Nordson Corporation (NDSN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 30.7x earnings — a 31% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — NDSN is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 5.3 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $142 implies 49% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Nordson Corporation reveal a high-quality business model driven primarily by operational efficiency rather than leverage or asset intensity. The DuPont decomposition highlights that the 15.9% ROE is anchored in an exceptional net margin of 17.3%, supported by robust profitability factors, while low asset turnover and moderate equity multipliers indicate limited financial engineering. Creditworthiness appears strong with a benign Altman Z-Score of 5.1 and a clean Beneish M-Score of -2.66 suggesting minimal earnings manipulation risks. However, the capital allocation efficiency is constrained by a narrow ROIC-WACC spread of only +0.5%, indicating that current returns barely outpace the cost of capital despite the solid Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 which reflects strong financial position and profitability trends.
Valuation metrics present a significant divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models, with the stock trading at 28.5x earnings compared to a sector average of 44.2x. While this multiple appears compressed relative to peers, discounted cash flow analysis implies a fair value of $145, suggesting current prices embed substantial downside potential or that growth assumptions are overly optimistic given the -45.5% DCF upside gap. The market seems pricing in an aggressive long-term free cash flow expansion rate of 17.6%, which contrasts sharply with the modest revenue growth trajectory observed recently. This disconnect suggests investors may be anticipating a re-rating not yet supported by top-line acceleration, creating a scenario where high profitability does not fully justify the current equity valuation multiple when tested against absolute value models.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators further complicate the investment thesis, as the stock has generated negative Fama-French alpha of -1.57% annually despite exhibiting distinct factor tilts toward value and robust profitability. The presence of $21.48 million in net insider selling over the past 90 days introduces a behavioral risk signal that warrants attention alongside the valuation concerns, as management's disposition activity often precedes broader sentiment shifts or capital reallocation decisions.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.4% | 10.4% | 12.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $174 | $127 | $97 |
| 3% | $204 | $142 | $106 |
| 4% | $247 | $162 | $117 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $287.73.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.4%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $142 (-49.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 36% below its 5-year average P/E of 46.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | $0.8200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-17 | $0.8200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-11 | $0.8200 | +5.1% |
| 2025-06-18 | $0.7800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-20 | $0.7800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-02 | $0.7800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-27 | $0.7800 | +14.7% |
| 2024-05-20 | $0.6800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-16 | $0.6800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-18 | $0.6800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-21 | $0.6800 | +4.6% |
| 2023-05-22 | $0.6500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like NOBL or SDY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell NDSN shares regardless of Nordson Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to NDSN through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Nordson Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Nordson Corporation (NDSN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with NDSN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
NDSN Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 NDSN shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Nordson Corporation (NDSN) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.5% of the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and 0.5% of the SDY (SDY). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 9M shares (16.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest NDSN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
NDSN Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Nordson Corporation over the past year sits near $211.66 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $287.73 trades 35.9% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
NDSN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Nordson Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Nordson Corporation converts 78% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.4% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 6 | $278.93 | $1,673.58 |
| 2026-05-12 | 38 | $281.85 | $10,710.3 |
| 2026-04-23 | 4,870 | $279.45 | $1.4M |
| 2026-04-21 | 4,588 | $283.08 | $1.3M |
| 2026-04-16 | 1,729 | $275.00 | $475,475 |
| 2026-03-27 | 49 | $264.96 | $12,983.04 |
| 2026-03-25 | 5 | $269.19 | $1,345.95 |
| 2026-03-04 | 42 | $287.78 | $12,086.76 |
| 2026-02-23 | 44 | $290.17 | $12,767.48 |
| 2026-01-09 | 1 | $255.26 | $255.26 |
| 2026-01-08 | 118 | $252.86 | $29,837.48 |
| 2025-12-16 | 105 | $237.79 | $24,967.95 |
| 2025-12-11 | 1,906 | $236.32 | $450,425.92 |
| 2025-12-10 | 2,305 | $233.44 | $538,079.2 |
| 2025-12-01 | 17 | $237.66 | $4,040.22 |
| 2025-11-21 | 786 | $228.08 | $179,270.88 |
| 2025-11-18 | 113 | $227.79 | $25,740.27 |
| 2025-11-14 | 87 | $233.15 | $20,284.05 |
| 2025-10-28 | 483 | $238.35 | $115,123.05 |
| 2025-10-20 | 200 | $233.34 | $46,668 |
| 2025-10-14 | 1,325 | $230.52 | $305,439 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| SWK | 0.709 | 0.740 | High co-movement |
| ITW | 0.700 | 0.651 | High co-movement |
| IR | 0.686 | 0.710 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.686 | 0.711 | Moderate |
| DOV | 0.680 | 0.629 | Moderate |
| DD | 0.664 | 0.630 | Moderate |
| PPG | 0.655 | 0.670 | Moderate |
| OC | 0.639 | 0.595 | Moderate |
| TOL | 0.636 | 0.678 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare NDSN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.