PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 11.4x earnings — a 67% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — PHM is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 6.0. DCF fair value of $235 implies 93% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of PulteGroup present a dichotomy between robust capital efficiency and current revenue headwinds. While the ROIC-WACC spread of +1.8% indicates value creation above the cost of equity, this is supported by a DuPont decomposition where high net margins (12.8%) drive returns rather than asset turnover or leverage, evidenced by an Equity Multiplier of only 1.39x. Financial integrity appears strong with an Altman Z-Score of 6.0 and a Beneish M-Score of -2.46 suggesting low earnings manipulation risk; however, the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 signals moderate financial strength amidst recent operational challenges. This is underscored by negative revenue growth of -3.5% YoY, which contrasts sharply with the historically high gross margin of 26.4%, indicating potential cyclicality or pricing pressure within the consumer cyclical sector.
Valuation metrics suggest a significant divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. The stock trades at a P/E of 10.5x, substantially below both its historical average and the sector mean of 42.1x, implying that the market is discounting future prospects heavily despite underlying profitability factors like RMW scoring robustly high at 0.898. A DCF analysis places fair value at $242, representing a theoretical upside of 105.4%, which aligns with an implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of just 5.0%. This low long-term growth assumption appears to be the primary driver compressing the multiple, as the market seems to price in limited expansion potential despite the company's demonstrated ability to generate returns on invested capital that exceed its weighted average cost of capital.
Risk and reward dynamics are further complicated by conflicting signals regarding insider activity and factor exposures. While Fama-French alpha data shows an annualized return of 14.26% relative to risk factors, indicating strong historical performance driven largely by profitability rather than value or size premiums, recent insider flow reveals $25,121,696 in net selling over the last ninety days. This significant executive divestment during a period where revenue is contracting and valuations are already depressed warrants scrutiny, potentially offsetting the attractive valuation spread and positive fundamental quality scores with concerns about future visibility or management confidence.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10.3% | 12.3% | 14.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $276 | $217 | $177 |
| 3% | $307 | $235 | $189 |
| 4% | $348 | $258 | $203 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $117.77.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $235 (+93.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 14% above its 5-year average P/E of 9.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedPHM is trading below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, indicating a downward trend in the short term despite being slightly above the longer-term average, which suggests some underlying support at current levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 29.9 points to oversold conditions, potentially hinting at reduced downside momentum or an opportunity for near-term stabilization.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | $0.2600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-16 | $0.2600 | +18.2% |
| 2025-09-16 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-17 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-18 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-17 | $0.2200 | +10.0% |
| 2024-09-17 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-18 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-18 | $0.2000 | +25.0% |
| 2023-09-15 | $0.1600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-16 | $0.1600 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHB or ONEV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell PHM shares regardless of PulteGroup, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $3.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to PHM through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in PulteGroup, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with PHM. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
PHM Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 PHM shares, reducing daily market volatility.
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.3% of the XHB (XHB) and 0.6% of the ONEV (ONEV). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 28M shares (14.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest PHM Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
PHM Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for PulteGroup, Inc. over the past year sits near $118.32 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $117.77 sits 0.5% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
PHM Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does PulteGroup, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
PulteGroup, Inc. converts 58% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 1.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 146 | $117.55 | $17,162.3 |
| 2026-05-08 | 8,154 | $116.82 | $952,550.28 |
| 2026-04-30 | 109 | $120.71 | $13,157.39 |
| 2026-04-27 | 286 | $127.56 | $36,482.16 |
| 2026-04-20 | 300 | $126.53 | $37,959 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $122.68 | $368.04 |
| 2026-04-09 | 85,163 | $120.44 | $10.3M |
| 2026-04-01 | 400 | $117.61 | $47,044 |
| 2026-03-31 | 212 | $113.72 | $24,108.64 |
| 2026-03-25 | 20 | $118.09 | $2,361.8 |
| 2026-03-16 | 48,761 | $119.19 | $5.8M |
| 2026-03-13 | 41,581 | $120.46 | $5.0M |
| 2026-03-12 | 25,000 | $123.38 | $3.1M |
| 2026-03-05 | 342 | $132.18 | $45,205.56 |
| 2026-03-02 | 101 | $137.20 | $13,857.2 |
| 2026-02-23 | 500 | $140.02 | $70,010 |
| 2026-02-20 | 42,485 | $139.61 | $5.9M |
| 2026-02-19 | 31,085 | $142.10 | $4.4M |
| 2026-02-18 | 56,555 | $141.58 | $8.0M |
| 2026-02-17 | 100 | $142.56 | $14,256 |
| 2026-02-11 | 1,831 | $137.33 | $251,451.23 |
| 2026-02-10 | 480 | $132.37 | $63,537.6 |
| 2026-02-06 | 702 | $134.05 | $94,103.1 |
| 2026-01-15 | 1,131 | $130.73 | $147,855.63 |
| 2026-01-07 | 861 | $121.15 | $104,310.15 |
| 2026-01-02 | 10 | $117.26 | $1,172.6 |
| 2025-12-23 | 5,309 | $119.11 | $632,354.99 |
| 2025-12-22 | 22,572 | $119.74 | $2.7M |
| 2025-12-17 | 400 | $124.39 | $49,756 |
| 2025-11-25 | 2 | $119.28 | $238.56 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| DHI | 0.919 | 0.889 | High co-movement |
| TMHC | 0.910 | 0.884 | High co-movement |
| KBH | 0.901 | 0.854 | High co-movement |
| TOL | 0.900 | 0.849 | High co-movement |
| MTH | 0.890 | 0.870 | High co-movement |
| LEN | 0.878 | 0.828 | High co-movement |
| NVR | 0.783 | 0.653 | High co-movement |
| BLDR | 0.745 | 0.748 | High co-movement |
| LOW | 0.733 | 0.764 | High co-movement |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare PHM to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.