Brinker International, Inc. (EAT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 13.7x earnings — a 61% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — EAT is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 4.1 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedBrinker International demonstrates robust fundamental economics characterized by a significant ROIC-WACC spread of 7.6%, indicating that the company generates returns well above its cost of capital, with DuPont decomposition suggesting strong operational efficiency given the high revenue growth and healthy net margins. This financial resilience is further corroborated by a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, signaling robust balance sheet strength and earnings quality, while an Altman Z-Score of 4.1 places the firm in a safe zone regarding bankruptcy risk. Conversely, the Beneish M-Score of -2.92 suggests management earnings are unlikely to be manipulated, reinforcing confidence in the reported financial trajectory driven by substantial gross margin expansion alongside accelerating top-line growth.
Valuation metrics present a notable divergence between historical performance and current market pricing relative to sector peers. The stock trades at 13.7x forward earnings, which is materially discounted compared to the consumer cyclical sector average of 36.4x, implying the market may be applying a higher risk premium or anticipating slower future growth than currently realized. However, this discount contrasts with a DCF-derived fair value of $165, suggesting that under current assumptions about cash flow generation and terminal growth rates, the intrinsic valuation exceeds prevailing market prices. This discrepancy indicates the market is not fully pricing in the company's ability to sustain its high ROIC and rapid revenue expansion at these multiples.
While no specific risk factor deltas or insider activity data were provided for this analysis, the combination of a low P/E relative to sector norms against a potentially elevated DCF fair value creates a scenario where downside protection appears structurally supported by strong fundamentals, yet upside potential relies on multiple re-rating toward peer averages. The substantial gap between current pricing and implied intrinsic value leaves open the possibility that market sentiment remains cautious despite the company's superior capital allocation efficiency and low manipulation risk indicators.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10.7% | 12.7% | 14.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $194 | $152 | $125 |
| 3% | $215 | $165 | $133 |
| 4% | $242 | $181 | $143 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $165 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SLYG or SPSM, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell EAT shares regardless of Brinker International, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $400M of passive capital is structurally linked to EAT through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on EAT's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Brinker International, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with EAT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 8 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
EAT Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest EAT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 8 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
EAT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Brinker International, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Brinker International, Inc. converts 57% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 7.6% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 5 | $126.36 | $631.8 |
| 2026-05-04 | 5,900 | $148.14 | $874,026 |
| 2026-04-29 | 23,517 | $129.14 | $3.0M |
| 2026-04-20 | 960 | $158.14 | $151,814.4 |
| 2026-04-06 | 7,299 | $144.69 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-23 | 400 | $143.40 | $57,360 |
| 2026-03-17 | 1,461 | $144.08 | $210,500.88 |
| 2026-03-11 | 267 | $139.82 | $37,331.94 |
| 2026-02-27 | 16,309 | $151.63 | $2.5M |
| 2026-02-17 | 7 | $161.07 | $1,127.49 |
| 2026-02-13 | 7 | $162.54 | $1,137.78 |
| 2026-02-11 | 4,899 | $163.17 | $799,369.83 |
| 2026-02-09 | 203 | $168.93 | $34,292.79 |
| 2026-02-04 | 120 | $163.45 | $19,614 |
| 2025-12-29 | 153 | $149.61 | $22,890.33 |
| 2025-12-22 | 1,190 | $149.44 | $177,833.6 |
| 2025-12-15 | 11 | $144.45 | $1,588.95 |
| 2025-12-11 | 38 | $136.35 | $5,181.3 |
| 2025-12-01 | 146 | $153.79 | $22,453.34 |
| 2025-11-26 | 24 | $149.71 | $3,593.04 |
| 2025-11-24 | 963 | $134.96 | $129,966.48 |
| 2025-11-20 | 213 | $127.94 | $27,251.22 |
| 2025-11-12 | 889 | $105.81 | $94,065.09 |
| 2025-11-03 | 8 | $108.66 | $869.28 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare EAT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.