Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 17.4x earnings — a 50% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — RCL is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 2.2. DCF fair value of $29 implies 90% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company exhibits a narrow economic moat, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of merely +0.2%, indicating that capital generation barely outpaces the cost of financing despite robust leverage and margins. While DuPont decomposition reveals high returns driven primarily by exceptional net margins at 23.8% rather than asset efficiency or turnover, this profitability is tempered by a weak Profitability Factor score of -0.278 in Fama-French models. Credit metrics present a mixed signal; the Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggests strong fundamental health and momentum, yet the Altman Z-Score of 2.2 places the entity in the "gray zone" between safety and distress, contrasting sharply with its low Beneish M-Score of -2.85 which effectively rules out earnings manipulation risks.
Valuation analysis highlights a significant discrepancy between market pricing and discounted cash flow models. The current P/E ratio of 17.5x appears compressed relative to the implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 35.7%, yet the DCF fair value calculation suggests substantial downside, with an upside metric showing -89.3% against a $29 target price. This divergence implies that current market pricing may be discounting future cash flows more aggressively than the model assumes or is reacting to specific sector headwinds not fully captured in the growth projection. The stock carries a distinct value tilt with a Value Factor score of 0.355, potentially reflecting market skepticism regarding sustainability despite strong historical margins.
Insider activity presents a notable cautionary signal, as net insider selling totaling $626 million over the last 90 days suggests management may perceive near-term headwinds or be reducing exposure to current valuations. While the high Fama-French Alpha of 31.86% indicates significant outperformance relative to traditional risk factors in recent periods, this momentum must be weighed against the precarious credit profile and the stark contrast between insider disposition and shareholder returns. The convergence of a narrow spread on capital efficiency, gray-zone solvency metrics, and heavy insider offloading creates an environment where the reported profitability may not translate into durable long-term equity value without further fundamental validation.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 9% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 12.2% | 14.2% | 16.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $41 | $23 | $11 |
| 3% | $50 | $29 | $14 |
| 4% | $60 | $35 | $18 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $290.80.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=14.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $29 (-89.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 63% above its 5-year average P/E of 10.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | $1.5000 | +50.0% |
| 2025-12-26 | $1.0000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-25 | $1.0000 | +33.3% |
| 2025-06-04 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-07 | $0.7500 | +36.4% |
| 2024-12-27 | $0.5500 | +37.5% |
| 2024-09-20 | $0.4000 | -48.7% |
| 2020-03-05 | $0.7800 | 0.0% |
| 2019-12-19 | $0.7800 | 0.0% |
| 2019-09-19 | $0.7800 | +11.4% |
| 2019-06-03 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2019-03-06 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IWP or VOT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell RCL shares regardless of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $8.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to RCL through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with RCL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 21 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
RCL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 RCL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.3% of the IWP (IWP) and 1.5% of the VOT (VOT). Across 21 tracked ETFs, approximately 31M shares (11.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest RCL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 21 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
RCL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. over the past year sits near $280.89 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $290.80 trades 3.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
RCL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. converts 17% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a low conversion rate suggesting heavy reinvestment. This may indicate a growth phase (building capacity) or structural capital intensity. The 83% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.2% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 15 | $264.20 | $3,963 |
| 2026-05-13 | 19 | $258.12 | $4,904.28 |
| 2026-05-11 | 4,656 | $275.24 | $1.3M |
| 2026-05-07 | 5,202 | $287.08 | $1.5M |
| 2026-05-06 | 48 | $263.98 | $12,671.04 |
| 2026-05-05 | 7,630 | $259.48 | $2.0M |
| 2026-05-01 | 1,080 | $263.76 | $284,860.8 |
| 2026-04-30 | 33 | $254.01 | $8,382.33 |
| 2026-04-20 | 1,763 | $285.48 | $503,301.24 |
| 2026-04-16 | 54 | $282.31 | $15,244.74 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2,243 | $276.94 | $621,176.42 |
| 2026-04-08 | 8,758 | $267.71 | $2.3M |
| 2026-03-25 | 26 | $273.39 | $7,108.14 |
| 2026-03-23 | 1,001 | $263.65 | $263,913.65 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2,954 | $272.00 | $803,488 |
| 2026-03-17 | 9,965 | $280.81 | $2.8M |
| 2026-03-11 | 34,816 | $285.03 | $9.9M |
| 2026-02-26 | 221,444 | $313.00 | $69.3M |
| 2026-02-23 | 700 | $315.09 | $220,563 |
| 2026-02-17 | 17,876 | $319.61 | $5.7M |
| 2026-02-11 | 71 | $347.30 | $24,658.3 |
| 2026-02-10 | 1,074 | $348.03 | $373,784.22 |
| 2026-02-09 | 300 | $348.00 | $104,400 |
| 2026-02-06 | 601 | $326.09 | $195,980.09 |
| 2026-02-05 | 184 | $328.65 | $60,471.6 |
| 2026-02-04 | 1,029 | $326.29 | $335,752.41 |
| 2026-02-02 | 30,760 | $324.65 | $10.0M |
| 2026-01-30 | 25,244 | $345.98 | $8.7M |
| 2026-01-29 | 565 | $291.60 | $164,754 |
| 2026-01-28 | 107 | $290.58 | $31,092.06 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CCL | 0.788 | 0.792 | High co-movement |
| LUV | 0.617 | 0.659 | Moderate |
| HLT | 0.605 | 0.575 | Moderate |
| MAR | 0.578 | 0.542 | Moderate |
| TFC | 0.540 | 0.452 | Moderate |
| AXP | 0.531 | 0.424 | Moderate |
| DAL | 0.529 | 0.495 | Moderate |
| WTFC | 0.529 | 0.453 | Moderate |
| FNB | 0.525 | 0.444 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare RCL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.