Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 20.1x earnings — a 55% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — CSL is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 5.2. DCF fair value of $210 implies 41% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Carlisle Companies Incorporated present a distinct dichotomy between high capital efficiency and stagnant top-line expansion. The company demonstrates robust quality metrics, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of 14.7% that suggests strong value creation capabilities relative to the cost of capital. This strength is further illuminated by DuPont decomposition, where a net margin of 14.8%, combined with moderate asset turnover at 0.80x and leverage at 3.49x, drives an impressive ROE of 41.3%. Integrity checks reinforce this profile; the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicates solid financial stability, while a Beneish M-Score of -2.81 effectively rules out earnings manipulation concerns. However, these quality attributes are currently decoupled from growth momentum, as revenue expansion has halted with year-over-year growth registering at merely 0.3%.
Valuation dynamics reveal significant market compression relative to both historical norms and sector peers. Trading at a forward P/E of 19.3x, the stock is priced substantially below the Industrials sector average of 44.2x, suggesting a notable discount for its specific risk profile or growth trajectory. This divergence aligns with discounted cash flow modeling, which implies an intrinsic fair value of $224 per share; however, this target assumes future performance that contrasts sharply with current stagnation. The market appears to be pricing in limited upside potential given the lack of revenue acceleration, creating a scenario where high profitability metrics are not yet being rewarded by multiple expansion comparable to industry peers.
Risk assessment highlights a concerning divergence between fundamental quality and insider sentiment. While financial scores remain favorable, net insider selling totaling $28 million over the last 90 days introduces a behavioral risk factor that warrants scrutiny. This outflow contrasts with the company's strong Piotroski score, potentially signaling management's view on near-term capital allocation or valuation concerns not immediately apparent in aggregate earnings data. Consequently, the investment case rests heavily on whether future operational improvements can reignite revenue growth to justify current valuations despite the absence of recent insider accumulation.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 0% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.6% | 9.6% | 11.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $262 | $186 | $141 |
| 3% | $314 | $210 | $155 |
| 4% | $394 | $243 | $172 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $344.24.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $210 (-41.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 37% below its 5-year average P/E of 32.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCarlisle Companies Incorporated currently trades at $333.57 within the Industrials sector, presenting a snapshot where price positioning must be weighed against underlying volatility and fundamental context to gauge momentum durability. Without specific drawdown metrics or historical variance data provided in this isolated view, it remains impossible to determine if current upward pressure stems from structural earnings strength or fragile speculative alignment. The absence of defined risk parameters prevents an assessment of whether the asset is exhibiting resilient behavior under stress or merely benefiting from temporary market dislocation. In a broader technical synthesis, the reliance on a single price point highlights a gap in understanding the trajectory's stability; true momentum analysis requires observing how volatility interacts with recent pullbacks to identify support levels that have historically held during downturns. If the current valuation lacks corroborating data regarding beta or recent maximum drawdown percentages, any perceived strength may be superficial rather than indicative of long-term value creation. The market environment for industrials often introduces cyclicality that can distort short-term price action, meaning the $333.57 level alone does not confirm a sustainable trend without context on how much capital has been lost recently or how sharply prices have fluctuated over comparable periods. Ultimately, distinguishing between structural growth and fragile momentum necessitates integrating this current valuation with comprehensive risk dynamics that are currently absent from the provided dataset. The technical picture is incomplete until volatility measures clarify whether price movements represent a robust recovery or an extension of prior weakness masked by temporary sentiment shifts. Readers must evaluate how this
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | $1.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-17 | $1.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-14 | $1.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-19 | $1.1000 | +10.0% |
| 2025-05-19 | $1.0000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-18 | $1.0000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-15 | $1.0000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-20 | $1.0000 | +17.6% |
| 2024-05-17 | $0.8500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-15 | $0.8500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-14 | $0.8500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-16 | $0.8500 | +13.3% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHB or SDY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CSL shares regardless of Carlisle Companies Incorporated's individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to CSL through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Carlisle Companies Incorporated to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies OWENS CORNING (OC) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with CSL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CSL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 2 CSL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) exerts significant gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.3% of the XHB (XHB) and 0.5% of the SDY (SDY). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 20M shares (49.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.
ETFs with Highest CSL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CSL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Carlisle Companies Incorporated over the past year sits near $330.96 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $344.24 trades 4.0% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CSL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Carlisle Companies Incorporated convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Carlisle Companies Incorporated converts 79% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 5.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 5 | $360.39 | $1,801.95 |
| 2026-04-29 | 102 | $357.06 | $36,420.12 |
| 2026-04-15 | 21 | $357.71 | $7,511.91 |
| 2026-04-10 | 2 | $350.47 | $700.94 |
| 2026-03-31 | 6,019 | $325.86 | $2.0M |
| 2026-03-26 | 796 | $339.93 | $270,584.28 |
| 2026-03-24 | 1,379 | $336.88 | $464,557.52 |
| 2026-03-23 | 26 | $327.52 | $8,515.52 |
| 2026-03-19 | 198 | $338.83 | $67,088.34 |
| 2026-03-11 | 793 | $352.90 | $279,849.7 |
| 2026-02-20 | 17 | $407.65 | $6,930.05 |
| 2026-02-17 | 8,498 | $409.04 | $3.5M |
| 2026-02-11 | 21,499 | $416.44 | $9.0M |
| 2026-02-09 | 54 | $403.86 | $21,808.44 |
| 2026-02-06 | 456 | $401.01 | $182,860.56 |
| 2026-02-04 | 241 | $355.84 | $85,757.44 |
| 2026-01-12 | 1 | $354.93 | $354.93 |
| 2025-11-18 | 1 | $300.16 | $300.16 |
| 2025-11-13 | 1 | $320.80 | $320.8 |
| 2025-11-12 | 1 | $319.05 | $319.05 |
| 2025-11-10 | 1 | $318.41 | $318.41 |
| 2025-11-07 | 2 | $316.57 | $633.14 |
| 2025-11-06 | 2 | $329.23 | $658.46 |
| 2025-11-04 | 123 | $325.57 | $40,045.11 |
| 2025-10-30 | 3 | $331.23 | $993.69 |
| 2025-10-28 | 878 | $338.59 | $297,282.02 |
| 2025-10-23 | 1 | $331.72 | $331.72 |
| 2025-10-22 | 1 | $335.25 | $335.25 |
| 2025-10-20 | 16,915 | $323.87 | $5.5M |
| 2025-10-17 | 16,924 | $319.09 | $5.4M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| OC | 0.633 | 0.678 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.632 | 0.686 | Moderate |
| BLDR | 0.624 | 0.697 | Moderate |
| ALGN | 0.616 | 0.449 | Moderate |
| DOV | 0.613 | 0.626 | Moderate |
| PPG | 0.610 | 0.642 | Moderate |
| BLD | 0.610 | 0.665 | Moderate |
| IP | 0.605 | 0.610 | Moderate |
| NDSN | 0.603 | 0.677 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CSL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.