TRNO (TRNO)

$6.5B
Market Cap
15.7
P/E Ratio
1.14
Beta
3.43%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 6/9Altman Z 3.5 SafeROIC−WACC -4.2%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 3.5.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The fundamental economics present a distinct dichotomy between exceptional profitability efficiency and modest capital deployment. Despite generating an impressive 84.6% net margin, the return on equity of 9.7% is constrained by low asset turnover at 0.09x and moderate leverage of 1.30x, indicating that growth relies heavily on top-line expansion rather than financial engineering or high-velocity capital cycling. This structural profile yields a ROIC of only 6.8%, which sits below the typical hurdle rate for robust value creation, yet it is underpinned by strong operational momentum evidenced by a 24.5% year-over-year revenue surge and a solid Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, suggesting favorable balance sheet strength relative to peers.

Valuation metrics appear compressed against the backdrop of accelerating growth, with the current P/E ratio of 15.7x trading at a discount to what might be expected for a firm posting double-digit revenue expansion. A discounted cash flow analysis implies a fair value of $54, suggesting that market pricing may not yet fully reflect the trajectory of earnings if margin durability holds through this growth phase. The discrepancy between the low multiple and high margin generation leaves room for interpretation regarding whether the market is appropriately discounting future capital intensity or if there are unseen execution risks embedded in the current price discovery process.

Risk assessment reveals a notable divergence from insider sentiment, characterized by $461,930 of net selling over the last 90 days despite the company's positive earnings momentum and high F-Score. This insider outflow could signal management confidence issues regarding future leverage or margin sustainability that are not immediately apparent in standard fundamental screens. While the Piotroski score indicates strong financial health, the combination of low ROIC relative to growth rates and active insider distribution warrants a cautious examination of whether current valuations adequately compensate for potential capital allocation inefficiencies or strategic shifts yet to materialize.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →9%11%13%
2%$66$49$38
3%$77$54$41
4%$91$61$45

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $54 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

Loading chart...
SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

6/9
Piotroski F-Score
Average — mixed operational signals
3.5
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.

Profitability & Value Creation

75.8%
Gross Margin
84.6%
Net Margin
6.8%
ROIC
11.0%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: -4.2%— Negative spread.
+24.5%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+118.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
208.5M
Free Cash Flow
98%
FCF Payout Ratio

⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

84.6%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.09x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
1.30x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
9.7%
Return on Equity
✅ ROE driven primarily by strong profit margins — a sign of pricing power.

Balance Sheet Health

0.30x
Debt / Equity
0.08x
Current Ratio
13.3x
Interest Coverage
1.4x
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.89%
FCF Yield
528.1M
EBITDA

Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)

Net Insider Flow
$-461,930
Net Selling
0
Buy Transactions
1
Sale Transactions
2026-02-09CANNON JAIME JACKSONSold 2/8 qtrsSale$461,930
2026-01-07COKE MICHAEL ASold 2/8 qtrsGrant29,890 shares
2026-01-07CANNON JAIME JACKSONSold 2/8 qtrsGrant5,757 shares
2026-01-07MEYER JOHN TULLSold 2/8 qtrsGrant7,127 shares
2026-01-07BAIRD W BLAKEGrant29,890 shares

Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $0.35
Act: $0.36
+2.0%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $0.37
Act: $0.37
+2.3%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $0.37
Act: $0.39
+7.2%
Q1
✗ Miss
Est: $0.51
Act: $0.46
-9.0%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

Loading drawdown chart...

Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

Loading beta chart...
Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

41.5
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
1.53
Price/Book
718771
Avg Volume
$66.74
52W High
$48.18
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$675M
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding TRNO
0.16%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$432B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like SLYG or SPSM, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell TRNO shares regardless of TRNO's individual fundamentals. We estimate $675M of passive capital is structurally linked to TRNO through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on TRNO's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in TRNO to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

TRNO Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
TRNOEpicenterVBETFVXFETFVNQETFVRTPXUnknownWELLLow RiskPLDMed RiskEQIXMed RiskAMTHigh Risk
TRNO Price Drop (%)0

If TRNO (TRNO) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with TRNO. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 9 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

TRNO Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
TRNO

Float lock-up computed from 9 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

TRNO Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does TRNO convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$208M
EBITDA
$528M
FCF Conversion
39%
Reinvestment Rate
61%
39% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
6.8%
ROIC − WACC Spread
-4.2%

TRNO converts 39% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 61% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-4.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-13123,917$65.91$8.2M
2026-05-05128$64.55$8,262.4
2026-04-233,456$65.99$228,061.44
2026-04-22385$66.24$25,502.4
2026-04-141,633$65.60$107,124.8
2026-04-10267$65.29$17,432.43
2026-03-267,991$61.66$492,725.06
2026-03-251,009$61.00$61,549
2026-03-23831$60.37$50,167.47
2026-03-18131$63.47$8,314.57
2026-03-162$62.18$124.36
2026-03-1399$62.12$6,149.88
2026-03-12682$62.71$42,768.22
2026-02-2735$66.32$2,321.2
2026-02-261,253$66.27$83,036.31
2026-02-251,141$65.37$74,587.17
2026-02-2410$65.73$657.3
2026-02-20484$64.98$31,450.32
2026-02-1351$64.50$3,289.5
2026-02-10130$65.98$8,577.4
2026-02-0932$66.10$2,115.2
2026-02-06130$65.08$8,460.4
2026-02-0529$64.44$1,868.76
2026-02-03404$61.56$24,870.24
2026-02-023,790$61.54$233,236.6
2026-01-2771,301$61.04$4.4M
2026-01-23243$62.00$15,066
2026-01-22624$62.50$39,000
2026-01-16200$61.30$12,260
2025-12-24394$59.79$23,557.26

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare TRNO to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.