ETF · Consumer Cyclical

State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF(XLY)

$115.44
-1.62%
Expense Ratio
$21.4B
Total AUM
Holdings
Inception
Active Share vs VOO
Truly Active
0%20%60%100%
90.1%

AI Look-Through Summary

AI Generated

The portfolio is heavily skewed towards consumer cyclical names, with a whopping 96% allocation to this sector. This is not surprising given the fund's category classification and tracking error to the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500. The top holdings are also consistent with this sectoral focus, led by e-commerce giants Amazon (22.9%) and Booking Holdings (3.4%), as well as brick-and-mortar retailers Home Depot (5.7%) and TJX Companies (3.9%). The fund's market-cap profile is likely skewed towards large caps given the presence of behemoths like Amazon.

The sector mix deviates significantly from the broader market, with a much higher allocation to consumer cyclical names compared to other sectors. This concentration risk may be amplified by the dominance of a few large holdings, particularly Amazon and Tesla (19.1%), which together account for over 42% of the portfolio's weight. The fund's valuation posture is also quite aggressive, with a weighted P/E ratio of 32.8x, suggesting that investors are willing to pay a premium for growth prospects in this sector. A favorable macro environment would likely be one characterized by strong consumer spending and economic growth, while an unfavorable scenario could be marked by rising interest rates or recessionary pressures.

Generated by Qwen-32B from constituent-level data. Not investment advice. Updated: 2026-07-14 08:03:44.836186+00

🔍 Theme Alignment Audit

AI GeneratedPurity: 98/100

The investment theme implied by the name "Consumer Discretionary Select Sector" is executed with exceptional precision, as virtually every significant holding falls squarely within the Consumer Cyclical classification. The portfolio demonstrates a tight thematic focus without straying into unrelated sectors; even prominent constituents like Amazon and Tesla are categorized here based on their primary revenue drivers related to consumer goods and services rather than pure technology or industrials. There is no evidence of broad-market dilution, as the fund avoids large-cap names from non-targeted industries that often appear in sector-agnostic strategies. The composition reflects a deliberate selection process aimed at isolating specific discretionary spending patterns while maintaining strict adherence to the stated investment objective.

Concentration risk remains a defining characteristic of this structure, with the top ten holdings accounting for over seventy-two percent of total assets and two companies alone comprising nearly forty-eight percent of the portfolio. This heavy weighting in mega-cap leaders like Amazon and Tesla creates a performance profile that is heavily dependent on these specific equities rather than the broader dispersion typical of an index fund within this sector. While the sector breakdown confirms ninety-six point five percent allocation to Consumer Cyclical industries, ensuring high coherence with the theme, the lack of diversification across mid-tier or smaller-cap discretionary names means the fund behaves more like a concentrated equity vehicle than a true broad-sector benchmark. Investors seeking exposure specifically to large-cap discretionary leaders will find strong alignment here, whereas those desiring wider sector representation may observe limited differentiation from index counterparts due to this inherent concentration.

AI analysis of holdings alignment vs fund theme. Not investment advice. Updated: 2026-05-24 13:45:01.008581+00

🏢 Sector Analysis

AI Generated

The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF exhibits an allocation profile that is almost entirely concentrated within the consumer cyclical sector, accounting for 96.6% of its assets across forty holdings. This extreme focus aligns directly with a pure-play investment thesis targeting companies whose revenues fluctuate significantly alongside discretionary income levels and economic cycles. The minimal exposure to technology at 0.9% and industrials at 0.1% confirms that the fund avoids broad market diversification, instead isolating specific consumer-facing dynamics from other macroeconomic drivers. Such a narrow definition of sector boundaries means the portfolio's performance will be highly correlated with broader discretionary spending trends rather than general technological innovation or industrial output growth.

Concentration risk is further amplified by the distribution among top holdings, where Amazon and Tesla collectively represent nearly half of the fund's total assets at 47.7%. The fact that the top ten positions account for over 72% of the portfolio indicates a significant reliance on the largest market participants within this specific niche. This structure implies that idiosyncratic events affecting these two giants or shifts in their competitive landscapes could disproportionately influence overall fund volatility compared to more broadly diversified sector peers. Additionally, the inclusion of diverse business models under the consumer cyclical umbrella—from retail and automotive to home improvement and dining—suggests an attempt to capture various facets of discretionary consumption while maintaining strict adherence to the designated sector classification standards.

