AMETEK, Inc. (AME)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAME trades at 34.1x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 7.9. DCF fair value of $158 implies 33% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedAMETEK exhibits a capital allocation profile where the 13.9% ROE is driven primarily by robust net margins of 20.0%, while asset turnover remains constrained at 0.46x, suggesting a leverage-heavy operating model with an equity multiplier of 1.51x. Although the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicates moderate financial strength and the Altman Z-Score of 7.5 points to low bankruptcy risk, the ROIC-WACC spread is notably tight at just +0.3%, implying that current returns barely exceed the cost of capital despite high profitability metrics. The Beneish M-Score of -2.43 further signals a lack of earnings manipulation concerns within this industrial framework.
Valuation analysis reveals a significant divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models, with the stock trading at 34.1x forward earnings compared to a sector average of 32.1x. While revenue growth sits at a modest 6.6% year-over-year, the DCF model projects an implied free cash flow expansion rate of 16.8%, yet this optimism is not reflected in current pricing; the resulting fair value estimate of $162 suggests approximately -24.5% downside from present levels. This disconnect indicates that the market may be overpricing future growth expectations relative to the company's actual capital efficiency and margin trajectory.
Risk-adjusted performance metrics present a mixed picture, characterized by strong momentum but divergent factor exposures. The stock has generated an annual Fama-French Alpha of 8.93%, outperforming its benchmark significantly, yet it carries a negative profitability factor loading of -0.071 alongside a slight value tilt with an HML score of 0.178. Recent insider activity shows $114,893 in net selling over the last ninety days, which may warrant scrutiny given the elevated valuation multiple and the gap between implied growth assumptions and current earnings power.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 7% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.1% | 11.1% | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $189 | $144 | $115 |
| 3% | $215 | $158 | $124 |
| 4% | $251 | $176 | $135 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $227.73.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $158 (-32.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 2% above its 5-year average P/E of 36.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current technical configuration for AMETEK, Inc. presents a complex landscape regarding institutional positioning, characterized by the stock trading at $227.90 within the Industrials sector. While specific moving average crossovers are not explicitly detailed in the provided data, the price level itself suggests that larger market participants may be actively managing exposure near this psychological threshold. In such environments, institutions often utilize price consolidation or breakout attempts to gauge liquidity before committing significant capital, implying a period of observation rather than decisive directional movement. The absence of explicit volume trends in the input requires caution; without data confirming whether recent price levels are supported by surging institutional buying or declining participation, one cannot definitively assert that smart money is accumulating or distributing shares at this exact moment. Consequently, the market structure appears to be in a state where larger players might be waiting for clearer confirmation of trend direction before adjusting their portfolios significantly. The current valuation relative to historical norms would typically trigger strategic rebalancing among fund managers who track industrial equities closely, yet without corroborating volume spikes or distinct moving average signals, the data indicates a neutral-to-volatile stance rather than an aggressive shift in control. This setup suggests that institutional behavior is likely focused on risk management and position sizing adjustments rather than unilateral attacks on price, as they await further catalysts to validate their entry or exit points. Ultimately, the technical snapshot reflects a market where major holders are exercising patience, allowing smaller fluctuations at $227.90 to
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | $0.3400 | +9.7% |
| 2025-12-05 | $0.3100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-15 | $0.3100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $0.3100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.3100 | +10.7% |
| 2024-12-06 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-16 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-07 | $0.2800 | +12.0% |
| 2023-12-07 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-13 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-09 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VOT or VFMV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AME shares regardless of AMETEK, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $7.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to AME through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in AMETEK, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If AMETEK, Inc. (AME) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with AME. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 27 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AME Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 AME shares, reducing daily market volatility.
AMETEK, Inc. (AME) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.3% of the VOT (VOT) and 1.2% of the VFMV (VFMV). Across 27 tracked ETFs, approximately 33M shares (14.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest AME Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 27 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AME Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for AMETEK, Inc. over the past year sits near $186.00 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $227.73 trades 22.4% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AME Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does AMETEK, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
AMETEK, Inc. converts 73% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 1 | $231.42 | $231.42 |
| 2026-05-12 | 81 | $232.16 | $18,804.96 |
| 2026-04-30 | 188 | $227.87 | $42,839.56 |
| 2026-04-24 | 44 | $235.00 | $10,340 |
| 2026-04-15 | 80 | $234.36 | $18,748.8 |
| 2026-04-14 | 291 | $234.47 | $68,230.77 |
| 2026-03-26 | 19,758 | $215.33 | $4.3M |
| 2026-03-25 | 23 | $216.98 | $4,990.54 |
| 2026-03-12 | 63 | $224.30 | $14,130.9 |
| 2026-03-11 | 63 | $226.30 | $14,256.9 |
| 2026-03-10 | 63 | $225.07 | $14,179.41 |
| 2026-03-09 | 27 | $221.98 | $5,993.46 |
| 2026-02-27 | 1,298 | $236.96 | $307,574.08 |
| 2026-02-26 | 3,886 | $233.02 | $905,515.72 |
| 2026-02-20 | 69,918 | $232.75 | $16.3M |
| 2026-02-04 | 282 | $228.92 | $64,555.44 |
| 2025-12-22 | 422 | $203.29 | $85,788.38 |
| 2025-12-11 | 280 | $200.66 | $56,184.8 |
| 2025-12-01 | 46 | $197.89 | $9,102.94 |
| 2025-11-24 | 26 | $195.02 | $5,070.52 |
| 2025-11-21 | 26 | $190.02 | $4,940.52 |
| 2025-11-18 | 2 | $191.19 | $382.38 |
| 2025-11-04 | 46,400 | $198.71 | $9.2M |
| 2025-10-30 | 86 | $184.19 | $15,840.34 |
| 2025-10-29 | 14 | $185.10 | $2,591.4 |
| 2025-10-24 | 1,784 | $189.20 | $337,532.8 |
| 2025-10-23 | 677 | $184.94 | $125,204.38 |
| 2025-10-14 | 2,854 | $182.24 | $520,112.96 |
| 2025-10-01 | 17,430 | $188.00 | $3.3M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| EMR | 0.649 | 0.636 | Moderate |
| WAB | 0.643 | 0.672 | Moderate |
| DOV | 0.638 | 0.571 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.623 | 0.542 | Moderate |
| PH | 0.623 | 0.616 | Moderate |
| CHRW | 0.604 | 0.616 | Moderate |
| IR | 0.590 | 0.565 | Moderate |
| NDSN | 0.585 | 0.561 | Moderate |
| KEYS | 0.578 | 0.570 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AME to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.