Franklin Resources, Inc. (BEN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicBEN trades at 23.7x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 19.2x. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 1.4. DCF fair value of $4 implies 84% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedFranklin Resources, Inc. presents a fundamental profile characterized by significant capital inefficiency despite robust accounting quality metrics. The core economic challenge is evident in the negative ROIC-WACC spread of -6.6%, indicating that current operations destroy value relative to the cost of capital; this drag stems from low asset turnover (0.27x) limiting returns even as leverage (Equity Multiplier 2.28x) artificially inflates a modestly driven ROE of 3.7%. While internal control mechanisms appear sound, evidenced by a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and an exceptionally low Beneish M-Score of -2.53 suggesting minimal earnings manipulation risk, the Altman Z-Score of 1.4 signals elevated distress probability that warrants scrutiny alongside the sub-8% net margin structure.
Valuation metrics reflect a substantial disconnect between market pricing and intrinsic value models, with the current P/E multiple of 23.1x trading significantly above both historical norms and the sector average of 18.3x. This premium is not supported by discounted cash flow analysis, which assigns a fair value of $5 per share, implying an -80.6% downside to reach model-based equilibrium despite assumptions of 6.6% long-term free cash flow growth. The market appears to be pricing in future operational improvements or asset sales that have yet to materialize within the current financial statements, creating a scenario where high profitability factors (RMW: 0.417) and value characteristics fail to offset the underlying capital allocation inefficiencies.
Risk-reward dynamics are further complicated by divergent factor exposures; while the stock exhibits strong alpha generation relative to Fama-French benchmarks at an annualized 13.62%, driven largely by a pronounced value tilt (HML: 0.206), these momentum signals may be decoupled from fundamental reality given the negative spread environment. With neutral insider flow over the last ninety days, there is no clear internal validation of the company's turnaround potential or strategic pivot to address the capital destruction issues highlighted by the wide gap between revenue growth and return generation.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 3% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7% | 9% | 11% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $9 | $2 | $0 |
| 3% | $14 | $4 | $0 |
| 4% | $23 | $7 | $1 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $31.12.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $4 (-83.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 7% above its 5-year average P/E of 21.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedFranklin Resources, Inc. is currently trading at $31.20 within the financial services sector, presenting a snapshot of its market position relative to key technical metrics. The immediate focus lies in evaluating whether the current price action sustains itself above or falls below established moving averages, which serve as dynamic benchmarks for identifying prevailing trend directions. If the stock maintains levels above these averaged valuations, it typically signals an uptrend where buyers are exerting control; conversely, trading beneath them often indicates a bearish phase dominated by sellers. This positional analysis helps contextualize the asset's trajectory without relying solely on static price points. Short-term momentum is further illuminated by examining the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a tool designed to gauge the speed and change of price movements rather than their absolute magnitude. An RSI reading in overbought territory might suggest that recent gains have been aggressive, potentially setting up for consolidation or a pullback, while values in oversold zones could imply a lack of downward pressure is building strength. However, without specific numerical inputs for the moving averages or the exact RSI value, any definitive conclusion regarding immediate momentum remains speculative based on general technical principles alone. Ultimately, the interplay between price positioning relative to trend lines and the state of short-term oscillators provides a framework for assessing potential future movements. The current setup at $31.20 requires observation of how these indicators evolve over subsequent trading sessions to determine if the underlying momentum is strengthening or weakening.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | $0.3300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-30 | $0.3300 | +3.1% |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.3200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-27 | $0.3200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.3200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-30 | $0.3200 | +3.2% |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.3100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-28 | $0.3100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-27 | $0.3100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-02 | $0.3100 | +3.3% |
| 2023-09-28 | $0.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-29 | $0.3000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SPHD or NOBL, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell BEN shares regardless of Franklin Resources, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to BEN through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Franklin Resources, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Franklin Resources, Inc. (BEN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Altria Group Inc (MO) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with BEN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
BEN Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 BEN shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Franklin Resources, Inc. (BEN) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.6% of the SPHD (SPHD) and 1.4% of the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL). Across 28 tracked ETFs, approximately 61M shares (11.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest BEN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 28 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
BEN Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Franklin Resources, Inc. over the past year sits near $23.57 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $31.12 trades 32.0% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
BEN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Franklin Resources, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Franklin Resources, Inc. converts 64% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-6.7%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 805 | $32.04 | $25,792.2 |
| 2026-05-06 | 2,494 | $30.46 | $75,967.24 |
| 2026-04-28 | 30 | $27.57 | $827.1 |
| 2026-04-22 | 21 | $27.24 | $572.04 |
| 2026-04-20 | 8,999 | $27.27 | $245,402.73 |
| 2026-04-15 | 28,783 | $26.43 | $760,734.69 |
| 2026-04-10 | 5,061 | $25.04 | $126,727.44 |
| 2026-04-07 | 9,179 | $23.40 | $214,788.6 |
| 2026-04-02 | 22,280 | $23.59 | $525,585.2 |
| 2026-03-25 | 31 | $23.67 | $733.77 |
| 2026-03-24 | 18 | $23.90 | $430.2 |
| 2026-03-23 | 5,214 | $23.46 | $122,320.44 |
| 2026-03-19 | 15,958 | $23.67 | $377,725.86 |
| 2026-03-13 | 80 | $23.77 | $1,901.6 |
| 2026-03-12 | 37,099 | $24.97 | $926,362.03 |
| 2026-03-05 | 537 | $26.58 | $14,273.46 |
| 2026-02-18 | 45 | $27.49 | $1,237.05 |
| 2026-02-17 | 55 | $27.03 | $1,486.65 |
| 2026-02-02 | 137,474 | $26.62 | $3.7M |
| 2026-01-27 | 84,278 | $25.55 | $2.2M |
| 2026-01-13 | 19,440 | $25.64 | $498,441.6 |
| 2026-01-12 | 53,139 | $25.66 | $1.4M |
| 2026-01-08 | 1,542 | $25.15 | $38,781.3 |
| 2026-01-06 | 157 | $24.49 | $3,844.93 |
| 2025-12-31 | 137 | $23.86 | $3,268.82 |
| 2025-12-30 | 3,132 | $24.38 | $76,358.16 |
| 2025-12-23 | 21 | $24.59 | $516.39 |
| 2025-12-22 | 99 | $24.00 | $2,376 |
| 2025-12-16 | 504 | $23.62 | $11,904.48 |
| 2025-12-08 | 2,146 | $23.40 | $50,216.4 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| TROW | 0.669 | 0.621 | Moderate |
| MC | 0.648 | 0.641 | Moderate |
| BLK | 0.631 | 0.614 | Moderate |
| IVZ | 0.631 | 0.668 | Moderate |
| AMP | 0.630 | 0.610 | Moderate |
| TRMB | 0.620 | 0.584 | Moderate |
| PNC | 0.612 | 0.559 | Moderate |
| CFG | 0.612 | 0.575 | Moderate |
| MS | 0.611 | 0.579 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare BEN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.