OR (OR)

$6.7B
Market Cap
32.5
P/E Ratio
1.27
Beta
0.62%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 7/9Altman Z 30.4 SafeBeneish M -2.26 Clean

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 30.4 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The fundamental economics present a compelling tension between exceptional profitability metrics and aggressive growth execution. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the 14.4% ROE is driven almost entirely by superior pricing power, evidenced by an extraordinary net margin of 74.3%, rather than operational leverage or asset efficiency; this high-margin profile supports a robust Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a low Beneish M-Score of -2.24, suggesting strong financial health with minimal earnings manipulation risk despite the rapid revenue expansion. However, the equity multiplier of just 1.09x indicates the company is operating without significant debt leverage to amplify returns on its capital base, relying instead on organic margin expansion and asset turnover dynamics that currently sit at a modest 0.18x.

Valuation metrics suggest the market has priced in substantial future growth expectations that may not be fully realized given current fundamentals. The current P/E of 32.5x sits significantly above historical norms for firms with similar leverage profiles, implying investors are anticipating sustained acceleration beyond the reported 45.1% revenue growth rate. A DCF analysis calculates a fair value of $29, which serves as a critical benchmark against the prevailing market price; if current trading levels exceed this implied valuation, the stock may be trading on optimistic assumptions regarding long-term margin durability and capital allocation efficiency rather than near-term earnings power alone.

Insider activity introduces a notable divergence from the bullish sentiment embedded in the multiple expansion over the last 90 days, with net selling totaling $11.26 million. While the high Piotroski score and low manipulation risk typically signal stability, this significant insider outflow warrants scrutiny regarding potential liquidity needs or differing views on near-term valuation ceilings compared to external analysts. The convergence of extreme margins, rapid growth, elevated multiples, and active insider distribution creates a complex risk-reward landscape where future performance must validate the premium currently demanded by the market.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →8%10%12%
2%$49$36$28
3%$57$40$31
4%$70$46$34

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $40 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

7/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
30.4
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-2.26
Beneish M-Score
Below threshold — no statistical earnings quality concern per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

83.8%
Gross Margin
74.3%
Net Margin
12.7%
ROIC
+45.1%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+1166.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
208.7M
Free Cash Flow
17%
FCF Payout Ratio

✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

74.3%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.18x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
1.09x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
14.4%
Return on Equity
✅ ROE driven primarily by strong profit margins — a sign of pricing power.

Balance Sheet Health

0.09x
Debt / Equity
4.53x
Current Ratio
54.9x
Interest Coverage
3.18%
FCF Yield
282.9M
EBITDA

Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)

Net Insider Flow
-$11M
Net Selling
7
Buy Transactions
25
Sale Transactions
2026-03-02Spencer (Michael David Saynor)Sold 1/4 qtrsOther$1M
2026-03-02Taylor (Heather)Sold 1/4 qtrsOther$203,303
2026-03-02Desharnais (Guy)Sold 2/4 qtrsOther$259,021
2026-03-02Farmer (Iain Wesley CFA)Sold 1/4 qtrsOther$306,704
2026-03-02Le Bel (Andre)Sold 1/4 qtrsOther$847,997

Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $0.15
Act: $0.16
+5.1%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $0.17
Act: $0.18
+8.3%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $0.22
Act: $0.22
+2.1%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $0.30
Act: $0.32
+5.9%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

21.0
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
4.64
Price/Book
1M
Avg Volume
$48.06
52W High
$18.98
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$926M
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding OR
0.08%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$1.2T
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like CWI or VGK, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell OR shares regardless of OR's individual fundamentals. We estimate $926M of passive capital is structurally linked to OR through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on OR's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in OR to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

OR Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
OREpicenterVXUSETFVEAETFVEUETFASMLLow Risk2330UnknownTSMLow Risk005930UnknownAZNLow Risk
OR Price Drop (%)0

If OR (OR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ASML Holding NV (ASML) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with OR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 9 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

OR Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
OR

Float lock-up computed from 9 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

OR Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does OR convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$209M
EBITDA
$283M
FCF Conversion
74%
Reinvestment Rate
26%
74% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)

OR converts 74% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-12400$39.80$15,920
2026-05-0515,825$36.09$571,124.25
2026-05-04197$36.72$7,233.84
2026-04-2453$40.04$2,122.12
2026-04-2214$39.54$553.56
2026-04-203,400$42.62$144,908
2026-03-2344$32.87$1,446.28
2026-03-2015,207$34.60$526,162.2
2026-03-1715,336$40.26$617,427.36
2026-03-166,069$40.33$244,762.77
2026-03-139,585$42.05$403,049.25
2026-03-1210,620$42.98$456,447.6
2026-03-101,248$43.42$54,188.16
2026-03-055,424$44.02$238,764.48
2026-03-03823$47.73$39,281.79
2026-02-261,741$45.82$79,772.62
2026-02-252,093$45.43$95,084.99
2026-02-20800$41.93$33,544
2026-02-1921$43.53$914.13
2026-02-185,442$42.31$230,251.02
2026-02-171,216$42.69$51,911.04
2026-02-1248,371$43.86$2.1M
2026-02-1165,198$42.94$2.8M
2026-02-092,666$40.03$106,719.98
2026-02-0626,375$38.67$1.0M
2026-02-059,500$41.07$390,165
2026-01-30426$45.71$19,472.46
2026-01-272,540$45.55$115,697
2026-01-164,457$40.84$182,023.88
2026-01-1425,547$40.94$1.0M

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare OR to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.