Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 31.2x earnings — a 30% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — PH is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 7.0 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $299 implies 70% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Parker-Hannifin Corporation exhibit a robust quality profile characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of +3.3%, indicating efficient capital allocation relative to the cost of equity. This return is driven primarily by expansive net margins at 17.8% rather than asset turnover, which sits modestly at 0.67x, while leverage provides a multiplier effect via an Equity Multiplier of 2.15x. Financial integrity scores reinforce this stability; a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 6.6 suggest strong balance sheet health and low distress probability, further supported by a negative Beneish M-Score of -2.49 that points to minimal earnings manipulation risk despite recent revenue contraction of -0.4%.
Valuation metrics present a divergence between market pricing and discounted cash flow models. The current P/E ratio of 33.1x aligns closely with the sector average of 32.1x, suggesting the stock is fairly valued relative to peers on a multiple basis. However, DCF analysis implies a significant discount, calculating fair value at $307 and projecting -65.7% downside from current levels based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 23.8%. This discrepancy suggests the market may be pricing in higher growth expectations than those reflected in the specific DCF inputs provided or that the stock carries a premium for its quality attributes not fully captured by standard terminal value assumptions.
Risk and reward factors reveal complex signals regarding future performance trajectory. The stock demonstrates strong exposure to profitability anomalies with a Risk Model (RMW) factor of 0.145, yet it trades at a slight value tilt given an HML score of 0.324. Notably, the Fama-French Alpha stands high at 21.36% annually, indicating substantial outperformance relative to its risk factors over time. This alpha is counterbalanced by significant insider activity, with $24,353,831 in net selling observed over the last ninety days, which warrants attention as a potential divergence signal between management and current shareholder sentiment.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -0% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10% | 12% | 14% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $356 | $273 | $217 |
| 3% | $401 | $299 | $234 |
| 4% | $460 | $331 | $253 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $836.32.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $299 (-69.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 11% below its 5-year average P/E of 40.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedPolaris Industries (PH) is trading below its 50-day moving average but well above the 200-day, indicating a recent downturn in short-term momentum despite an overall positive trend over the past six months. The RSI at 35.8 suggests that the stock may be oversold on a near-term basis, potentially setting up for a bounce if it holds this level.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | $2.0000 | +11.1% |
| 2026-02-06 | $1.8000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-07 | $1.8000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-02 | $1.8000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-09 | $1.8000 | +10.4% |
| 2025-02-07 | $1.6300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-08 | $1.6300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-28 | $1.6300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-09 | $1.6300 | +10.1% |
| 2024-02-08 | $1.4800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-10 | $1.4800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-25 | $1.4800 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLI or VIS, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell PH shares regardless of Parker-Hannifin Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $12.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to PH through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Parker-Hannifin Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with PH. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 28 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
PH Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 PH shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.1% of the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) and 1.6% of the VIS (VIS). Across 28 tracked ETFs, approximately 14M shares (11.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest PH Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 28 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
PH Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Parker-Hannifin Corporation over the past year sits near $750.35 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $836.32 trades 11.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
PH Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Parker-Hannifin Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Parker-Hannifin Corporation converts 62% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 3.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 18 | $882.37 | $15,882.66 |
| 2026-05-13 | 1,121 | $881.34 | $987,982.14 |
| 2026-05-11 | 1,249 | $878.83 | $1.1M |
| 2026-05-07 | 65 | $902.66 | $58,672.9 |
| 2026-05-06 | 1,535 | $872.69 | $1.3M |
| 2026-05-05 | 783 | $867.75 | $679,448.25 |
| 2026-05-04 | 1,094 | $882.23 | $965,159.62 |
| 2026-04-22 | 2,735 | $972.69 | $2.7M |
| 2026-04-20 | 100 | $988.80 | $98,880 |
| 2026-04-10 | 7 | $982.99 | $6,880.93 |
| 2026-04-08 | 490 | $912.97 | $447,355.3 |
| 2026-03-31 | 2 | $861.48 | $1,722.96 |
| 2026-03-25 | 13 | $924.58 | $12,019.54 |
| 2026-03-23 | 434 | $894.41 | $388,173.94 |
| 2026-03-17 | 109 | $894.64 | $97,515.76 |
| 2026-03-06 | 508 | $965.42 | $490,433.36 |
| 2026-02-23 | 3,479 | $1022.23 | $3.6M |
| 2026-02-12 | 246 | $995.83 | $244,974.18 |
| 2026-02-11 | 1,300 | $991.57 | $1.3M |
| 2026-02-04 | 199 | $964.33 | $191,901.67 |
| 2026-01-20 | 767 | $944.27 | $724,255.09 |
| 2026-01-06 | 1,580 | $906.89 | $1.4M |
| 2025-12-30 | 5 | $890.55 | $4,452.75 |
| 2025-12-23 | 25 | $886.47 | $22,161.75 |
| 2025-12-22 | 100 | $874.81 | $87,481 |
| 2025-12-18 | 169 | $863.19 | $145,879.11 |
| 2025-12-15 | 11,488 | $884.87 | $10.2M |
| 2025-12-10 | 2,198 | $862.93 | $1.9M |
| 2025-12-09 | 3,843 | $879.67 | $3.4M |
| 2025-12-08 | 4,217 | $880.00 | $3.7M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| IR | 0.690 | 0.656 | Moderate |
| CMI | 0.681 | 0.647 | Moderate |
| WMS | 0.679 | 0.683 | Moderate |
| WAB | 0.673 | 0.680 | Moderate |
| DOV | 0.671 | 0.571 | Moderate |
| ROK | 0.668 | 0.655 | Moderate |
| EMR | 0.638 | 0.576 | Moderate |
| HST | 0.626 | 0.595 | Moderate |
| AME | 0.623 | 0.616 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare PH to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.