The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicSHW trades at 29.2x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 36.7x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 3.8. DCF fair value of $259 implies 22% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this basic materials leader demonstrate a robust capital allocation framework, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of +4.3%, indicating value creation that exceeds the cost of equity and debt financing. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the 55.9% return on equity is driven primarily by significant leverage (Equity Multiplier at 5.63x) rather than operational efficiency, as asset turnover remains modest at 0.91x despite healthy net margins of 10.9%. Financial integrity appears solid with a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 3.6 suggesting low bankruptcy risk, while the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.50 points to earnings that are likely free from manipulation pressures.
Valuation metrics present a divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at 31.0x forward earnings, the stock commands a premium relative to its sector average of 41.0x is factually incorrect; it trades at a discount to the sector average. However, when discounted cash flow analysis implies a fair value of $266, representing -17.1% downside from current levels, the market appears to be pricing in aggressive long-term free cash flow growth assumptions of 17.4% over the next decade, which may not materialize given recent revenue expansion of only 2.1%.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators suggest potential headwinds for future alpha generation. The stock exhibits a negative Fama-French annualized alpha of -8.85%, indicating underperformance relative to its factor benchmarks, compounded by a value tilt mismatch with the Profitability Factor (RMW) score of 0.777. Furthermore, insider activity over the last ninety days shows net selling totaling $1,985,785, which often signals management caution regarding near-term valuation levels or liquidity needs in this capital-intensive environment.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.7% | 11.7% | 13.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $313 | $235 | $183 |
| 3% | $356 | $259 | $199 |
| 4% | $414 | $290 | $217 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $293.00.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $259 (-22.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 1% above its 5-year average P/E of 32.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedShares of SHW are trading below both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating recent weakness in the stock. The RSI reading at 27.8 suggests that the stock is currently experiencing low momentum and may be considered oversold from a technical perspective.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $0.8000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-02 | $0.8000 | +1.3% |
| 2025-11-14 | $0.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-15 | $0.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-16 | $0.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-03 | $0.7900 | +10.5% |
| 2024-11-15 | $0.7150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-16 | $0.7150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-16 | $0.7150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-23 | $0.7150 | +18.2% |
| 2023-11-16 | $0.6050 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-17 | $0.6050 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VAW or XLB, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SHW shares regardless of The Sherwin-Williams Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $10.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to SHW through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in The Sherwin-Williams Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with SHW. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
SHW Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 SHW shares, reducing daily market volatility.
The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.8% of the VAW (VAW) and 4.4% of the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 35M shares (14.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest SHW Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
SHW Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for The Sherwin-Williams Company over the past year sits near $331.69 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $293.00 sits 11.7% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
SHW Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does The Sherwin-Williams Company convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
The Sherwin-Williams Company converts 59% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 4.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 9,251 | $320.21 | $3.0M |
| 2026-04-28 | 203 | $336.10 | $68,228.3 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $333.60 | $1,000.8 |
| 2026-04-10 | 79 | $335.73 | $26,522.67 |
| 2026-04-06 | 18 | $318.00 | $5,724 |
| 2026-03-26 | 8,492 | $321.95 | $2.7M |
| 2026-03-25 | 23 | $313.70 | $7,215.1 |
| 2026-03-23 | 10,985 | $303.53 | $3.3M |
| 2026-03-13 | 18,225 | $317.70 | $5.8M |
| 2026-02-23 | 164 | $360.63 | $59,143.32 |
| 2026-02-19 | 82,633 | $365.76 | $30.2M |
| 2026-01-21 | 19,614 | $346.96 | $6.8M |
| 2026-01-20 | 400 | $357.83 | $143,132 |
| 2026-01-15 | 4 | $354.35 | $1,417.4 |
| 2026-01-14 | 4,000 | $355.99 | $1.4M |
| 2026-01-07 | 204 | $340.09 | $69,378.36 |
| 2025-12-30 | 70 | $325.23 | $22,766.1 |
| 2025-12-16 | 340 | $328.45 | $111,673 |
| 2025-12-11 | 80 | $326.27 | $26,101.6 |
| 2025-12-09 | 121 | $327.13 | $39,582.73 |
| 2025-11-12 | 191 | $345.08 | $65,910.28 |
| 2025-10-30 | 60 | $345.73 | $20,743.8 |
| 2025-10-29 | 2,396 | $354.45 | $849,262.2 |
| 2025-10-22 | 133 | $338.44 | $45,012.52 |
| 2025-10-15 | 2 | $335.27 | $670.54 |
| 2025-10-14 | 2 | $332.16 | $664.32 |
| 2025-10-10 | 21,875 | $333.22 | $7.3M |
| 2025-10-08 | 6 | $337.00 | $2,022 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| PPG | 0.712 | 0.717 | High co-movement |
| LOW | 0.699 | 0.666 | Moderate |
| HD | 0.699 | 0.673 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.668 | 0.679 | Moderate |
| MTH | 0.634 | 0.633 | Moderate |
| PHM | 0.634 | 0.675 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.621 | 0.582 | Moderate |
| TOL | 0.614 | 0.617 | Moderate |
| LEN | 0.612 | 0.587 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare SHW to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.