The factor tilts inherent in this allocation suggest a heavy weighting toward large-cap growth characteristics driven by the dominance of high-valuation technology-enabled retailers and automakers within the consumer basket. While the fund aims for sector purity, the specific composition introduces substantial beta exposure relative to changes in interest rates and consumer confidence metrics. Investors examining these data points must weigh the potential for amplified returns during robust economic expansions against the heightened susceptibility to downturns that specifically impact discretionary spending power. The absence of hedging mechanisms or diversification into defensive sectors leaves the fund's trajectory tightly bound to the cyclical nature of its primary asset class.

AI-generated sector analysis from constituent-level data. Not investment advice. Updated: 2026-05-21 03:25:47.343764+00

Flow Driver Analysis

2-Step Circle

Which larger ETFs share XLY's holdings — and mechanically drive its price through index rebalancing flows?

Approximately 100% of XLY's weight flows through these larger ETFs

Driver ETFAUMExpenseShared StocksWeight Overlap
ONEOONEO$25M4899.9%
SPTMSPTM$12B4899.9%
SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust$640B0.09%4899.9%
VCRVCR$6B4799.9%
VOOVanguard S&P 500 ETF$1.5T0.03%4799.9%

100% of XLY's portfolio by weight is also held by ONEO. When ONEO receives inflows, it mechanically buys these shared stocks — dragging XLY's NAV along regardless of any thematic or sector catalyst. Combined, the top 5 overlapping ETFs control exposure to 100% ofXLY's weight.

Overlap computed from constituent-level holdings data across 5 ETFs. Price co-movement with driver ETFs is structural, not coincidental. Not investment advice.

ETF Look-Through Dashboard

Peer through the ETF wrapper to see exactly what you own. Every metric is computed from constituent-level data.

32.2x
Weighted P/E
9.04x
Weighted P/B
$947B
Wtd Avg Market Cap

Weighted metrics calculated based on 98% of fund assets with available data.

Herfindahl-Hirschman Concentration Index

010002000300040001017
Well Diversified
Top 5: 55.5%Top 10: 69.0%

Morningstar-Style Box

Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
Large Growth

Sector & Cap Explorer

Consumer Cyclical96.3%
Visualization Mode

ETF Fundamental Radar

Total Analysis
100% Weight
Market Cap
Large
Risk Profile
Moderate

Operational health is mixed, with the bulk of weight in the mid-range (4–6) Piotroski scores.

Piotroski F-Score (Operational Health)

Score 0-9: Measures Profitability, Leverage, and Efficiency

↑ Weight (%)100%80%60%40%20%
3%
0–3 Weak
83%
4–6 Average
14%
7–9 Strong

Computed by rolling up individual stock Piotroski F-Scores, Altman Z-Scores, and Beneish M-Scores weighted by each constituent's allocation.

Dividend Safety True-Up

Deterministic
67%
Wtd FCF Payout Ratio
1.07%
TTM Yield
Safe
Dividend Durability
67% of FCF
0% (retains all cash)50%100% (pays out everything)

The dividend-paying companies inside XLY collectively pay out 67% of their Free Cash Flow to maintain the current yield. This is a sustainable payout level with moderate room for dividend growth. Based on 46% of fund weight in dividend-paying stocks.

FCF Payout Ratio = Dividends Paid / Free Cash Flow, weighted by constituent allocation. Not investment advice.

Earnings vs. Price Decomposition

Proprietary
+4.3%
ETF 1Y Return
-8.4%
Wtd Earnings Growth
+12.7%
Multiple Expansion
P/E Inflation

XLY is up 4.3% over the last 12 months. The underlying weighted earnings growth of its constituents is -8.4%. The remaining +12.7% of performance is driven by multiple expansion (P/E inflation) — prices rose faster than earnings grew.

Earnings growth = weighted average YoY EPS growth of all constituents (capped at ±500% to limit outlier distortion). Based on 97% of fund weight with earnings data. Not investment advice.

Value Creation Map

ROIC vs WACC

What percentage of XLY's weight is allocated to companies that create economic value (ROIC > WACC) vs. destroy it?

47% Creators
53% Destroyers
Value Creators (ROIC > WACC)46.2%
Value Destroyers51.9%

Of XLY's analyzed weight, 47% is invested in companies earning more than their cost of capital — genuine value creators. The remaining 53% consists of companies whose ROIC falls below their WACC, effectively destroying shareholder value with every dollar invested.

ROIC-WACC spread for 98% of fund weight with available data. Not investment advice.

Concentration Risk Monitor

CRITICAL
23.3%
Largest Holding
AMZN
47.3%
Top 3 Weight
10
Effective # of Stocks
53%
Top Stock Var. Share
Portfolio weight concentration
AMZN
TSLA
Other 43 stocks

AMZN at 23.3% has captured XLY's portfolio. The top 3 holdings (47%) dominate the fund's variance — the remaining 45 stocks provide minimal diversification.XLY effectively behaves like a 10-stock portfolio, not a 48-stock one.

