Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 12.8x earnings — a 33% discount to the sector average of 19.2x — CBSH is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 0.2. DCF fair value of $125 implies 146% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 6% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $152 | $113 | $92 |
| 3% | $183 | $125 | $98 |
| 4% | $237 | $144 | $107 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $52.02.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $125 (+146.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 0% below its 5-year average P/E of 12.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCommerce Bancshares, Inc. is currently trading at $50.95 within the financial services sector, presenting a snapshot where institutional positioning can be inferred through specific technical behaviors rather than explicit directives. The presence of Simple Moving Average crossovers often serves as a focal point for larger market participants who utilize these metrics to time entries or exits based on trend alignment shifts. When price action interacts closely with these dynamic averages, it may suggest that significant capital is rotating into positions anticipating continued momentum, particularly if the asset sustains levels above key thresholds. Conversely, any rejection from these moving average lines could indicate a reevaluation of bullish sentiment by sophisticated traders who prioritize mean reversion strategies over trend-following approaches in volatile markets. Volume trends provide further context to this narrative; sustained increases in trading volume alongside price appreciation typically signal that institutional players are accumulating shares with conviction, validating the strength behind any upward movement. However, if volume diminishes while prices rise or fall sharply, it might imply a lack of broad-based support from major holders, potentially leading to slower accumulation phases or distribution by entities seeking liquidity at current valuations. The interplay between price action and these volume metrics offers a window into whether the broader market consensus is driven by genuine fundamental interest or speculative activity that could reverse quickly if macroeconomic conditions shift unfavorably for regional banks.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | $0.2750 | +5.0% |
| 2025-12-02 | $0.2620 | +0.0% |
| 2025-09-05 | $0.2619 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-06 | $0.2619 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-07 | $0.2619 | +7.0% |
| 2024-12-03 | $0.2448 | -0.1% |
| 2024-09-05 | $0.2449 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-05 | $0.2449 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-06 | $0.2449 | +5.1% |
| 2023-12-01 | $0.2331 | -0.1% |
| 2023-09-05 | $0.2332 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-02 | $0.2332 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like KRE or KBE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CBSH shares regardless of Commerce Bancshares, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $636M of passive capital is structurally linked to CBSH through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on CBSH's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Commerce Bancshares, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies UMB FINANCIAL CORP (UMBF) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 5 ETFs with CBSH. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 16 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CBSH Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 11 CBSH shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.5% of the KRE (KRE) and 1.0% of the KBE (KBE). Across 17 tracked ETFs, approximately 13M shares (9.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest CBSH Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 17 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CBSH Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Commerce Bancshares, Inc. over the past year sits near $51.19 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $52.02 trades 1.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 36 | $52.03 | $1,873.08 |
| 2026-04-27 | 26 | $50.56 | $1,314.56 |
| 2026-04-24 | 38 | $51.57 | $1,959.66 |
| 2026-04-14 | 384 | $50.91 | $19,549.44 |
| 2026-03-27 | 424 | $48.99 | $20,771.76 |
| 2026-03-25 | 109 | $48.44 | $5,279.96 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6 | $47.68 | $286.08 |
| 2026-03-19 | 18,336 | $47.50 | $870,960 |
| 2026-03-05 | 6,010 | $52.25 | $314,022.5 |
| 2026-03-02 | 1,243 | $50.99 | $63,380.57 |
| 2026-02-24 | 10 | $52.24 | $522.4 |
| 2026-02-20 | 29,483 | $53.68 | $1.6M |
| 2026-02-17 | 577 | $53.60 | $30,927.2 |
| 2026-02-11 | 63 | $54.91 | $3,459.33 |
| 2026-01-29 | 3 | $52.66 | $157.98 |
| 2026-01-21 | 51 | $53.48 | $2,727.48 |
| 2026-01-20 | 900 | $54.29 | $48,861 |
| 2026-01-14 | 27 | $53.35 | $1,440.45 |
| 2026-01-08 | 37 | $53.72 | $1,987.64 |
| 2026-01-06 | 83 | $53.26 | $4,420.58 |
| 2026-01-02 | 17,967 | $52.34 | $940,392.78 |
| 2025-12-29 | 50 | $52.96 | $2,648 |
| 2025-12-23 | 309 | $53.02 | $16,383.18 |
| 2025-12-22 | 365 | $52.81 | $19,275.65 |
| 2025-12-19 | 2,322 | $53.02 | $123,112.44 |
| 2025-12-18 | 890 | $53.17 | $47,321.3 |
| 2025-12-17 | 59,965 | $52.89 | $3.2M |
| 2025-12-15 | 1,161 | $53.74 | $62,392.14 |
| 2025-12-12 | 1,387 | $53.47 | $74,162.89 |
| 2025-12-11 | 24,375 | $53.32 | $1.3M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| HWC | 0.830 | 0.844 | High co-movement |
| SSB | 0.825 | 0.815 | High co-movement |
| CFR | 0.823 | 0.844 | High co-movement |
| ZION | 0.816 | 0.828 | High co-movement |
| UMBF | 0.815 | 0.825 | High co-movement |
| ONB | 0.813 | 0.816 | High co-movement |
| FNB | 0.807 | 0.788 | High co-movement |
| ASB | 0.803 | 0.815 | High co-movement |
| FULT | 0.801 | 0.795 | High co-movement |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CBSH to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.