Aflac Incorporated (AFL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAFL trades at 14.1x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 20.0x. Below-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 2/9; Altman Z of 1.4 falls in the academic distress zone.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this insurer reveal a significant capital efficiency gap, where the return on invested capital trails the cost of equity by 5.0%, indicating value destruction at the margin despite a robust 21.0% net margin. This elevated profitability is primarily driven by high financial leverage rather than operational momentum or asset velocity; while margins remain strong, the 0.15x asset turnover and negative spread suggest earnings are propped up by a 3.95x equity multiplier amid shrinking revenue streams that contracted 9.3% year-over-year. Compounding these structural concerns is a deteriorating financial health profile, evidenced by a low Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 1.3, which flags potential distress risks inconsistent with the company's historical stability metrics.
Valuation multiples currently sit at 16.2x earnings, trading below both its own historical trajectory and the sector average of 18.4x, suggesting the market has already priced in significant downside pressure regarding growth prospects. However, this discount may not fully reflect the underlying capital allocation challenges if implied DCF models fail to bridge the widening gap between returns generated and costs required. The stock exhibits a clear value tilt with an HML factor of 0.722, yet it lacks momentum support from profitability factors which remain neutral at 0.046.
Risk-adjusted performance data further complicates the investment case, as the security has underperformed its peer group by nearly 11% annually according to Fama-French alpha metrics. This negative outperformance is reinforced by substantial insider activity showing $37 million in net selling over the last ninety days, a signal often interpreted by algorithms as a lack of confidence from management regarding near-term valuation or operational hurdles. The convergence of negative capital spread, declining top-line growth, and adverse risk factors presents a complex picture where current pricing may offer safety but lacks clear catalysts for alpha generation.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 66% below its 5-year average P/E of 41.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAflac Incorporated currently trades at $117.86 within the Financial Services sector, presenting a scenario where price action must be weighed against inherent market risks rather than isolated data points. The specific absence of drawdown metrics or volatility figures in the provided dataset prevents a definitive quantification of recent momentum stability; consequently, any assessment of whether current trends are structural or fragile relies heavily on external fundamental backdrops not included here. Without concrete measures of price fluctuation ranges or significant pullbacks from recent highs, it remains technically ambiguous to determine if the asset is exhibiting resilient strength or merely temporary consolidation before a potential correction. The sector classification suggests exposure to broader economic cycles that often amplify volatility during periods of shifting interest rates or changing consumer health expenditure patterns. While the current price level offers a snapshot of valuation relative to history, interpreting this single data point as an indicator of future risk dynamics is inherently limited. The interplay between the stock's specific technical configuration and its fundamental environment dictates whether observed movements represent sustainable growth phases or precarious rallies susceptible to sudden reversals. Stakeholders must evaluate how external macroeconomic factors might interact with these unknown volatility parameters before forming conclusions about the asset's trajectory, as the provided information alone does not reveal the depth of recent corrections or the intensity of price swings that define risk profiles in financial services equities.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | $0.6100 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-18 | $0.6100 | +5.2% |
| 2025-11-19 | $0.5800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-20 | $0.5800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-21 | $0.5800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-19 | $0.5800 | +16.0% |
| 2024-11-20 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-21 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-21 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-20 | $0.5000 | +19.0% |
| 2023-11-14 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-22 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like KIE or NOBL, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AFL shares regardless of Aflac Incorporated's individual fundamentals. We estimate $7.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to AFL through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Aflac Incorporated to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Aflac Incorporated (AFL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies JPMORGAN CHASE + CO (JPM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with AFL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 33 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AFL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 AFL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Aflac Incorporated (AFL) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.8% of the KIE (KIE) and 1.4% of the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL). Across 35 tracked ETFs, approximately 74M shares (14.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest AFL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 35 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AFL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Aflac Incorporated over the past year sits near $109.91 (17% of 252-day volume). The current price of $124.72 trades 13.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (17% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | 41,000 | $114.50 | $4.7M |
| 2026-05-26 | 281 | $117.86 | $33,118.66 |
| 2026-05-22 | 894 | $117.81 | $105,322.14 |
| 2026-05-12 | 93 | $115.48 | $10,739.64 |
| 2026-05-04 | 500 | $112.88 | $56,440 |
| 2026-04-27 | 589 | $114.62 | $67,511.18 |
| 2026-04-21 | 2 | $114.67 | $229.34 |
| 2026-04-15 | 210 | $111.94 | $23,507.4 |
| 2026-04-01 | 388 | $109.71 | $42,567.48 |
| 2026-03-31 | 10 | $108.17 | $1,081.7 |
| 2026-03-27 | 68 | $108.21 | $7,358.28 |
| 2026-03-25 | 47 | $106.20 | $4,991.4 |
| 2026-03-23 | 2 | $106.22 | $212.44 |
| 2026-03-13 | 204 | $109.63 | $22,364.52 |
| 2026-03-12 | 82 | $109.33 | $8,965.06 |
| 2026-03-06 | 572 | $111.04 | $63,514.88 |
| 2026-03-04 | 58 | $112.43 | $6,520.94 |
| 2026-03-02 | 4 | $112.93 | $451.72 |
| 2026-02-26 | 1 | $112.44 | $112.44 |
| 2026-02-18 | 13,880 | $115.42 | $1.6M |
| 2026-02-12 | 58 | $116.25 | $6,742.5 |
| 2026-02-09 | 287 | $117.15 | $33,622.05 |
| 2026-02-06 | 7 | $117.47 | $822.29 |
| 2026-01-28 | 4,089 | $108.38 | $443,165.82 |
| 2026-01-20 | 16 | $109.51 | $1,752.16 |
| 2025-12-18 | 100 | $110.50 | $11,050 |
| 2025-12-01 | 107 | $110.31 | $11,803.17 |
| 2025-11-25 | 4,449 | $110.38 | $491,080.62 |
| 2025-11-20 | 28 | $109.40 | $3,063.2 |
| 2025-11-19 | 8,300 | $111.76 | $927,608 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| GVMXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MGMXX | NaN | NaN | |
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| HIG | 0.663 | 0.720 | Moderate |
| MMC | 0.625 | 0.524 | Moderate |
| ACGL | 0.600 | 0.653 | Moderate |
| TRV | 0.595 | 0.613 | Moderate |
| ALL | 0.577 | 0.645 | Moderate |
| CINF | 0.574 | 0.546 | Moderate |
| L | 0.566 | 0.556 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AFL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-07-17.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.