Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 12.0x earnings — a 73% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — DAL is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.5. DCF fair value of $168 implies 151% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this Industrials sector participant present a divergence between accounting profitability and capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition reveals a robust 24.0% ROE driven primarily by high leverage (Equity Multiplier at 3.90x) rather than operational margin expansion or asset turnover, the negative -0.7% spread indicates that returns on invested capital currently fail to cover the cost of capital. This structural weakness is reinforced by an Altman Z-Score of 1.4, signaling elevated distress risk, even as a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and Beneish M-Score of -2.71 suggest reasonable financial health without significant earnings manipulation signals. The business model relies heavily on leverage to generate returns while posting modest revenue growth of just 2.8% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics display a stark disconnect between current market pricing and discounted cash flow models, suggesting the stock trades at a deep discount relative to its intrinsic value assumptions. Trading at an 8.7x P/E compared to a sector average of 32.1x implies significant downside risk or depressed growth expectations are already embedded in the price tag. However, the DCF model assigns a fair value that suggests substantial upside potential if long-term free cash flow can grow according to the modeled 3.4% annual rate over the next decade. This wide gap between current multiples and implied valuation indicates the market may be pricing in persistent operational headwinds or capital structure risks not fully reflected in the DCF inputs.
Risk-adjusted performance data offers a mixed picture regarding future alpha generation relative to style factors. The security exhibits a positive 2.00% annual Fama-French Alpha, indicating it has historically outperformed its risk-adjusted benchmark, supported by a distinct value tilt with an HML factor of 0.210. Conversely, the Profitability Factor (RMW) registers near neutrality at 0.006, aligning with the weak ROIC-WACC spread observed in fundamentals. This alpha generation occurs despite notable insider activity showing $77.85 million in net selling over the last ninety days, which may reflect management's view on valuation or capital allocation priorities amidst the company's high-leverage profile and distress risk indicators.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 3% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.9% | 10.9% | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $204 | $152 | $118 |
| 3% | $236 | $168 | $129 |
| 4% | $280 | $190 | $141 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $80.02.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $168 (+151.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 36% above its 5-year average P/E of 7.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current technical landscape for Delta Air Lines, Inc. presents a complex interplay of price action and volume dynamics that often warrants close observation by institutional participants. With the stock trading at $70.24 within the Industrials sector, the proximity to key moving average levels could indicate periods where larger market players are recalibrating their exposure rather than executing decisive directional moves. If short-term averages begin to converge with longer-term trends while volume remains subdued, this frequently suggests a consolidation phase where institutions may be accumulating or distributing positions quietly without triggering significant price volatility. Conversely, any sudden divergence between rising prices and declining volume might signal weakening momentum among sophisticated traders who typically lead market direction. Such patterns often precede shifts in sentiment as larger entities adjust their hedges or rebalance portfolios based on macroeconomic factors specific to the airline industry. The absence of strong breakout volume above critical resistance zones implies that capital inflows are not yet aggressive enough to sustain a rapid ascent, potentially leaving room for profit-taking by those who entered earlier at lower valuations. Ultimately, the interplay between these technical metrics does not dictate immediate action but rather highlights areas where market structure is evolving. Institutional behavior in this context appears cautious, characterized by waiting for clearer confirmation before committing substantial resources to either side of the trade. This neutral positioning allows larger players to assess how broader economic indicators will impact airline profitability without prematurely altering their strategic stance based on short-term fluctuations alone.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | $0.1880 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-26 | $0.1880 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-16 | $0.1880 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-31 | $0.1880 | +25.3% |
| 2025-05-13 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-27 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-10 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-30 | $0.1500 | +50.0% |
| 2024-05-13 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-23 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-11 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-14 | $0.1000 | -75.2% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XTN or XLI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell DAL shares regardless of Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $5.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to DAL through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Delta Air Lines, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with DAL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
DAL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 DAL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.9% of the XTN (XTN) and 0.9% of the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 92M shares (14.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest DAL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
DAL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Delta Air Lines, Inc. over the past year sits near $59.48 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $80.02 trades 34.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
DAL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Delta Air Lines, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Delta Air Lines, Inc. converts 41% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 59% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-0.8%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 1,273 | $71.05 | $90,446.65 |
| 2026-05-13 | 7,041 | $70.71 | $497,869.11 |
| 2026-05-12 | 5,357 | $71.20 | $381,418.4 |
| 2026-05-11 | 8,570 | $73.33 | $628,438.1 |
| 2026-05-08 | 6,168 | $73.11 | $450,942.48 |
| 2026-05-07 | 6,154 | $73.34 | $451,334.36 |
| 2026-05-06 | 6,200 | $70.86 | $439,332 |
| 2026-05-05 | 4,469 | $68.50 | $306,126.5 |
| 2026-05-04 | 7,668 | $68.98 | $528,938.64 |
| 2026-04-28 | 1,509 | $68.20 | $102,913.8 |
| 2026-04-24 | 159 | $68.37 | $10,870.83 |
| 2026-04-22 | 101 | $70.22 | $7,092.22 |
| 2026-04-21 | 41 | $71.21 | $2,919.61 |
| 2026-04-20 | 4,461 | $71.72 | $319,942.92 |
| 2026-04-16 | 249 | $71.99 | $17,925.51 |
| 2026-04-15 | 1,126 | $71.70 | $80,734.2 |
| 2026-04-07 | 171 | $66.78 | $11,419.38 |
| 2026-04-06 | 2,255 | $66.76 | $150,543.8 |
| 2026-03-31 | 89,586 | $63.19 | $5.7M |
| 2026-03-25 | 154 | $66.65 | $10,264.1 |
| 2026-03-24 | 6,763 | $65.13 | $440,474.19 |
| 2026-03-20 | 1,068 | $65.01 | $69,430.68 |
| 2026-03-19 | 384,062 | $63.81 | $24.5M |
| 2026-03-18 | 1,145 | $64.83 | $74,230.35 |
| 2026-03-17 | 1,551 | $60.84 | $94,362.84 |
| 2026-03-16 | 1,047 | $58.78 | $61,542.66 |
| 2026-03-11 | 49,430 | $59.27 | $2.9M |
| 2026-03-04 | 32,491 | $64.60 | $2.1M |
| 2026-02-24 | 458,890 | $66.88 | $30.7M |
| 2026-02-09 | 1,200 | $75.35 | $90,420 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| UAL | 0.904 | 0.897 | High co-movement |
| AAL | 0.847 | 0.822 | High co-movement |
| LUV | 0.665 | 0.670 | Moderate |
| USB | 0.650 | 0.652 | Moderate |
| ASB | 0.647 | 0.629 | Moderate |
| CFG | 0.643 | 0.625 | Moderate |
| ONB | 0.641 | 0.595 | Moderate |
| CCL | 0.640 | 0.640 | Moderate |
| MTB | 0.632 | 0.601 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare DAL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.