OR (OR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 30.4 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics present a compelling tension between exceptional profitability metrics and aggressive growth execution. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the 14.4% ROE is driven almost entirely by superior pricing power, evidenced by an extraordinary net margin of 74.3%, rather than operational leverage or asset efficiency; this high-margin profile supports a robust Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a low Beneish M-Score of -2.24, suggesting strong financial health with minimal earnings manipulation risk despite the rapid revenue expansion. However, the equity multiplier of just 1.09x indicates the company is operating without significant debt leverage to amplify returns on its capital base, relying instead on organic margin expansion and asset turnover dynamics that currently sit at a modest 0.18x.
Valuation metrics suggest the market has priced in substantial future growth expectations that may not be fully realized given current fundamentals. The current P/E of 32.5x sits significantly above historical norms for firms with similar leverage profiles, implying investors are anticipating sustained acceleration beyond the reported 45.1% revenue growth rate. A DCF analysis calculates a fair value of $29, which serves as a critical benchmark against the prevailing market price; if current trading levels exceed this implied valuation, the stock may be trading on optimistic assumptions regarding long-term margin durability and capital allocation efficiency rather than near-term earnings power alone.
Insider activity introduces a notable divergence from the bullish sentiment embedded in the multiple expansion over the last 90 days, with net selling totaling $11.26 million. While the high Piotroski score and low manipulation risk typically signal stability, this significant insider outflow warrants scrutiny regarding potential liquidity needs or differing views on near-term valuation ceilings compared to external analysts. The convergence of extreme margins, rapid growth, elevated multiples, and active insider distribution creates a complex risk-reward landscape where future performance must validate the premium currently demanded by the market.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $49 | $36 | $28 |
| 3% | $57 | $40 | $31 |
| 4% | $70 | $46 | $34 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $40 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like CWI or VGK, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell OR shares regardless of OR's individual fundamentals. We estimate $926M of passive capital is structurally linked to OR through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on OR's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in OR to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If OR (OR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ASML Holding NV (ASML) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with OR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 9 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
OR Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest OR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 9 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
OR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does OR convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
OR converts 74% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 400 | $39.80 | $15,920 |
| 2026-05-05 | 15,825 | $36.09 | $571,124.25 |
| 2026-05-04 | 197 | $36.72 | $7,233.84 |
| 2026-04-24 | 53 | $40.04 | $2,122.12 |
| 2026-04-22 | 14 | $39.54 | $553.56 |
| 2026-04-20 | 3,400 | $42.62 | $144,908 |
| 2026-03-23 | 44 | $32.87 | $1,446.28 |
| 2026-03-20 | 15,207 | $34.60 | $526,162.2 |
| 2026-03-17 | 15,336 | $40.26 | $617,427.36 |
| 2026-03-16 | 6,069 | $40.33 | $244,762.77 |
| 2026-03-13 | 9,585 | $42.05 | $403,049.25 |
| 2026-03-12 | 10,620 | $42.98 | $456,447.6 |
| 2026-03-10 | 1,248 | $43.42 | $54,188.16 |
| 2026-03-05 | 5,424 | $44.02 | $238,764.48 |
| 2026-03-03 | 823 | $47.73 | $39,281.79 |
| 2026-02-26 | 1,741 | $45.82 | $79,772.62 |
| 2026-02-25 | 2,093 | $45.43 | $95,084.99 |
| 2026-02-20 | 800 | $41.93 | $33,544 |
| 2026-02-19 | 21 | $43.53 | $914.13 |
| 2026-02-18 | 5,442 | $42.31 | $230,251.02 |
| 2026-02-17 | 1,216 | $42.69 | $51,911.04 |
| 2026-02-12 | 48,371 | $43.86 | $2.1M |
| 2026-02-11 | 65,198 | $42.94 | $2.8M |
| 2026-02-09 | 2,666 | $40.03 | $106,719.98 |
| 2026-02-06 | 26,375 | $38.67 | $1.0M |
| 2026-02-05 | 9,500 | $41.07 | $390,165 |
| 2026-01-30 | 426 | $45.71 | $19,472.46 |
| 2026-01-27 | 2,540 | $45.55 | $115,697 |
| 2026-01-16 | 4,457 | $40.84 | $182,023.88 |
| 2026-01-14 | 25,547 | $40.94 | $1.0M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare OR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.