Alcon Inc. (ALC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 4/9.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedAlcon Inc. presents a fundamental profile characterized by robust pricing power evident in its 55.2% gross margin, yet this strength is partially offset by operating leverage constraints reflected in a net margin of only 9.4%. The DuPont decomposition suggests the return on equity is driven more by asset efficiency than financial leverage or extreme profitability compression, though the current ROIC of 3.8% indicates capital allocation challenges relative to typical industry standards for high-margin healthcare firms. This structural dynamic is further highlighted by a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, signaling moderate financial health with potential weaknesses in earnings quality or balance sheet stability compared to peers exhibiting stronger scorecards.
Valuation metrics reveal a significant divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models; the stock trades at approximately half its DCF-derived fair value of $114, suggesting the market is discounting future cash flows aggressively despite the company's solid gross margin profile. While revenue growth remains steady at 4.9%, this expansion appears insufficient to justify a premium multiple when contrasted against the sector average P/E of 37.5x. The current valuation implies that investors are pricing in substantial downside risk or expecting stagnation, creating a scenario where the implied growth rate required to reach fair value exceeds historical revenue performance.
The combination of moderate Piotroski metrics and an ROIC below typical cost of capital thresholds introduces notable execution risks that may prevent margin expansion from translating into shareholder returns. Although the wide gap between current prices and DCF estimates offers potential mean reversion opportunities, the underlying fundamentals do not currently support a premium valuation multiple. Investors must weigh whether the 4/9 Piotroski score represents a temporary cyclical dip or a structural limitation on future operational leverage before assuming significant upside from the current discount to fair value.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $139 | $102 | $79 |
| 3% | $163 | $114 | $86 |
| 4% | $199 | $130 | $95 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $114 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VGK or VSGX, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ALC shares regardless of Alcon Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to ALC through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Alcon Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Alcon Inc. (ALC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ASML Holding NV (ASML) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with ALC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 8 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ALC Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest ALC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 8 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ALC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Alcon Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Alcon Inc. converts 60% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 26 | $63.44 | $1,649.44 |
| 2026-05-13 | 43,943 | $63.78 | $2.8M |
| 2026-05-12 | 7,416 | $62.02 | $459,940.32 |
| 2026-05-11 | 18,048 | $62.56 | $1.1M |
| 2026-05-08 | 3,157 | $63.88 | $201,669.16 |
| 2026-05-07 | 99,467 | $65.41 | $6.5M |
| 2026-05-06 | 13,952 | $74.45 | $1.0M |
| 2026-05-05 | 1,145 | $73.48 | $84,134.6 |
| 2026-05-04 | 957 | $74.09 | $70,904.13 |
| 2026-05-01 | 172,560 | $74.87 | $12.9M |
| 2026-04-30 | 97,964 | $72.81 | $7.1M |
| 2026-04-28 | 32,012 | $76.01 | $2.4M |
| 2026-04-27 | 20,838 | $75.80 | $1.6M |
| 2026-04-22 | 83,217 | $77.82 | $6.5M |
| 2026-04-21 | 5,727 | $80.30 | $459,878.1 |
| 2026-04-20 | 1,355 | $81.32 | $110,188.6 |
| 2026-04-17 | 3 | $79.55 | $238.65 |
| 2026-04-16 | 14,307 | $80.73 | $1.2M |
| 2026-04-14 | 101 | $79.74 | $8,053.74 |
| 2026-04-13 | 7,767 | $78.01 | $605,903.67 |
| 2026-04-09 | 63,182 | $77.31 | $4.9M |
| 2026-04-06 | 128 | $74.56 | $9,543.68 |
| 2026-04-01 | 2 | $75.35 | $150.7 |
| 2026-03-30 | 164,727 | $73.34 | $12.1M |
| 2026-03-27 | 85 | $74.47 | $6,329.95 |
| 2026-03-25 | 12,479 | $74.24 | $926,440.96 |
| 2026-03-24 | 7,916 | $74.14 | $586,892.24 |
| 2026-03-20 | 4,475 | $75.01 | $335,669.75 |
| 2026-03-19 | 97,401 | $75.74 | $7.4M |
| 2026-03-18 | 87,077 | $77.78 | $6.8M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare ALC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.