Effective # of Stocks = 1 / HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index). Variance share approximated as w² / Σw². Not investment advice.

Passive Crowding Score

MODERATE

How much of each constituent's market cap is structurally locked in passive ETFs — a proxy for liquidity fragility during sell-offs.

38/ 100
Wtd Avg Passive Ownership11.5%
Most Crowded HoldingTSCO (23.7%)
Least CrowdedLVS (5.6%)
Coverage100% of fund weight
0 — Low255075100 — Extreme

XLY has a Passive Crowding Score of 38/100. On average, 11.5% of the market capitalization of XLY's underlying holdings is structurally locked in passive ETF vehicles. This indicates moderate passive ownership density. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption activity can amplify short-term volatility in the underlying holdings.

Passive $ = Σ(ETF AUM × holding weight) across all 48 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds). Not investment advice.

Under the Hood — Top 15 Constituents

Top 10 Concentration69.0%
#TickerCompanyWeightP/EF-Score
1AMZN
AMAZON.COM INC
Consumer Cyclical
23.29%
29.9x6/9
2TSLA
TESLA INC
Consumer Cyclical
18.25%
349.4x5/9
3HD
HOME DEPOT INC
Consumer Cyclical
5.75%
24.7x4/9
4MCD
MCDONALD S CORP
Consumer Cyclical
4.20%
22.5x6/9
5TJX
TJX COMPANIES INC
Consumer Cyclical
4.01%
30.1x7/9
6BKNG
BOOKING HOLDINGS INC
Consumer Cyclical
3.56%
24.3x5/9
7SBUX
STARBUCKS CORP
Consumer Cyclical
3.07%
82.4x5/9
8LOW
LOWE S COS INC
Consumer Cyclical
3.01%
18.3x5/9
9MAR
MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL CL A
Consumer Cyclical
2.02%
38.4x7/9
10ROST
ROSS STORES INC
Consumer Cyclical
1.86%
32.5x6/9
11HLT
HILTON WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS IN
Consumer Cyclical
1.83%
49.3x5/9
12RCL
ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD
Consumer Cyclical
1.82%
17.9x7/9
13ORLY
O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC
Consumer Cyclical
1.78%
28.1x7/9
14DASH
DOORDASH INC A
Consumer Cyclical
1.75%
88.5x5/9
15GM
GENERAL MOTORS CO
Consumer Cyclical
1.74%
28.3x5/9
The bottom 33 stocks in XLY account for only 22.0% of the total fund weight.

Historical Holdings Snapshots

Browse how XLY’s holdings have changed across SEC filing dates. Showing top holdings per snapshot.

2026-07-18

15 holdings · 78.0% tracked weight
#TickerWeightSharesMarket Value
1AMZN23.29%21,442,576
2TSLA18.25%10,739,362
3HD5.75%3,799,498
4MCD4.20%3,534,195
5TJX4.01%5,955,398
6BKNG3.56%4,434,136
7SBUX3.07%6,521,802
8LOW3.01%3,204,872
9MAR2.02%1,252,448
10ROST1.86%1,843,515
11HLT1.83%1,302,746
12RCL1.82%1,427,256
13ORLY1.78%4,742,306
14DASH1.75%2,165,563
15GM1.74%5,159,705

2026-07-17

15 holdings · 78.2% tracked weight
#TickerWeightSharesMarket Value
1AMZN23.84%21,387,836
2TSLA18.47%10,711,942
3HD5.66%3,789,798
4MCD4.08%3,525,175
5TJX3.92%5,940,198
6BKNG3.53%4,422,816
7SBUX2.99%6,505,152
8LOW2.93%3,196,692
9MAR2.02%1,249,248
10HLT1.87%1,299,416
11RCL1.82%1,423,616
12ROST1.82%1,838,805
13DASH1.80%2,160,033
14GM1.75%5,146,535
15ORLY1.71%4,730,196

2026-07-16

15 holdings · 78.0% tracked weight
#TickerWeightSharesMarket Value
1AMZN23.36%21,327,622
2TSLA18.73%10,681,780
3HD5.65%3,779,128
4MCD4.18%3,515,253
5TJX3.94%5,923,478
6BKNG3.41%4,410,364
7SBUX3.05%6,486,837
8LOW2.93%3,187,694
9MAR2.00%1,245,728
10HLT1.87%1,295,753
11ROST1.79%1,833,624
12DASH1.79%2,153,950
13ORLY1.79%4,716,875
14RCL1.78%1,419,612
15GM1.75%5,132,048

