ORI (ORI)

$9.9B
Market Cap
10.8
P/E Ratio
0.75
Beta
3.20%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 7/9Altman Z 1.0 DistressROIC−WACC -5.4%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 1.0.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The company exhibits a distinct capital structure dynamic where high leverage drives returns rather than operational efficiency, evidenced by an equity multiplier of 5.04x dominating the DuPont ROE decomposition alongside modest asset turnover of 0.31x and healthy net margins of 10.2%. While this leveraged approach generates a reported ROE of 15.8%, the underlying capital allocation quality is constrained by a low ROIC-WACC spread, as an ROIC of only 3.3% suggests returns on invested capital are likely insufficient to cover the cost of debt and equity financing in most environments. Despite these operational headwinds, financial stability remains robust with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating strong balance sheet health and consistent profitability trends that buffer against the risks inherent in such high leverage.

Valuation metrics present a divergence between current pricing and implied growth potential, as the stock trades at a P/E ratio of 10.8x which appears compressed relative to its reported revenue expansion rate of 11.0% YoY. This discount may reflect market skepticism regarding whether future earnings can sustainably support the elevated equity multiplier or if margin compression will occur under pressure from financial costs, even though current profitability remains solid at over ten percent. The data suggests the market is pricing in a scenario where growth execution faces headwinds due to capital intensity, resulting in a valuation that does not fully compensate for the risk profile associated with such aggressive leverage usage despite decent historical performance indicators.

Insider activity introduces a layer of caution into this fundamental picture, as net insider selling totaling $168,160 over the past 90 days signals potential management-level concerns or portfolio rebalancing that contradicts the otherwise stable Piotroski score. This divergence between strong financial metrics and negative insider flow warrants scrutiny regarding whether insiders anticipate challenges in maintaining current growth trajectories or managing the company's capital structure under varying economic conditions, creating a risk-reward asymmetry where downside protection relies heavily on balance sheet resilience while upside catalysts remain unconfirmed by internal stakeholders.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

7/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
1.0
Altman Z-Score
Distress Zone — below 1.8 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.

Profitability & Value Creation

10.2%
Net Margin
3.3%
ROIC
8.7%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: -5.4%— Negative spread.
+11.0%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

10.2%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.31x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
5.04x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
15.8%
Return on Equity
⚠️ High equity multiplier — ROE is being amplified by leverage, not operational excellence.

Balance Sheet Health

4.04x
Debt / Equity
17.8x
Interest Coverage
1.1x
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.3B
EBITDA

Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)

Net Insider Flow
$-168,160
Net Selling
1
Buy Transactions
1
Sale Transactions
2026-03-11GRAY WILLIAM TODDOther3,250 shares
2026-03-11SODARO FRANK JOSEPHSold 1/8 qtrsOther2,752 shares
2026-03-11SMIDDY CRAIG RSold 1/8 qtrsOther9,123 shares
2026-03-11OBERST STEPHEN JSold 1/8 qtrsOther3,679 shares
2026-03-11DARE THOMASSold 2/8 qtrsOther2,752 shares

Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $0.74
Act: $0.81
+10.0%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $0.81
Act: $0.83
+2.9%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $0.76
Act: $0.78
+2.2%
Q1
✗ Miss
Est: $0.88
Act: $0.74
-16.2%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

11.5
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
1.65
Price/Book
2M
Avg Volume
$46.76
52W High
$34.43
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$945M
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding ORI
0.13%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$731B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like KIE or DVY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ORI shares regardless of ORI's individual fundamentals. We estimate $945M of passive capital is structurally linked to ORI through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on ORI's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in ORI to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

ORI Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
ORIEpicenterVBETFVIGETFVYMETFCINFHigh RiskTGTLow RiskSTXLow RiskAFLHigh RiskTRVHigh Risk
ORI Price Drop (%)0

If ORI (ORI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP (CINF) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 4 ETFs with ORI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 23 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

ORI Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
ORI

Float lock-up computed from 23 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-131,985$39.18$77,772.3
2026-05-123,087$39.22$121,072.14
2026-05-08326$39.48$12,870.48
2026-05-059,567$38.49$368,233.83
2026-04-231,166$42.07$49,053.62
2026-04-222,107$42.83$90,242.81
2026-04-142,431$41.49$100,862.19
2026-04-074,699$40.34$189,557.66
2026-04-064,699$40.39$189,792.61
2026-03-31492$39.93$19,645.56
2026-03-27848$39.81$33,758.88
2026-03-2320,679$37.91$783,940.89
2026-02-2427,921$41.61$1.2M
2026-02-051,143$40.81$46,645.83
2026-02-041,080$40.21$43,426.8
2026-01-272,520$38.74$97,624.8
2026-01-263,282$37.94$124,519.08
2026-01-22159$43.12$6,856.08
2026-01-14103,557$41.84$4.3M
2026-01-087$42.67$298.69
2026-01-05470$43.27$20,336.9
2025-12-182,430$45.80$111,294
2025-12-125,341$44.47$237,514.27
2025-12-103,511$43.26$151,885.86
2025-12-0910,895$43.29$471,644.55
2025-12-036,627$44.76$296,624.52
2025-11-2832,933$46.41$1.5M
2025-11-211,059$45.08$47,739.72
2025-11-1820,384$43.49$886,500.16
2025-11-174,188$44.35$185,737.8

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare ORI to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.