Financial Services

Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH)

$3.3B
Market Cap
6.6
P/E Ratio
1.20
Beta
1.28%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 7/9Altman Z 0.4 Distress

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

At 6.6x earnings — a 66% discount to the sector average of 19.2x — BFH is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 0.4.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Valuation Context

6.6x
BFH P/E
19.2x
Sector Avg
-66%
vs Sector

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

7/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
0.4
Altman Z-Score
Distress Zone — below 1.8 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.

Profitability & Value Creation

13.5%
Net Margin
7.5%
WACC
+0.2%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+87.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

13.5%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.17x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
6.81x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
15.6%
Return on Equity
⚠️ High equity multiplier — ROE is being amplified by leverage, not operational excellence.

Balance Sheet Health

5.81x
Debt / Equity

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $2.23
Act: $2.90
+30.1%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $1.94
Act: $3.14
+61.7%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $2.11
Act: $4.02
+90.3%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $0.48
Act: $2.07
+334.3%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

6.2
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
0.96
Price/Book
838269
Avg Volume
$82.03
52W High
$38.21
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$145M
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding BFH
0.07%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$211B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like SLYV or VFVA, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell BFH shares regardless of Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $145M of passive capital is structurally linked to BFH through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on BFH's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

BFH Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
BFHEpicenterVYMETFVBRETFVTWOETFADBELow RiskQCOMLow RiskPEPLow RiskBELow RiskFTNTLow Risk
BFH Price Drop (%)0

If Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Adobe Inc. (ADBE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with BFH. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 9 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

BFH Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
BFH

Float lock-up computed from 9 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-04-2490,518$92.12$8.3M
2026-04-2118$91.75$1,651.5
2026-03-1615,226$71.53$1.1M
2026-03-1229,679$74.09$2.2M
2026-03-03153$71.99$11,014.47
2026-02-20950$75.01$71,259.5
2026-02-1958$74.43$4,316.94
2026-02-111,169$77.11$90,141.59
2026-02-0583$76.50$6,349.5
2026-02-0211,908$72.54$863,806.32
2026-01-3056$73.03$4,089.68
2026-01-293,997$68.20$272,595.4
2026-01-214,677$69.94$327,109.38
2026-01-08596$79.98$47,668.08
2025-12-22200$78.00$15,600
2025-12-196,297$77.64$488,899.08
2025-12-1635$74.35$2,602.25
2025-12-0923,300$72.42$1.7M
2025-12-082$72.21$144.42
2025-12-052$72.00$144
2025-12-038$69.38$555.04
2025-11-051,810$62.58$113,269.8
2025-10-141,272$56.42$71,766.24

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare BFH to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.