The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 8.9x earnings — a 53% discount to the sector average of 19.2x — HIG is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 1.3. DCF fair value of $654 implies 370% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics reveal a company generating strong returns via high financial leverage rather than operational efficiency, evidenced by an ROE of 20.2% driven primarily by an equity multiplier of 4.53x despite a negative capital allocation spread where the ROIC of 4.6% falls significantly below the WACC of 7.7%. While the Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates robust financial health and consistent profitability with a net margin of 13.7%, the Altman Z-Score of 1.3 signals elevated bankruptcy risk, suggesting that the high leverage amplifies distress potential during economic downturns. This tension between strong historical earnings quality and precarious solvency metrics creates a complex profile where current growth is modest at 6.4% YoY, yet supported by substantial value factor exposure with an HML score of 0.861.
Valuation analysis presents a stark divergence between market pricing and discounted cash flow models; the stock trades at a P/E of 10.2x, which appears compressed relative to its implied long-term trajectory if one accepts the DCF fair value projection of $664 representing nearly 391% upside. However, this valuation gap relies on an assumption of negative free cash flow growth averaging -9.2% over a decade, rendering the optimistic price target contingent on a significant reversal in capital generation trends that currently contradict the implied inputs. The market appears to be pricing in persistent underperformance or structural headwinds given the disconnect between current multiples and the theoretical DCF outcome, leaving investors to weigh whether the low multiple reflects a permanent impairment of value drivers or an undervaluation opportunity predicated on future operational turnarounds.
Risk assessment highlights conflicting signals regarding momentum versus insider sentiment; while the Fama-French alpha of 6.89% annually suggests strong risk-adjusted outperformance relative to standard factor models, this is counterbalanced by a net insider selling flow exceeding $54 million over ninety days. The combination of high leverage, negative implied cash flow growth, and significant executive divestiture creates a scenario where the attractive valuation metrics may be masking underlying capital destruction risks that could invalidate long-term return assumptions if operational efficiency does not improve to align ROIC with WACC.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 6% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.7% | 9.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $810 | $552 | $399 |
| 3% | $1055 | $654 | $448 |
| 4% | $1544 | $810 | $514 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $127.17.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $654 (+370.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 25% above its 5-year average P/E of 8.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. is currently trading at $136.02 within the Financial Services sector, presenting a snapshot where price action must be weighed against underlying risk dynamics rather than isolated data points. Without access to specific moving averages, relative strength index values, or recent drawdown percentages, it remains impossible to determine if current momentum represents a robust structural shift or a fragile consolidation phase susceptible to market volatility. The absence of fundamental backdrop details further obscures the relationship between earnings stability and price behavior, leaving the trajectory ambiguous regarding whether the asset is building sustainable value or merely reacting to temporary liquidity flows. In this environment, technical indicators alone cannot definitively distinguish between a long-term trend reversal and short-term noise without corroborating volume profiles or support/resistance levels that define risk thresholds. The current price level of $136.02 serves as an anchor point for analysis but offers no inherent signal regarding future direction when stripped of broader context such as sector rotation patterns or macroeconomic stressors often prevalent in insurance equities. Stakeholders observing this setup would need to scrutinize how volatility clusters around this specific valuation, assessing whether the asset demonstrates resilience during periods of market turbulence or if its recent performance relies heavily on favorable sentiment that could evaporate quickly. Ultimately, the technical landscape for The Hartford Insurance Group at this juncture appears neutral in terms of directional certainty, requiring deeper integration with fundamental metrics to validate any perceived momentum. Until volatility measures and drawdown histories are explicitly defined relative
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-02 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-01 | $0.6000 | +15.4% |
| 2025-09-02 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-02 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-03 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-02 | $0.5200 | +10.6% |
| 2024-09-03 | $0.4700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-03 | $0.4700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-01 | $0.4700 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-30 | $0.4700 | +10.6% |
| 2023-08-31 | $0.4250 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like KIE or VOE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell HIG shares regardless of The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $5.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to HIG through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC CL B (BRK.B) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with HIG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
HIG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 HIG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.8% of the KIE (KIE) and 0.7% of the VOE (VOE). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 43M shares (15.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest HIG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
HIG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. over the past year sits near $131.64 (9% of 252-day volume). The current price of $127.17 sits 3.4% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
HIG Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. converts 107% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 8 | $136.81 | $1,094.48 |
| 2026-04-30 | 108 | $136.64 | $14,757.12 |
| 2026-04-27 | 29,762 | $134.45 | $4.0M |
| 2026-04-24 | 31,769 | $139.61 | $4.4M |
| 2026-04-16 | 366 | $138.75 | $50,782.5 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $138.77 | $416.31 |
| 2026-03-25 | 28 | $135.41 | $3,791.48 |
| 2026-03-23 | 319 | $132.65 | $42,315.35 |
| 2026-03-10 | 949 | $137.95 | $130,914.55 |
| 2026-03-02 | 8,800 | $140.83 | $1.2M |
| 2026-02-26 | 43 | $141.06 | $6,065.58 |
| 2026-02-24 | 25,640 | $140.54 | $3.6M |
| 2026-02-23 | 38,895 | $142.19 | $5.5M |
| 2026-02-20 | 38,318 | $140.31 | $5.4M |
| 2026-02-19 | 38,331 | $141.26 | $5.4M |
| 2026-02-13 | 20,000 | $141.89 | $2.8M |
| 2026-02-09 | 6,700 | $142.56 | $955,152 |
| 2026-02-02 | 622 | $135.06 | $84,007.32 |
| 2026-01-21 | 36,214 | $128.80 | $4.7M |
| 2026-01-16 | 25,810 | $130.82 | $3.4M |
| 2026-01-14 | 9,246 | $131.85 | $1.2M |
| 2026-01-08 | 1 | $135.90 | $135.9 |
| 2026-01-07 | 2 | $136.93 | $273.86 |
| 2025-12-31 | 145 | $138.84 | $20,131.8 |
| 2025-12-10 | 132 | $130.04 | $17,165.28 |
| 2025-12-09 | 69 | $129.73 | $8,951.37 |
| 2025-12-08 | 183 | $129.43 | $23,685.69 |
| 2025-11-26 | 11,469 | $137.57 | $1.6M |
| 2025-11-21 | 1,639 | $134.77 | $220,888.03 |
| 2025-11-17 | 43 | $133.85 | $5,755.55 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| TRV | 0.853 | 0.813 | High co-movement |
| L | 0.806 | 0.772 | High co-movement |
| CINF | 0.779 | 0.705 | High co-movement |
| ALL | 0.743 | 0.718 | High co-movement |
| WRB | 0.719 | 0.651 | High co-movement |
| ACGL | 0.716 | 0.721 | High co-movement |
| CB | 0.713 | 0.677 | High co-movement |
| AFL | 0.701 | 0.688 | High co-movement |
| GL | 0.679 | 0.709 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare HIG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.