Dover Corporation (DOV)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 26.4x earnings — a 41% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — DOV is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 5.5. DCF fair value of $114 implies 48% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Dover Corporation present a distinct divergence between operational profitability and capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that an ROE of 14.8% is primarily driven by robust net margins at 13.5%, supported by moderate leverage rather than exceptional asset turnover, this strength is offset by negative value creation; the company's return on invested capital stands at 10.8%, falling short of its estimated cost of equity to produce a -1.0% spread. This inefficiency in deploying capital is reinforced by risk metrics indicating a mixed credit profile: an Altman Z-Score of 5.5 suggests moderate safety, yet the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 and negative annualized Fama-French alpha of -2.13% signal underperformance relative to value factors despite robust profitability characteristics (RMW). Furthermore, significant insider net selling totaling approximately $19 million over ninety days introduces a layer of caution regarding management's near-term outlook on the stock's trajectory.
Valuation metrics further complicate the investment case by suggesting that current market pricing is detached from intrinsic value models derived from cash flow assumptions. Trading at 25.8x earnings, the stock commands a substantial premium compared to its sector average of 44.2x only if one ignores the absolute magnitude; however, when contextualized against a discounted cash flow fair value estimate of $115, the current price implies approximately -45% downside potential based on these specific inputs. This discrepancy arises because the model assumes an aggressive ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 23.4%, which may be overly optimistic given the modest revenue expansion observed at just 4.5% year-over-year. Consequently, the market appears to be pricing in significantly higher future operational leverage and capital efficiency than currently demonstrated by the ROIC-WACC spread or historical growth trends.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.8% | 11.8% | 13.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $135 | $104 | $84 |
| 3% | $152 | $114 | $90 |
| 4% | $175 | $126 | $97 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $211.84.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $114 (-48.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 40% below its 5-year average P/E of 45.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedDover Corporation is currently trading at $210.83 within the Industrials sector, presenting a scenario where immediate price action must be weighed against underlying structural risks. Without specific data points regarding recent drawdowns or volatility metrics in the provided text, any assessment of momentum relies solely on this static valuation level. The absence of historical context for recent declines prevents a definitive conclusion on whether current price stability represents robust fundamental support or a fragile equilibrium susceptible to sudden shifts. In an environment where sector-wide pressures often amplify individual stock vulnerabilities, maintaining such a high absolute price point without visible technical buffers could indicate latent sensitivity to macroeconomic headwinds that typically impact industrial infrastructure and manufacturing cycles. The relationship between the current valuation and potential downside risk remains opaque given the lack of volatility measures or drawdown history in the input data. If recent market movements have been characterized by heightened uncertainty, this specific price level might serve as a temporary anchor rather than a sustainable trend indicator. Conversely, if the sector has experienced significant contraction elsewhere, DOV's position at $210.83 could reflect relative resilience that masks underlying fragility in its revenue streams or order books. Ultimately, the technical picture is incomplete without quantitative evidence of recent price swings or fundamental deterioration, leaving the sustainability of this momentum level contingent on factors not explicitly detailed here.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-27 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-28 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-29 | $0.5200 | +1.0% |
| 2025-05-30 | $0.5150 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-28 | $0.5150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-29 | $0.5150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-30 | $0.5150 | +1.0% |
| 2024-05-31 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-28 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-29 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-30 | $0.5100 | +1.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like NOBL or VOE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell DOV shares regardless of Dover Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to DOV through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Dover Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Dover Corporation (DOV) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with DOV. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
DOV Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 DOV shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Dover Corporation (DOV) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.5% of the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and 0.5% of the VOE (VOE). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 22M shares (16.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest DOV Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
DOV Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Dover Corporation over the past year sits near $179.84 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $211.84 trades 17.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
DOV Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Dover Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Dover Corporation converts 60% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.1%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 357 | $214.62 | $76,619.34 |
| 2026-05-12 | 174 | $219.97 | $38,274.78 |
| 2026-05-08 | 4,783 | $220.90 | $1.1M |
| 2026-05-04 | 660 | $225.79 | $149,021.4 |
| 2026-04-22 | 14 | $220.28 | $3,083.92 |
| 2026-04-20 | 1,031 | $219.07 | $225,861.17 |
| 2026-04-13 | 43 | $217.12 | $9,336.16 |
| 2026-03-25 | 14 | $215.58 | $3,018.12 |
| 2026-03-23 | 624 | $209.37 | $130,646.88 |
| 2026-03-13 | 19,169 | $203.80 | $3.9M |
| 2026-03-10 | 13 | $211.00 | $2,743 |
| 2026-02-26 | 13,483 | $226.73 | $3.1M |
| 2026-02-23 | 209 | $233.31 | $48,761.79 |
| 2026-02-13 | 2,702 | $230.57 | $623,000.14 |
| 2026-02-03 | 99 | $207.32 | $20,524.68 |
| 2026-01-29 | 10 | $206.00 | $2,060 |
| 2026-01-22 | 3,296 | $208.55 | $687,380.8 |
| 2026-01-15 | 8 | $204.34 | $1,634.72 |
| 2026-01-09 | 1 | $201.99 | $201.99 |
| 2025-12-30 | 1,276 | $199.03 | $253,962.28 |
| 2025-12-23 | 95 | $199.51 | $18,953.45 |
| 2025-12-22 | 25,168 | $196.21 | $4.9M |
| 2025-11-24 | 245 | $183.58 | $44,977.1 |
| 2025-11-18 | 54 | $180.05 | $9,722.7 |
| 2025-11-13 | 892 | $183.62 | $163,789.04 |
| 2025-10-23 | 4,240 | $167.61 | $710,666.4 |
| 2025-10-21 | 2,671 | $168.92 | $451,185.32 |
| 2025-10-15 | 2,337 | $162.55 | $379,879.35 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ITW | 0.756 | 0.697 | High co-movement |
| IR | 0.735 | 0.697 | High co-movement |
| SWK | 0.683 | 0.626 | Moderate |
| NDSN | 0.680 | 0.629 | Moderate |
| WAB | 0.678 | 0.648 | Moderate |
| PH | 0.671 | 0.571 | Moderate |
| MTD | 0.661 | 0.632 | Moderate |
| EMR | 0.656 | 0.613 | Moderate |
| PPG | 0.646 | 0.591 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare DOV to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.