PTC (PTC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 9/9, Altman Z 4.9 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this software platform exhibit exceptional quality, anchored by a robust 14.6% ROIC and an immaculate Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, signaling strong financial health and operational stability without earnings manipulation concerns indicated by the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.38. The DuPont decomposition reveals that returns are primarily driven by superior profitability rather than leverage or asset efficiency; a commanding net margin of 26.8% combined with an 0.41x asset turnover rate generates a 19.2% ROE, while the equity multiplier of 1.73x suggests moderate use of debt to amplify returns without excessive risk. This high-margin profile is further underscored by gross margins expanding to 83.8%, reflecting strong pricing power in its product ecosystem alongside revenue growth accelerating to 19.2% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics present a nuanced picture where the current multiple of 20.5x sits below historical peaks and sector averages, implying potential undervaluation relative to peer groups despite premium positioning. A DCF analysis suggests an intrinsic fair value of $218 per share; however, this implies significant growth assumptions that may not be fully reflected in current market pricing given the elevated multiple environment. While the low P/E ratio indicates the market is currently discounting future cash flows less aggressively than historical norms would suggest for a company with such high margin expansion and double-digit revenue growth, investors must weigh whether the 20.5x multiple adequately compensates for execution risks inherent in scaling complex enterprise software solutions.
Insider activity over the last ninety days shows net selling totaling $567,041, which introduces a divergence between institutional-grade fundamentals and management sentiment. This outflow could signal that insiders perceive limited upside near-term or are rebalancing portfolios against potential valuation compression, creating a risk/reward delta where strong operational metrics conflict with leadership confidence signals. Consequently, while the balance sheet strength and margin expansion support long-term value creation, the insider disposition serves as a cautionary indicator regarding short-to-medium term volatility and potential downside catalysts not immediately apparent in the financial statements alone.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.8% | 10.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $264 | $197 | $155 |
| 3% | $304 | $218 | $168 |
| 4% | $361 | $246 | $183 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $218 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VFMV or XSW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell PTC shares regardless of PTC's individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to PTC through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in PTC to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If PTC (PTC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with PTC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 28 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
PTC Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest PTC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
PTC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does PTC convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
PTC converts 76% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 3.9% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 246 | $146.65 | $36,075.9 |
| 2026-05-08 | 455 | $147.65 | $67,180.75 |
| 2026-04-28 | 82 | $136.41 | $11,185.62 |
| 2026-04-24 | 257 | $135.83 | $34,908.31 |
| 2026-04-22 | 404 | $140.93 | $56,935.72 |
| 2026-04-21 | 13,225 | $140.75 | $1.9M |
| 2026-04-16 | 2,049 | $136.58 | $279,852.42 |
| 2026-04-10 | 1,513 | $139.19 | $210,594.47 |
| 2026-03-27 | 65 | $144.01 | $9,360.65 |
| 2026-03-26 | 13,573 | $143.56 | $1.9M |
| 2026-03-25 | 1,519 | $142.96 | $217,156.24 |
| 2026-03-23 | 207 | $149.81 | $31,010.67 |
| 2026-03-12 | 27 | $159.13 | $4,296.51 |
| 2026-03-05 | 393 | $162.97 | $64,047.21 |
| 2026-02-24 | 4 | $150.88 | $603.52 |
| 2026-02-18 | 9,877 | $153.07 | $1.5M |
| 2026-02-17 | 2,225 | $156.77 | $348,813.25 |
| 2026-01-08 | 13,064 | $174.57 | $2.3M |
| 2025-11-24 | 68 | $172.12 | $11,704.16 |
| 2025-11-20 | 1,004 | $171.94 | $172,627.76 |
| 2025-11-13 | 1,322 | $178.16 | $235,527.52 |
| 2025-11-12 | 1,759 | $178.00 | $313,102 |
| 2025-10-27 | 1,666 | $204.81 | $341,213.46 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare PTC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.