PTC (PTC)

$16.5B
Market Cap
20.5
P/E Ratio
1.04
Beta
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 9/9Altman Z 4.9 SafeBeneish M -2.38 CleanROIC−WACC +3.9%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 9/9, Altman Z 4.9 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The fundamental economics of this software platform exhibit exceptional quality, anchored by a robust 14.6% ROIC and an immaculate Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, signaling strong financial health and operational stability without earnings manipulation concerns indicated by the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.38. The DuPont decomposition reveals that returns are primarily driven by superior profitability rather than leverage or asset efficiency; a commanding net margin of 26.8% combined with an 0.41x asset turnover rate generates a 19.2% ROE, while the equity multiplier of 1.73x suggests moderate use of debt to amplify returns without excessive risk. This high-margin profile is further underscored by gross margins expanding to 83.8%, reflecting strong pricing power in its product ecosystem alongside revenue growth accelerating to 19.2% year-over-year.

Valuation metrics present a nuanced picture where the current multiple of 20.5x sits below historical peaks and sector averages, implying potential undervaluation relative to peer groups despite premium positioning. A DCF analysis suggests an intrinsic fair value of $218 per share; however, this implies significant growth assumptions that may not be fully reflected in current market pricing given the elevated multiple environment. While the low P/E ratio indicates the market is currently discounting future cash flows less aggressively than historical norms would suggest for a company with such high margin expansion and double-digit revenue growth, investors must weigh whether the 20.5x multiple adequately compensates for execution risks inherent in scaling complex enterprise software solutions.

Insider activity over the last ninety days shows net selling totaling $567,041, which introduces a divergence between institutional-grade fundamentals and management sentiment. This outflow could signal that insiders perceive limited upside near-term or are rebalancing portfolios against potential valuation compression, creating a risk/reward delta where strong operational metrics conflict with leadership confidence signals. Consequently, while the balance sheet strength and margin expansion support long-term value creation, the insider disposition serves as a cautionary indicator regarding short-to-medium term volatility and potential downside catalysts not immediately apparent in the financial statements alone.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →8.8%10.8%12.8%
2%$264$197$155
3%$304$218$168
4%$361$246$183

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $218 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

Loading chart...
SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

9/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
4.9
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-2.38
Beneish M-Score
Below threshold — no statistical earnings quality concern per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

83.8%
Gross Margin
26.8%
Net Margin
14.6%
ROIC
10.8%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: +3.9%— Positive spread.
+19.2%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+95.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
856.7M
Free Cash Flow

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

26.8%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.41x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
1.73x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
19.2%
Return on Equity
✅ ROE driven primarily by strong profit margins — a sign of pricing power.

Balance Sheet Health

0.73x
Debt / Equity
1.12x
Current Ratio
12.9x
Interest Coverage
0.9x
Net Debt / EBITDA
4.90%
FCF Yield
1.1B
EBITDA

Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)

Net Insider Flow
$-567,041
Net Selling
0
Buy Transactions
3
Sale Transactions
2026-03-16LATHAN CORINNASold 4/8 qtrsSale$106,137
2026-03-13PHAM TRACSold 1/8 qtrsOther1,181 shares
2026-03-03VON STAATS AARON CSold 8/8 qtrsSale$422,240
2026-02-11HANSPAL AMARPREET KOther1,500 shares
2026-02-11CHAFFIN JANICE DURBINSold 2/8 qtrsOther1,801 shares

Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $1.40
Act: $1.79
+27.6%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $1.21
Act: $1.64
+35.3%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $2.27
Act: $3.47
+52.7%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $1.56
Act: $1.92
+22.8%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

Loading drawdown chart...

Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

Loading beta chart...
Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

16.8
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
4.29
Price/Book
1M
Avg Volume
$219.69
52W High
$133.38
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$2.5B
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding PTC
0.04%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$6.2T
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like VFMV or XSW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell PTC shares regardless of PTC's individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to PTC through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in PTC to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

PTC Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
PTCEpicenterVTIETFVOOETFIVVETFMSFTLow RiskAAPLLow RiskNVDALow RiskMETALow RiskLLYLow Risk
PTC Price Drop (%)0

If PTC (PTC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with PTC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 28 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

PTC Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
PTC

Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

PTC Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does PTC convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$857M
EBITDA
$1.1B
FCF Conversion
76%
Reinvestment Rate
24%
76% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
14.6%
ROIC − WACC Spread
3.9%

PTC converts 76% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 3.9% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-11246$146.65$36,075.9
2026-05-08455$147.65$67,180.75
2026-04-2882$136.41$11,185.62
2026-04-24257$135.83$34,908.31
2026-04-22404$140.93$56,935.72
2026-04-2113,225$140.75$1.9M
2026-04-162,049$136.58$279,852.42
2026-04-101,513$139.19$210,594.47
2026-03-2765$144.01$9,360.65
2026-03-2613,573$143.56$1.9M
2026-03-251,519$142.96$217,156.24
2026-03-23207$149.81$31,010.67
2026-03-1227$159.13$4,296.51
2026-03-05393$162.97$64,047.21
2026-02-244$150.88$603.52
2026-02-189,877$153.07$1.5M
2026-02-172,225$156.77$348,813.25
2026-01-0813,064$174.57$2.3M
2025-11-2468$172.12$11,704.16
2025-11-201,004$171.94$172,627.76
2025-11-131,322$178.16$235,527.52
2025-11-121,759$178.00$313,102
2025-10-271,666$204.81$341,213.46

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare PTC to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.