The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 9.7x earnings — a 50% discount to the sector average of 19.2x — PGR is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 2.1. DCF fair value of $1140 implies 471% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of The Progressive Corporation reveal a company generating robust returns on capital, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of +2.7%, which indicates value creation above the cost of equity despite moderate leverage and asset turnover driving its 37.3% DuPont ROE. While profitability remains strong with a net margin of 12.9%, financial stability metrics present a nuanced picture; the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggests intermediate quality, whereas an Altman Z-Score of 2.2 signals proximity to distress thresholds that warrants scrutiny regarding long-term solvency. This divergence between high capital efficiency and lower credit safety scores creates a complex fundamental profile where operational leverage is offset by potential balance sheet fragility.
Valuation metrics display significant dissonance, with the current P/E ratio of 10.2x trading at roughly half the sector average of 18.4x, suggesting a substantial discount relative to peers. However, this valuation gap conflicts sharply with DCF-derived fair value estimates implying nearly 678% upside, while simultaneously indicating that the market is pricing in severe headwinds, reflected by an implied free cash flow growth rate of -10.2% over ten years. Such a disconnect between low multiple compression and aggressive negative growth assumptions implies the current price may already be reflecting extreme pessimism regarding future earnings sustainability rather than offering traditional value based on historical norms.
Risk-adjusted performance data further complicates the investment thesis, as the stock exhibits a Fama-French alpha of -34.77% annually, underperforming its risk factors significantly over time. Although it holds a positive value tilt with an HML factor of 0.515, this is counterbalanced by neutral profitability momentum (RMW: -0.011) and concerning insider activity showing $2,412,979 in net selling over the last ninety days. These factors collectively suggest that while the company operates with efficient capital deployment, the combination of negative alpha generation, insider distribution, and depressed cash flow growth expectations creates a high-risk environment where downside protection may be eroded by market sentiment shifts.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 16% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.8% | 9.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $1425 | $963 | $695 |
| 3% | $1859 | $1140 | $781 |
| 4% | $2727 | $1411 | $897 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $196.82.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $1140 (+471.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 37% below its 5-year average P/E of 16.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe stock PGR is trading below its 50-day moving average but above its longer-term 200-day moving average, indicating a potential near-term downtrend within an overall sideways to slightly bullish trend over the past few months. With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 42.7, the security currently appears to be in a relatively oversold condition, suggesting it may experience some upward pressure if recent selling momentum subsides.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | $0.1000 | -99.3% |
| 2026-01-02 | $13.6000 | +13500.0% |
| 2025-10-02 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-03 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-03 | $0.1000 | -97.8% |
| 2025-01-10 | $4.6000 | +4500.0% |
| 2024-10-03 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-03 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-03 | $0.1000 | -88.2% |
| 2024-01-18 | $0.8500 | +750.0% |
| 2023-10-04 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-06 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like KIE or XLF, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell PGR shares regardless of The Progressive Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $13.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to PGR through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in The Progressive Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If The Progressive Corporation (PGR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with PGR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
PGR Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 PGR shares, reducing daily market volatility.
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.7% of the KIE (KIE) and 1.6% of the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 70M shares (11.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest PGR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
PGR Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for The Progressive Corporation over the past year sits near $206.97 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $196.82 sits 4.9% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
PGR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does The Progressive Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
The Progressive Corporation converts 116% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 1.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 11,888 | $200.89 | $2.4M |
| 2026-04-21 | 75 | $203.78 | $15,283.5 |
| 2026-04-20 | 93 | $202.58 | $18,839.94 |
| 2026-04-17 | 1,601 | $203.47 | $325,755.47 |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | $196.59 | $1,179.54 |
| 2026-04-10 | 145 | $199.88 | $28,982.6 |
| 2026-04-07 | 42 | $196.38 | $8,247.96 |
| 2026-04-06 | 41 | $195.25 | $8,005.25 |
| 2026-03-31 | 104,132 | $201.39 | $21.0M |
| 2026-03-26 | 17,031 | $202.84 | $3.5M |
| 2026-03-25 | 59 | $206.21 | $12,166.39 |
| 2026-03-24 | 47,605 | $205.10 | $9.8M |
| 2026-03-23 | 35 | $206.00 | $7,210 |
| 2026-03-13 | 237 | $205.18 | $48,627.66 |
| 2026-03-02 | 17,594 | $213.66 | $3.8M |
| 2026-02-24 | 914 | $203.69 | $186,172.66 |
| 2026-02-23 | 1,900 | $204.08 | $387,752 |
| 2026-02-20 | 10,046 | $201.77 | $2.0M |
| 2026-02-12 | 1,088 | $208.37 | $226,706.56 |
| 2026-02-04 | 161 | $201.03 | $32,365.83 |
| 2026-02-03 | 48 | $203.04 | $9,745.92 |
| 2026-01-30 | 50 | $208.26 | $10,413 |
| 2026-01-27 | 475 | $208.00 | $98,800 |
| 2026-01-13 | 3 | $216.50 | $649.5 |
| 2026-01-07 | 2,921 | $212.35 | $620,274.35 |
| 2026-01-02 | 528 | $227.72 | $120,236.16 |
| 2025-12-31 | 11,426 | $229.97 | $2.6M |
| 2025-12-24 | 1 | $227.89 | $227.89 |
| 2025-12-22 | 2,541 | $224.28 | $569,895.48 |
| 2025-12-09 | 5,632 | $223.16 | $1.3M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ALL | 0.708 | 0.731 | High co-movement |
| HIG | 0.604 | 0.543 | Moderate |
| CB | 0.589 | 0.558 | Moderate |
| TRV | 0.583 | 0.568 | Moderate |
| WRB | 0.580 | 0.524 | Moderate |
| ACGL | 0.559 | 0.531 | Moderate |
| MMC | 0.540 | 0.333 | Moderate |
| L | 0.515 | 0.470 | Moderate |
| MRSH | 0.512 | 0.380 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare PGR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.