PTCT (PTCT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicStrong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 1.7. Beneish M-Score of -1.56 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company exhibits exceptional capital efficiency with an ROIC of 34.7% significantly outpacing its WACC of 7.2%, generating a robust spread of +27.6%. This high return on invested capital is underpinned by superior operational leverage, evidenced by net margins expanding to 39.4% and gross margins reaching an industry-leading 97.3%. While the Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggests strong fundamental health regarding profitability and asset quality, the Altman Z-Score of 1.7 indicates a proximity to distress thresholds that warrants scrutiny despite the high margin environment. The Beneish M-Score of -1.56 further supports the integrity of these reported earnings by signaling low likelihood of manipulation.
Valuation metrics present a notable divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at a P/E multiple of 7.6x, the stock appears deeply discounted relative to its historical trajectory and sector peers who typically command premiums for such margin profiles. A DCF analysis implies a fair value of $123, suggesting significant upside potential if current growth assumptions hold; however, this valuation is heavily dependent on sustaining revenue growth rates currently at 114.5% year-over-year. The market's willingness to price in such aggressive expansion while maintaining low multiples indicates either extreme caution regarding the sustainability of these margins or a belief that future cash flows will normalize from their current peak.
The risk-reward profile is characterized by high asymmetry driven by conflicting signals between growth momentum and financial stability metrics. While insider activity data was not provided to assess management alignment, the Altman Z-Score introduces downside volatility risks that contrast sharply with the Piotroski score's positive indicators. Investors must weigh whether the current valuation adequately compensates for the potential erosion of those exceptional gross margins or if the market is unduly pessimistic about the durability of this high-growth phase.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.2% | 9.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $134 | $101 | $69 |
| 3% | $177 | $123 | $79 |
| 4% | $262 | $160 | $93 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $123 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XBI or SLYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell PTCT shares regardless of PTCT's individual fundamentals. We estimate $319M of passive capital is structurally linked to PTCT through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on PTCT's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in PTCT to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If PTCT (PTCT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies KRYSTAL BIOTECH INC (KRYS) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with PTCT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 9 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
PTCT Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest PTCT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 10 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
PTCT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does PTCT convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
PTCT converts 46% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 54% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 27.6% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 7 | $73.46 | $514.22 |
| 2026-05-08 | 11,393 | $64.49 | $734,734.57 |
| 2026-05-06 | 235 | $65.04 | $15,284.4 |
| 2026-04-29 | 71 | $70.26 | $4,988.46 |
| 2026-04-27 | 7 | $68.23 | $477.61 |
| 2026-04-21 | 2,218 | $72.32 | $160,405.76 |
| 2026-04-20 | 42 | $72.43 | $3,042.06 |
| 2026-04-13 | 1,900 | $68.69 | $130,511 |
| 2026-04-09 | 48,960 | $71.26 | $3.5M |
| 2026-04-02 | 24 | $68.75 | $1,650 |
| 2026-04-01 | 24 | $68.13 | $1,635.12 |
| 2026-03-30 | 90 | $66.13 | $5,951.7 |
| 2026-03-27 | 106 | $67.00 | $7,102 |
| 2026-03-25 | 1,751 | $64.54 | $113,009.54 |
| 2026-03-23 | 1,598 | $65.30 | $104,349.4 |
| 2026-03-19 | 259 | $67.00 | $17,353 |
| 2026-03-17 | 9 | $66.71 | $600.39 |
| 2026-03-13 | 65 | $63.36 | $4,118.4 |
| 2026-03-09 | 49 | $62.82 | $3,078.18 |
| 2026-03-03 | 5 | $66.37 | $331.85 |
| 2026-02-19 | 6 | $68.93 | $413.58 |
| 2026-02-18 | 6 | $69.17 | $415.02 |
| 2026-02-11 | 5 | $72.14 | $360.7 |
| 2026-02-09 | 24,324 | $74.68 | $1.8M |
| 2026-02-06 | 19,138 | $72.36 | $1.4M |
| 2026-02-05 | 10,506 | $73.91 | $776,498.46 |
| 2026-01-30 | 3,732 | $76.43 | $285,236.76 |
| 2026-01-23 | 2,312 | $76.17 | $176,105.04 |
| 2026-01-12 | 170 | $77.53 | $13,180.1 |
| 2026-01-08 | 32 | $77.24 | $2,471.68 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare PTCT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.