Lennar Corporation (LEN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 12.9x earnings — a 63% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — LEN is in the lower valuation range. Below-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 3/9. Beneish M-Score of -1.89 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Lennar Corporation reveal a significant capital allocation challenge, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -4.9%, indicating that the company is currently destroying value relative to its cost of capital. While DuPont decomposition shows equity generation driven primarily by leverage rather than operational efficiency—with an asset turnover near unity and modest net margins—the Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 signals deteriorating financial strength, a concern amplified by negative revenue growth of -3.5% YoY. Despite these headwinds, the Altman Z-Score remains above the distress threshold at 3.9, suggesting short-term solvency is maintained, though the Beneish M-Score of -1.89 indicates no evidence of earnings manipulation masking underlying performance issues.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between market pricing and historical or peer benchmarks, with the current P/E ratio of 12.4x trading at roughly one-third of the sector average of 42.1x. This deep discount appears to reflect the negative revenue trajectory rather than an opportunity, as implied free cash flow growth over ten years is projected at a robust 50%, which seems inconsistent with current top-line contraction unless market share gains are anticipated or margins expand significantly. The disconnect suggests the market has priced in substantial downside risk regarding future demand elasticity within the consumer cyclical sector, potentially leaving little room for upside surprise given the wide gap between implied growth and realized fundamentals.
Risk-adjusted performance data further complicates the investment thesis; a Fama-French Alpha of -16.88% annually demonstrates that the stock has underperformed its risk factors significantly over time, while the Profitability Factor score of 0.740 offers some counterbalance by highlighting robust profitability characteristics relative to peers. With insider flow remaining neutral at $0 over the last ninety days and value factor exposure sitting near neutrality, there are no clear signals from management or style factors to offset the fundamental concerns regarding capital efficiency and revenue decline. The risk/reward profile appears heavily weighted toward downside protection given the negative alpha and spread, though the low valuation multiple provides a potential floor dependent on a cyclical recovery in housing demand.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 9% below its 5-year average P/E of 14.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedLennar Corporation currently trades at $85.25, presenting a snapshot where price action and moving average dynamics may reflect shifting institutional sentiment within the consumer cyclical sector. The interaction between short-term and long-term moving averages often serves as a proxy for larger capital flows; if shorter-period lines are crossing above longer ones near this level, it could suggest accumulating interest from active market participants seeking exposure to housing-related equities. Conversely, any divergence where volume spikes while price stagnates might indicate that significant holders are testing support levels before committing further resources or potentially distributing positions into existing demand. The positioning of institutional players appears contingent on whether the current valuation supports a breakout above key resistance zones established by prior trading ranges. High relative volumes accompanying upward price movements would typically signal strong conviction from large entities, whereas declining volume during rallies might imply waning enthusiasm among sophisticated traders who prefer to wait for confirmed trend establishment before entering substantial positions. Without definitive confirmation of sustained momentum or a clear break above critical technical thresholds, the broader market structure remains in a state where larger operators are likely assessing risk-reward ratios carefully rather than executing aggressive directional bets based solely on current price levels.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-04 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-10 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-03 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-23 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-29 | $0.5000 | +3.3% |
| 2024-10-09 | $0.4840 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-05 | $0.4840 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-23 | $0.4840 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-23 | $0.4840 | +33.3% |
| 2023-10-11 | $0.3630 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-06 | $0.3630 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHB or ONEY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell LEN shares regardless of Lennar Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to LEN through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Lennar Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Lennar Corporation (LEN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with LEN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
LEN Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 LEN shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Lennar Corporation (LEN) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.3% of the XHB (XHB) and 0.5% of the ONEY (ONEY). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 31M shares (14.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest LEN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
LEN Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Lennar Corporation over the past year sits near $116.72 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $90.90 sits 22.1% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
LEN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Lennar Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Lennar Corporation converts 1% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a low conversion rate suggesting heavy reinvestment. This may indicate a growth phase (building capacity) or structural capital intensity. The 99% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-5.1%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 200 | $88.38 | $17,676 |
| 2026-04-29 | 1,421 | $92.32 | $131,186.72 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $88.83 | $266.49 |
| 2026-04-13 | 1,000 | $88.97 | $88,970 |
| 2026-04-08 | 145 | $85.62 | $12,414.9 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,000 | $86.49 | $86,490 |
| 2026-03-31 | 11,611 | $84.88 | $985,541.68 |
| 2026-03-30 | 11,611 | $90.25 | $1.0M |
| 2026-03-27 | 11,611 | $91.11 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-26 | 1,082 | $92.19 | $99,749.58 |
| 2026-03-25 | 22 | $92.38 | $2,032.36 |
| 2026-03-24 | 10,154 | $93.46 | $948,992.84 |
| 2026-03-23 | 39 | $90.55 | $3,531.45 |
| 2026-03-05 | 5,661 | $106.53 | $603,066.33 |
| 2026-03-02 | 1,000 | $114.36 | $114,360 |
| 2026-02-27 | 6,097 | $112.00 | $682,864 |
| 2026-02-20 | 2 | $116.12 | $232.24 |
| 2026-02-17 | 848 | $122.28 | $103,693.44 |
| 2026-02-13 | 4 | $120.83 | $483.32 |
| 2026-02-12 | 57 | $120.99 | $6,896.43 |
| 2026-02-09 | 1,747 | $114.02 | $199,192.94 |
| 2026-02-06 | 950 | $115.37 | $109,601.5 |
| 2026-02-02 | 1,232 | $109.35 | $134,719.2 |
| 2026-01-30 | 682 | $111.23 | $75,858.86 |
| 2026-01-22 | 45,323 | $118.00 | $5.3M |
| 2026-01-14 | 64 | $123.32 | $7,892.48 |
| 2026-01-13 | 5,344 | $120.90 | $646,089.6 |
| 2026-01-12 | 5,595 | $119.25 | $667,203.75 |
| 2026-01-08 | 164 | $103.93 | $17,044.52 |
| 2026-01-06 | 4 | $105.40 | $421.6 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| PHM | 0.878 | 0.828 | High co-movement |
| DHI | 0.877 | 0.860 | High co-movement |
| MTH | 0.855 | 0.798 | High co-movement |
| KBH | 0.844 | 0.759 | High co-movement |
| TMHC | 0.828 | 0.736 | High co-movement |
| TOL | 0.807 | 0.707 | High co-movement |
| NVR | 0.754 | 0.605 | High co-movement |
| BLDR | 0.725 | 0.679 | High co-movement |
| MAS | 0.663 | 0.595 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare LEN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.