United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 10.3x earnings — a 77% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — UAL is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 1.4. DCF fair value of $46 implies 51% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of United Airlines Holdings reveal a capital allocation structure where the ROIC-WACC spread stands at -0.3%, indicating that current returns on invested capital are marginally below the cost of equity, despite a robust DuPont-decomposed ROE of 21.9%. This high return is driven primarily by significant financial leverage (Equity Multiplier of 5.0x) and moderate asset turnover rather than operational efficiency or expansive net margins of 5.7%. While the Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggests strong balance sheet strength, the Altman Z-Score of 1.3 flags elevated bankruptcy risk relative to historical norms, creating a tension between apparent profitability metrics and underlying solvency concerns.
Valuation analysis highlights a substantial divergence between current pricing and intrinsic value models; with a P/E ratio of 9.0x significantly below the sector average of 44.2x, the stock appears deeply discounted on traditional multiples. However, DCF modeling implies a fair value of $51, which corresponds to -44.1% downside from current levels based on an implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of only 2.9%. This pricing disconnect suggests the market is not merely penalizing for weak profitability factors (RMW: -0.326) but may be incorporating a severe discount regarding future expansion capabilities and capital efficiency in this cyclical industrial sector.
Risk assessment indicators further complicate the investment thesis, as negative Fama-French alpha of -1.65% annually indicates underperformance relative to size and value benchmarks over the measured period. Although the stock exhibits a positive HML tilt (0.271) aligning with its undervalued status, recent insider activity shows $2,2 million in net selling over 90 days, which often precedes further price pressure or signals management's view of limited near-term upside. The Beneish M-Score of -2.67 offers some reassurance against earnings manipulation, yet the combination of distressed Z-score metrics and negative alpha suggests a high-risk environment where current valuation levels may reflect persistent structural headwinds rather than temporary dislocation.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.2% | 9.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $67 | $37 | $20 |
| 3% | $87 | $46 | $25 |
| 4% | $121 | $59 | $32 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $108.82.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $46 (-51.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 18% above its 5-year average P/E of 8.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe stock is trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a technical weakness. With the RSI at 30.9, which falls into oversold territory, this suggests that near-term momentum may be approaching a potential bottoming phase.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2008-01-07 | $2.1500 | — |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XTN or XLI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell UAL shares regardless of United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to UAL through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in United Airlines Holdings, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with UAL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 26 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
UAL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 UAL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.5% of the XTN (XTN) and 0.6% of the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI). Across 26 tracked ETFs, approximately 46M shares (14.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest UAL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 26 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
UAL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for United Airlines Holdings, Inc. over the past year sits near $91.81 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $108.82 trades 18.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
UAL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does United Airlines Holdings, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. converts 30% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 70% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-0.6%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 3,200 | $99.58 | $318,656 |
| 2026-05-04 | 200 | $92.52 | $18,504 |
| 2026-05-01 | 159 | $90.00 | $14,310 |
| 2026-04-30 | 53 | $88.62 | $4,696.86 |
| 2026-04-20 | 8,415 | $101.80 | $856,647 |
| 2026-04-17 | 1 | $95.03 | $95.03 |
| 2026-04-15 | 255 | $97.20 | $24,786 |
| 2026-04-14 | 397 | $95.20 | $37,794.4 |
| 2026-04-13 | 160 | $96.40 | $15,424 |
| 2026-04-09 | 615 | $96.30 | $59,224.5 |
| 2026-04-08 | 10,752 | $89.29 | $960,046.08 |
| 2026-04-07 | 251 | $90.97 | $22,833.47 |
| 2026-04-06 | 516 | $92.21 | $47,580.36 |
| 2026-04-02 | 12,984 | $95.08 | $1.2M |
| 2026-03-25 | 213 | $93.56 | $19,928.28 |
| 2026-03-24 | 12 | $93.96 | $1,127.52 |
| 2026-03-23 | 9 | $89.95 | $809.55 |
| 2026-03-18 | 1,397 | $93.19 | $130,186.43 |
| 2026-03-17 | 918 | $90.28 | $82,877.04 |
| 2026-03-13 | 8,083 | $86.53 | $699,421.99 |
| 2026-03-04 | 7 | $102.54 | $717.78 |
| 2026-02-26 | 327 | $112.87 | $36,908.49 |
| 2026-02-25 | 335 | $112.59 | $37,717.65 |
| 2026-02-19 | 2,938 | $116.93 | $343,540.34 |
| 2026-02-18 | 2,462 | $114.02 | $280,717.24 |
| 2026-02-12 | 10 | $113.94 | $1,139.4 |
| 2026-02-10 | 16,618 | $116.20 | $1.9M |
| 2026-02-09 | 243 | $115.91 | $28,166.13 |
| 2026-02-04 | 371 | $110.86 | $41,129.06 |
| 2026-01-28 | 395 | $104.04 | $41,095.8 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| DAL | 0.904 | 0.897 | High co-movement |
| AAL | 0.844 | 0.848 | High co-movement |
| CCL | 0.626 | 0.635 | Moderate |
| FNB | 0.624 | 0.638 | Moderate |
| ASB | 0.618 | 0.620 | Moderate |
| LUV | 0.617 | 0.617 | Moderate |
| GS | 0.617 | 0.680 | Moderate |
| COF | 0.616 | 0.639 | Moderate |
| ONB | 0.612 | 0.585 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare UAL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.