INGR (INGR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 3.9 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company exhibits robust capital efficiency and earnings quality, characterized by an ROIC of 12.1% that suggests strong value creation relative to the cost of equity. The DuPont decomposition reveals a growth engine driven primarily by operational leverage rather than financial engineering; specifically, healthy net margins of 10.1% combined with solid asset turnover of 0.91x generate an ROE of 16.7%, amplified moderately by an equity multiplier of 1.81x. This fundamental stability is corroborated by a high Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a low Beneish M-Score of -2.54, indicating minimal earnings manipulation risk despite recent revenue contraction of 2.8% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics present a divergence between historical multiples and intrinsic value models. The current P/E ratio of 10.1x appears compressed relative to the firm's profitability profile, yet this discount may reflect market skepticism regarding the negative revenue trend. A DCF analysis anchors fair value at $102 per share, implying that if growth assumptions align with long-term potential, the stock could trade significantly higher than current levels; however, the model assumes specific implied growth rates not explicitly detailed in the input data. The market price thus hinges on whether investors believe the temporary revenue headwinds will reverse before earnings power can fully re-rate.
Risk assessment highlights a notable disconnect between institutional confidence and insider positioning over the last 90 days, marked by $5.78 million of net selling. While the Fama-French alpha is not provided to quantify risk-adjusted returns relative to size or value factors, the significant insider outflow warrants scrutiny as it may signal management's view on near-term liquidity constraints or capital allocation priorities that differ from current market pricing.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.1% | 8.1% | 10.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $134 | $87 | $64 |
| 3% | $172 | $102 | $71 |
| 4% | $247 | $124 | $81 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $102 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VFMV or MDYV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell INGR shares regardless of INGR's individual fundamentals. We estimate $535M of passive capital is structurally linked to INGR through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on INGR's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in INGR to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If INGR (INGR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with INGR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 17 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
INGR Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest INGR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 17 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
INGR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does INGR convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
INGR converts 41% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 59% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 4.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 157 | $106.20 | $16,673.4 |
| 2026-05-11 | 757 | $107.39 | $81,294.23 |
| 2026-05-08 | 26 | $107.36 | $2,791.36 |
| 2026-05-06 | 10 | $107.13 | $1,071.3 |
| 2026-05-05 | 7 | $106.88 | $748.16 |
| 2026-05-04 | 14,748 | $110.43 | $1.6M |
| 2026-04-30 | 2,481 | $111.71 | $277,152.51 |
| 2026-04-13 | 25 | $114.66 | $2,866.5 |
| 2026-04-07 | 69 | $114.26 | $7,883.94 |
| 2026-04-06 | 69 | $112.76 | $7,780.44 |
| 2026-04-02 | 69 | $111.26 | $7,676.94 |
| 2026-04-01 | 336 | $112.66 | $37,853.76 |
| 2026-03-30 | 293 | $112.11 | $32,848.23 |
| 2026-03-23 | 57 | $109.16 | $6,222.12 |
| 2026-03-17 | 973 | $112.02 | $108,995.46 |
| 2026-03-09 | 9,200 | $114.83 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-03 | 141 | $116.97 | $16,492.77 |
| 2026-02-25 | 113 | $117.92 | $13,324.96 |
| 2026-01-30 | 10,670 | $117.20 | $1.3M |
| 2026-01-26 | 390 | $116.82 | $45,559.8 |
| 2026-01-20 | 58 | $114.90 | $6,664.2 |
| 2026-01-07 | 28 | $111.34 | $3,117.52 |
| 2026-01-02 | 882 | $110.26 | $97,249.32 |
| 2025-12-29 | 29 | $111.40 | $3,230.6 |
| 2025-11-12 | 86 | $109.31 | $9,400.66 |
| 2025-11-04 | 187 | $114.13 | $21,342.31 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare INGR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.