2026-07-15

15 holdings · 78.0% tracked weight
#TickerWeightSharesMarket Value
1AMZN23.32%21,349,518
2TSLA18.64%10,692,748
3HD5.63%3,783,008
4MCD4.24%3,518,861
5TJX3.94%5,929,558
6BKNG3.43%4,414,892
7SBUX3.08%6,493,497
8LOW2.93%3,190,966
9MAR2.00%1,247,008
10HLT1.85%1,297,085
11ORLY1.82%4,721,719
12RCL1.81%1,421,068
13DASH1.80%2,156,162
14ROST1.78%1,835,508
15GM1.74%5,137,316

2026-07-14

15 holdings · 78.0% tracked weight
#TickerWeightSharesMarket Value
1AMZN22.89%21,250,986
2TSLA19.06%10,643,392
3HD5.68%3,765,548
4MCD4.22%3,502,625
5TJX3.92%5,902,198
6BKNG3.44%4,394,516
7SBUX3.01%6,463,527
8LOW2.95%3,176,242
9MAR2.05%1,241,248
10HLT1.90%1,291,091
11DASH1.81%2,146,208
12ROST1.79%1,827,030
13ORLY1.78%4,699,921
14RCL1.77%1,414,516
15GM1.75%5,113,610

2026-07-13

15 holdings · 78.2% tracked weight
#TickerWeightSharesMarket Value
1AMZN23.12%21,250,986
2TSLA19.05%10,643,392
3HD5.62%3,765,548
4MCD4.26%3,502,625
5TJX3.92%5,902,198
6BKNG3.40%4,394,516
7SBUX3.03%6,463,527
8LOW2.98%3,176,242
9MAR2.04%1,241,248
10HLT1.92%1,291,091
11DASH1.82%2,146,208
12RCL1.79%1,414,516
13ROST1.77%1,827,030
14ORLY1.76%4,699,921
15GM1.73%5,113,610

Source: SEC filings and fund provider disclosures. Shows last 6 snapshot dates, top 15 holdings per date by weight.

Risk Profile

23.0%
Annual Volatility
0.12
Sharpe (1Y)
-15.1%
Max Drawdown (5Y)

Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Computed from 1,200+ trading days with 5% risk-free rate.

Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure

Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this ETF's returns.

1.14
Market β
+0.353
Size (SMB)
Small-cap tilt
-0.105
Value (HML)
Growth tilt
+0.313
Profit (RMW)
Robust
+0.058
Invest (CMA)
Neutral
Alpha (annual): -5.38%
R²: 82.9%of variance explained by 5 factors

Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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What Drove XLY Today?

Daily return attribution — which holdings contributed most (and least) to the fund's move.

Fund move:-1.62%(2026-07-17)

Top Contributors

+0.013%
+0.008%
+0.006%

Top Detractors

-0.151%
-0.248%
-0.477%

Attribution = holding weight × stock daily return. Only the top contributors and detractors are shown.

Technical Setup

AI Generated

The XLY ETF is trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a short-term downtrend relative to recent price action. The RSI at 34.7 suggests the near-term momentum may be weakening but still within neutral territory, not yet signaling oversold conditions.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the ETF's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

Loading beta chart...
Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Yield & Income

1.07%
TTM Yield
30-Day SEC Yield
5Y Div CAGR

Sector Drift Over Time

How XLY’s sector allocation has shifted across snapshots. Use the slider to travel through time.

2026-07-1894 snapshots
Consumer Cyclical96.3%
Other2.7%
Technology1.0%
Change since 2026-03-26
Industrials
-0.2%
Consumer Cyclical
+0.1%
2026-03-262026-07-18

Active Conviction Tracker

Shares bought and sold between the latest two data snapshots — reveals what the fund manager is actually doing.

Comparing 2026-07-172026-07-1848 buys, 0 sells

Positions Increased (48)

BUY-
1.8M2.2M+320K (+17.4%)
0.01%(+0.00)
BUYF
22.3M22.4M+57K (+0.3%)
1.38%(-0.00)
BUYAMZN
21.4M21.4M+55K (+0.3%)
23.29%(-0.55)
BUYTSLA
10.7M10.7M+27K (+0.3%)
18.25%(-0.22)
BUYCCL
7.3M7.4M+19K (+0.3%)
0.86%(+0.01)
BUYCMG
7.3M7.3M+19K (+0.3%)
1.09%(-0.02)
BUYNKE
6.8M6.9M+18K (+0.3%)
1.33%(+0.05)
BUYSBUX
6.5M6.5M+17K (+0.3%)
3.07%(+0.08)

Positions Decreased (0)

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Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-07-17.

SecuritiesDB is for informational purposes only. Not investment advice.