AAON, Inc. (AAON)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAAON trades at 95.9x earnings — a 107% premium to its sector average of 46.2x — without a dominant ROIC-WACC spread. Below-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 2/9. Beneish M-Score of -1.64 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-18 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-26 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-05 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-06 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-18 | $0.1000 | +25.0% |
| 2024-11-29 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-06 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-07 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-15 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-28 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-07 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHB or MDYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AAON shares regardless of AAON, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $596M of passive capital is structurally linked to AAON through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on AAON's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in AAON, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If AAON, Inc. (AAON) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies SOMNIGROUP INTERNATIONAL INC (SGI) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with AAON. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 12 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AAON Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 18 AAON shares, reducing daily market volatility.
AAON, Inc. (AAON) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.5% of the XHB (XHB) and 0.5% of the MDYG (MDYG). Across 12 tracked ETFs, approximately 5M shares (5.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest AAON Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 12 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AAON Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for AAON, Inc. over the past year sits near $81.67 (18% of 252-day volume). The current price of $129.45 trades 58.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (18% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AAON Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does AAON, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
AAON, Inc. converts -90% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 190% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 2,185 | $129.25 | $282,411.25 |
| 2026-05-07 | 1,133 | $98.30 | $111,373.9 |
| 2026-04-29 | 89 | $88.08 | $7,839.12 |
| 2026-04-24 | 12 | $98.71 | $1,184.52 |
| 2026-04-23 | 51 | $96.86 | $4,939.86 |
| 2026-04-22 | 203 | $95.74 | $19,435.22 |
| 2026-04-21 | 51 | $97.90 | $4,992.9 |
| 2026-04-20 | 138 | $93.98 | $12,969.24 |
| 2026-04-17 | 24 | $91.48 | $2,195.52 |
| 2026-04-14 | 28 | $93.54 | $2,619.12 |
| 2026-04-13 | 10 | $93.17 | $931.7 |
| 2026-04-10 | 120 | $90.77 | $10,892.4 |
| 2026-04-08 | 6,407 | $80.88 | $518,198.16 |
| 2026-03-26 | 253 | $87.83 | $22,220.99 |
| 2026-03-17 | 957 | $81.56 | $78,052.92 |
| 2026-03-12 | 74,620 | $91.51 | $6.8M |
| 2026-03-11 | 18,918 | $90.54 | $1.7M |
| 2026-03-10 | 384 | $90.33 | $34,686.72 |
| 2026-03-09 | 2,444 | $88.33 | $215,878.52 |
| 2026-03-03 | 1,273 | $104.73 | $133,321.29 |
| 2026-03-02 | 156 | $101.20 | $15,787.2 |
| 2026-02-27 | 49,270 | $98.89 | $4.9M |
| 2026-02-26 | 923 | $99.05 | $91,423.15 |
| 2026-02-18 | 7 | $102.78 | $719.46 |
| 2026-02-13 | 69 | $101.61 | $7,011.09 |
| 2026-02-05 | 9,043 | $95.24 | $861,255.32 |
| 2026-02-02 | 33 | $91.06 | $3,004.98 |
| 2026-01-30 | 10,391 | $93.31 | $969,584.21 |
| 2026-01-27 | 8 | $93.47 | $747.76 |
| 2026-01-21 | 1,035 | $91.74 | $94,950.9 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare AAON to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-23.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.