PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 16.2x earnings — a 56% discount to the sector average of 36.7x — PPG is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 3.7. DCF fair value of $60 implies 45% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of PPG Industries reveal a capital allocation profile where the ROIC-WACC spread narrows to just 0.5%, indicating that current returns barely exceed the cost of equity despite solid operational efficiency metrics. This modest economic moat is underpinned by a DuPont-decomposed ROE of 19.5%, driven primarily by high leverage (Equity Multiplier of 2.73x) rather than superior margin expansion or asset turnover, while profitability remains robust with a net margin of 9.9% and gross margins at 41.3%. Credit risk appears contained given an Altman Z-Score of 3.7 and a clean Beneish M-Score of -2.46 suggesting low earnings manipulation risk, yet the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 signals moderate financial strength that lacks recent momentum improvements, evidenced by stagnant revenue growth of merely 0.2% year-over-year.
Valuation analysis suggests significant market divergence from intrinsic worth, with current trading multiples at 14.9x P/E substantially discounting the sector average of 36.1x. A DCF model projecting a fair value of $63 implies approximately -40.9% downside potential relative to current prices, reflecting skepticism about the implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 21.3%. The equity risk premium is further complicated by factor exposures; while the stock exhibits strong profitability characteristics with an RMW alpha of 0.555, it suffers from a negative Fama-French alpha of -7.83% annually and a value tilt mismatch indicated by a Value Factor (HML) of -0.190, suggesting underperformance relative to its growth classification within the materials sector.
Insider activity over the last 90 days shows net selling totaling $15.2 million, adding a layer of caution regarding management's immediate outlook despite the company's historical profitability profile. The synthesis of these data points presents an asset with deep value characteristics and low credit distress risk that is currently trading at a steep discount to its calculated intrinsic value, yet this gap coincides with stagnant top-line growth and negative factor-adjusted returns over the past year. Investors must weigh whether the depressed valuation adequately compensates for the lack of revenue acceleration and persistent underperformance on standard alpha factors before concluding on total return potential.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 0% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.2% | 10.2% | 12.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $75 | $54 | $40 |
| 3% | $89 | $60 | $45 |
| 4% | $109 | $70 | $50 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $113.64.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $60 (-45.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 59% below its 5-year average P/E of 38.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedPPG's stock is trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a recent decline in price compared to short-term and medium-term trends. The RSI reading of 25.3 suggests that the stock may be experiencing weak momentum or oversold conditions based on recent performance.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-20 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-10 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-11 | $0.7100 | +4.4% |
| 2025-05-12 | $0.6800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-21 | $0.6800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-12 | $0.6800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-12 | $0.6800 | +4.6% |
| 2024-05-09 | $0.6500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-15 | $0.6500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-09 | $0.6500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-09 | $0.6500 | +4.8% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLB or VAW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell PPG shares regardless of PPG Industries, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $3.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to PPG through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in PPG Industries, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies LINDE PLC (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with PPG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
PPG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 PPG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.0% of the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) and 1.6% of the VAW (VAW). Across 32 tracked ETFs, approximately 40M shares (17.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest PPG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 32 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
PPG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for PPG Industries, Inc. over the past year sits near $103.56 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $113.64 trades 9.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
PPG Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does PPG Industries, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
PPG Industries, Inc. converts 41% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 59% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.3% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 714 | $105.46 | $75,298.44 |
| 2026-05-13 | 1,212 | $106.38 | $128,932.56 |
| 2026-04-30 | 36,889 | $104.69 | $3.9M |
| 2026-04-28 | 7,268 | $110.30 | $801,660.4 |
| 2026-04-27 | 1,665 | $109.80 | $182,817 |
| 2026-04-16 | 5,205 | $107.72 | $560,682.6 |
| 2026-04-15 | 14,325 | $110.54 | $1.6M |
| 2026-04-13 | 8,687 | $110.33 | $958,436.71 |
| 2026-04-08 | 39,997 | $102.24 | $4.1M |
| 2026-03-27 | 102 | $105.31 | $10,741.62 |
| 2026-03-25 | 23 | $103.42 | $2,378.66 |
| 2026-03-17 | 16 | $103.45 | $1,655.2 |
| 2026-03-06 | 170 | $111.87 | $19,017.9 |
| 2026-02-27 | 2,678 | $123.48 | $330,679.44 |
| 2026-02-23 | 11,113 | $126.53 | $1.4M |
| 2026-02-20 | 200 | $124.25 | $24,850 |
| 2026-02-19 | 7,274 | $128.25 | $932,890.5 |
| 2026-02-17 | 12 | $131.34 | $1,576.08 |
| 2026-02-13 | 4,000 | $131.56 | $526,240 |
| 2026-02-11 | 9,284 | $129.14 | $1.2M |
| 2026-02-10 | 44 | $127.59 | $5,613.96 |
| 2026-02-06 | 4,328 | $124.42 | $538,489.76 |
| 2026-02-03 | 82 | $116.46 | $9,549.72 |
| 2026-02-02 | 5,905 | $115.63 | $682,795.15 |
| 2026-01-20 | 36,727 | $110.22 | $4.0M |
| 2026-01-06 | 32,421 | $105.21 | $3.4M |
| 2025-12-30 | 18,369 | $104.25 | $1.9M |
| 2025-12-29 | 27,257 | $104.32 | $2.8M |
| 2025-12-22 | 1,505 | $102.68 | $154,533.4 |
| 2025-12-12 | 437 | $102.76 | $44,906.12 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MAS | 0.717 | 0.721 | High co-movement |
| ITW | 0.717 | 0.672 | High co-movement |
| SHW | 0.712 | 0.717 | High co-movement |
| OC | 0.670 | 0.642 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.669 | 0.660 | Moderate |
| NDSN | 0.655 | 0.670 | Moderate |
| TOL | 0.653 | 0.664 | Moderate |
| MTH | 0.652 | 0.677 | Moderate |
| DOV | 0.646 | 0.591 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare PPG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.