Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicMRVL trades at 70.4x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 65.0x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 9.6 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $16 implies 87% downside based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -1.58 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of MRVL present a dichotomy between exceptional operational momentum and deteriorating valuation metrics. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the 18.7% ROE is driven primarily by an expansive net margin of 32.6%, rather than asset efficiency or leverage, suggesting high pricing power but potentially fragile scalability given the modest 0.37x asset turnover. This operational strength is reinforced by a robust Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a Beneish M-Score of -1.58, indicating strong financial health with low earnings manipulation risk. However, these quality attributes are overshadowed by a severe disconnect in the DCF model, which implies a fair value significantly lower than current market prices, reflecting an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 35.6% that may be overly optimistic relative to historical norms.
Valuation analysis highlights a substantial premium priced into the stock, with a P/E ratio of 34.9x standing in stark contrast to the DCF-derived fair value implication of -84.5% downside. This suggests the market is aggressively pricing in hyper-growth expectations that current fundamentals may not sustain long-term. The discrepancy between the high revenue growth of 42.1% and the implied valuation multiple indicates investors are betting on future expansion rather than current earnings power, creating a scenario where any deceleration in top-line performance could trigger a sharp re-rating.
Risk factors further complicate the investment thesis, as Fama-French factor exposures reveal significant deviations from traditional value profiles. The stock exhibits a pronounced growth tilt with an HML score of -0.667 and weak profitability characteristics relative to its sector peers (RMW: -0.503), exposing it to downside risks if market sentiment shifts toward value or if margins compress. Additionally, insider activity over the last 90 days shows net selling totaling $7,850,479, a signal that management may perceive valuation levels as elevated despite the company's impressive revenue trajectory and low manipulation risk scores.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 42% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 13.5% | 15.5% | 17.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $19 | $16 | $13 |
| 3% | $20 | $16 | $14 |
| 4% | $22 | $18 | $15 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $290.79.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=15.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $16 (-87.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 76% above its 5-year average P/E of 23.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-09 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-10 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-11 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-11 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-10 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-11 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-12 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-11 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-04 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-05 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-06 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XNTK or XSD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MRVL shares regardless of Marvell Technology, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $10.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to MRVL through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Marvell Technology, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies INTEL CORP (INTC) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with MRVL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 16 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MRVL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 12 MRVL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 5.2% of the XNTK (XNTK) and 3.3% of the XSD (XSD). Across 16 tracked ETFs, approximately 70M shares (8.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest MRVL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 16 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MRVL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Marvell Technology, Inc. over the past year sits near $76.79 (32% of 252-day volume). The current price of $290.79 trades 278.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (32% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
MRVL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Marvell Technology, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Marvell Technology, Inc. converts 31% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 69% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.1%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 37 | $170.84 | $6,321.08 |
| 2026-05-08 | 1 | $160.01 | $160.01 |
| 2026-05-07 | 79,233 | $172.15 | $13.6M |
| 2026-05-04 | 1,700 | $164.95 | $280,415 |
| 2026-04-29 | 8,240 | $153.23 | $1.3M |
| 2026-04-28 | 11,195 | $158.21 | $1.8M |
| 2026-04-27 | 4,892 | $164.31 | $803,804.52 |
| 2026-04-24 | 24 | $165.56 | $3,973.44 |
| 2026-04-23 | 7,023 | $157.32 | $1.1M |
| 2026-04-22 | 6,950 | $151.31 | $1.1M |
| 2026-04-21 | 1,950 | $147.84 | $288,288 |
| 2026-04-20 | 5,600 | $139.69 | $782,264 |
| 2026-04-17 | 2 | $133.37 | $266.74 |
| 2026-04-14 | 1 | $131.30 | $131.3 |
| 2026-04-13 | 1,000 | $128.49 | $128,490 |
| 2026-04-10 | 1,032 | $119.93 | $123,767.76 |
| 2026-04-09 | 132,359 | $114.45 | $15.1M |
| 2026-04-08 | 70 | $109.38 | $7,656.6 |
| 2026-04-06 | 45,335 | $107.11 | $4.9M |
| 2026-04-01 | 1,009 | $99.05 | $99,941.45 |
| 2026-03-30 | 2,000 | $94.88 | $189,760 |
| 2026-03-26 | 44,570 | $98.45 | $4.4M |
| 2026-03-24 | 9,702 | $90.16 | $874,732.32 |
| 2026-03-23 | 153,338 | $87.91 | $13.5M |
| 2026-03-20 | 4,119 | $89.53 | $368,774.07 |
| 2026-03-19 | 1 | $87.62 | $87.62 |
| 2026-03-18 | 11,514 | $90.79 | $1.0M |
| 2026-03-17 | 112,449 | $91.58 | $10.3M |
| 2026-03-16 | 17,163 | $87.86 | $1.5M |
| 2026-03-11 | 12,510 | $93.30 | $1.2M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| TSM | 0.464 | 0.415 | Moderate |
| AVGO | 0.461 | 0.496 | Moderate |
| VRT | 0.461 | 0.439 | Moderate |
| KYG254571055 | 0.459 | 0.405 | Moderate |
| CRDO | 0.459 | 0.405 | Moderate |
| ETN | 0.450 | 0.426 | Moderate |
| NVDA | 0.449 | 0.393 | Moderate |
| CAT | 0.443 | 0.401 | Moderate |
| MPWR | 0.440 | 0.412 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare MRVL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.