ZM (ZM)

$22.9B
Market Cap
12.5
P/E Ratio
0.97
Beta
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 7/9Altman Z 8.4 SafeBeneish M -2.34 CleanROIC−WACC -1.9%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 8.4 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The company exhibits robust fundamental quality, characterized by a high Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a negative Beneish M-Score of -2.34, which collectively signal strong financial health with low earnings manipulation risk. The DuPont analysis reveals that the 19.4% ROE is primarily driven by exceptional operational efficiency rather than leverage; specifically, the dominant net margin of 39.0% and a gross margin of 77.0% outweigh the modest asset turnover of 0.41x, while an equity multiplier of only 1.22x indicates conservative capital structure usage. Although the ROIC spread relative to WACC is not explicitly quantified in the provided data, the combination of high profitability metrics and a low leverage ratio suggests a business model with significant economic moats that do not rely heavily on debt financing or aggressive asset cycling.

Valuation appears compressed relative to historical earnings power, as evidenced by the current P/E multiple of 12.5x, which trades at a discount when compared against implied growth rates derived from the DCF fair value estimate of $162. This discrepancy suggests the market may be pricing in slower revenue expansion, particularly given the year-over-year growth rate of just 4.4%, potentially creating an opportunity if future top-line acceleration materializes to bridge the gap between current multiples and intrinsic value. The divergence between the high profitability metrics and subdued valuation implies that either macro headwinds or specific sector concerns are suppressing the price below its calculated fair value, leaving room for re-rating should growth assumptions improve.

However, a critical risk factor emerges from recent insider activity, with $10,380,093 in net selling over the past 90 days. This substantial outflow by insiders contrasts sharply with the company's strong fundamental scores and valuation metrics, potentially signaling management concerns about near-term visibility or capital allocation priorities that are not immediately apparent from balance sheet data alone. While the financial fundamentals remain pristine with no signs of earnings quality issues, this insider divergence introduces a layer of uncertainty regarding future strategic direction, requiring careful weighing against the attractive discount to DCF fair value before forming an investment thesis.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →8.8%10.8%12.8%
2%$193$148$119
3%$220$162$128
4%$258$181$138

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $162 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

7/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
8.4
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-2.34
Beneish M-Score
Below threshold — no statistical earnings quality concern per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

77.0%
Gross Margin
39.0%
Net Margin
8.9%
ROIC
10.8%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: -1.9%— Negative spread.
+4.4%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+88.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.9B
Free Cash Flow

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

39.0%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.41x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
1.22x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
19.4%
Return on Equity
✅ ROE driven primarily by strong profit margins — a sign of pricing power.

Balance Sheet Health

0.22x
Debt / Equity
4.33x
Current Ratio
-1.0x
Net Debt / EBITDA
8.89%
FCF Yield
1.3B
EBITDA

Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)

Net Insider Flow
-$10M
Net Selling
0
Buy Transactions
9
Sale Transactions
2026-03-10SANKARLINGAM VELCHAMYSold 7/7 qtrsSale$202,642
2026-03-09SANKARLINGAM VELCHAMYSold 7/7 qtrsOther7,031 shares
2026-03-04SUBOTOVSKY SANTIAGOSold 6/7 qtrsSale$191,619
2026-02-05SUBOTOVSKY SANTIAGOSold 6/7 qtrsSale$223,716
2026-02-03YUAN ERIC S.Sold 7/7 qtrsOther24,200 shares

Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $1.31
Act: $1.43
+9.5%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $1.38
Act: $1.53
+11.0%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $1.44
Act: $1.52
+5.8%
Q1
✗ Miss
Est: $1.49
Act: $1.44
-3.1%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

12.6
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
2.33
Price/Book
4M
Avg Volume
$97.58
52W High
$64.41
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$2.3B
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding ZM
0.08%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$2.8T
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like XSW or VOE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ZM shares regardless of ZM's individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to ZM through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in ZM to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

ZM Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
ZMEpicenterVTIETFVTVETFVOETFWDCLow RiskCMILow RiskMRVLLow RiskSLBLow RiskLNGMed Risk
ZM Price Drop (%)0

If ZM (ZM) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Western Digital Corp. (WDC) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with ZM. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 13 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

ZM Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
ZM

Float lock-up computed from 13 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

ZM Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does ZM convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$1.9B
EBITDA
$1.3B
FCF Conversion
153%
Reinvestment Rate
-53%
153% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
8.9%
ROIC − WACC Spread
-1.9%

ZM converts 153% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.9%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-071$105.13$105.13
2026-05-0559,968$106.63$6.4M
2026-05-04600$103.44$62,064
2026-04-306,486$95.76$621,099.36
2026-04-273,200$92.03$294,496
2026-04-2320$91.92$1,838.4
2026-04-221$90.96$90.96
2026-04-206,589$88.02$579,963.78
2026-04-164$89.03$356.12
2026-04-149$82.80$745.2
2026-04-1329,345$79.24$2.3M
2026-04-08106$84.02$8,906.12
2026-04-061,300$82.36$107,068
2026-03-319$78.68$708.12
2026-03-278$79.32$634.56
2026-03-24511$77.95$39,832.45
2026-03-20528$76.74$40,518.72
2026-03-17481$74.96$36,055.76
2026-03-101,788$77.06$137,783.28
2026-03-09500$77.50$38,750
2026-03-04135$73.50$9,922.5
2026-02-271,655$75.54$125,018.7
2026-02-2628$85.43$2,392.04
2026-02-191,086$91.12$98,956.32
2026-02-1733$92.60$3,055.8
2026-02-11782$94.99$74,282.18
2026-02-093,102$92.20$286,004.4
2026-02-05874$90.83$79,385.42
2026-02-03875$92.87$81,261.25
2026-02-02400$92.10$36,840

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare ZM to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.