Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 13.2x earnings — a 31% discount to the sector average of 19.2x — CFR is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 0.3. DCF fair value of $188 implies 31% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $203 | $181 | $170 |
| 3% | $219 | $188 | $173 |
| 4% | $250 | $198 | $178 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $135.54.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $188 (+31.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 26% above its 5-year average P/E of 11.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current technical configuration for Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. presents a neutral-to-bullish structure that may reflect cautious positioning by institutional participants. With the stock trading at $134.70 within the Financial Services sector, the alignment of moving averages suggests that larger market players might be holding steady or gradually accumulating shares rather than aggressively rotating out. The absence of sharp downward pressure in price action often indicates that institutions are not actively distributing their holdings at these levels, potentially viewing the current valuation as stable relative to historical trends. Volume patterns typically serve as a critical filter for validating such movements; if trading activity has been moderate alongside this price stability, it could imply that major holders are waiting for clearer directional signals before committing significant capital. Conversely, any subtle uptick in volume without corresponding price spikes might suggest early accumulation phases where smart money is quietly building positions ahead of potential catalysts specific to the banking sector. The interplay between these technical elements paints a picture of consolidation rather than panic or euphoria, allowing institutional behavior to remain measured and strategic as they assess broader economic indicators affecting regional banks. Ultimately, this setup does not mandate immediate action but highlights an environment where larger entities appear comfortable maintaining their current exposure while monitoring market dynamics. The convergence of price stability with supportive moving average relationships creates a scenario often associated with accumulation or holding strategies by sophisticated investors who prioritize risk management over rapid speculation in the financial services space.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $1.0300 | +3.0% |
| 2026-02-27 | $1.0000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-28 | $1.0000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-29 | $1.0000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-30 | $1.0000 | +5.3% |
| 2025-02-28 | $0.9500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-29 | $0.9500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-30 | $0.9500 | +3.3% |
| 2024-05-31 | $0.9200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-28 | $0.9200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-29 | $0.9200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-30 | $0.9200 | +5.7% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like KRE or KBE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CFR shares regardless of Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $3.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to CFR through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ASML Holding NV (ASML) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CFR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 23 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CFR Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 3 CFR shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) exerts significant gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.4% of the KRE (KRE) and 1.0% of the KBE (KBE). Across 23 tracked ETFs, approximately 22M shares (35.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.
ETFs with Highest CFR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 23 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CFR Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. over the past year sits near $122.60 (9% of 252-day volume). The current price of $135.54 trades 10.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 1 | $138.85 | $138.85 |
| 2026-05-01 | 526 | $144.93 | $76,233.18 |
| 2026-04-30 | 7 | $142.80 | $999.6 |
| 2026-04-20 | 23 | $143.33 | $3,296.59 |
| 2026-04-17 | 42 | $141.53 | $5,944.26 |
| 2026-04-09 | 1,515 | $143.02 | $216,675.3 |
| 2026-03-31 | 100 | $135.32 | $13,532 |
| 2026-03-27 | 89 | $136.38 | $12,137.82 |
| 2026-03-26 | 25,600 | $135.33 | $3.5M |
| 2026-03-23 | 86 | $132.25 | $11,373.5 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2,546 | $129.45 | $329,579.7 |
| 2026-03-16 | 3,827 | $132.13 | $505,661.51 |
| 2026-03-03 | 831 | $140.21 | $116,514.51 |
| 2026-03-02 | 931 | $138.22 | $128,682.82 |
| 2026-02-26 | 14 | $142.81 | $1,999.34 |
| 2026-02-25 | 6,253 | $141.94 | $887,550.82 |
| 2026-02-23 | 248 | $145.44 | $36,069.12 |
| 2026-02-13 | 14,021 | $144.11 | $2.0M |
| 2026-01-27 | 800 | $136.33 | $109,064 |
| 2026-01-23 | 5,867 | $142.09 | $833,642.03 |
| 2026-01-22 | 12,052 | $143.33 | $1.7M |
| 2026-01-16 | 11,755 | $139.13 | $1.6M |
| 2026-01-15 | 24,289 | $137.11 | $3.3M |
| 2026-01-06 | 199 | $133.69 | $26,604.31 |
| 2026-01-02 | 590 | $126.63 | $74,711.7 |
| 2025-12-26 | 3 | $128.99 | $386.97 |
| 2025-12-24 | 286 | $129.31 | $36,982.66 |
| 2025-12-15 | 444 | $129.21 | $57,369.24 |
| 2025-12-02 | 186 | $124.68 | $23,190.48 |
| 2025-12-01 | 186 | $123.72 | $23,011.92 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ASB | 0.851 | 0.853 | High co-movement |
| WTFC | 0.839 | 0.823 | High co-movement |
| FNB | 0.836 | 0.826 | High co-movement |
| HWC | 0.832 | 0.821 | High co-movement |
| UMBF | 0.832 | 0.843 | High co-movement |
| FULT | 0.829 | 0.832 | High co-movement |
| ONB | 0.823 | 0.848 | High co-movement |
| CBSH | 0.823 | 0.844 | High co-movement |
| BOKF | 0.821 | 0.836 | High co-movement |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CFR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.