389.7 |
| 2026-03-02 | 476 | $407.45 | $193,946.2 |
| 2026-02-19 | 172 | $396.46 | $68,191.12 |
| 2026-02-09 | 1,678 | $415.02 | $696,403.56 |
| 2026-01-28 | 38,562 | $419.75 | $16.2M |
| 2026-01-20 | 95 | $415.52 | $39,474.4 |
| 2026-01-12 | 8 | $410.53 | $3,284.24 |
| 2025-12-31 | 36 | $393.68 | $14,172.48 |
| 2025-12-30 | 40 | $396.48 | $15,859.2 |
| 2025-12-10 | 119 | $400.61 | $47,672.59 |
| 2025-11-24 | 189,145 | $378.73 | $71.6M |
| 2025-11-20 | 2,772 | $372.48 | $1.0M |
| 2025-11-17 | 300 | $377.13 | $113,139 |
| 2025-11-10 | 29 | $373.49 | $10,831.21 |
| 2025-10-30 | 5,320 | $368.15 | $2.0M |
| 2025-10-20 | 100 | $347.66 | $34,766 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| EMR | 0.731 | 0.755 | High co-movement |
| PH | 0.668 | 0.655 | Moderate |
| DIS | 0.631 | 0.470 | Moderate |
| IR | 0.598 | 0.604 | Moderate |
| CMI | 0.585 | 0.682 | Moderate |
| TRMB | 0.575 | 0.494 | Moderate |
| MS | 0.569 | 0.613 | Moderate |
| AME | 0.569 | 0.591 | Moderate |
| CAT | 0.567 | 0.608 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ROK to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.