American International Group, Inc. (AIG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 13.1x earnings — a 32% discount to the sector average of 19.2x — AIG is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 0.8.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of American International Group reveal a capital allocation challenge, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -5.6%, indicating that the firm is currently destroying value relative to its cost of equity. Despite this negative economic moat, earnings power persists through high leverage; the DuPont decomposition shows an Equity Multiplier of 3.92x driving a 7.5% ROE from modest margins and low asset turnover, rather than operational efficiency improvements. Risk metrics further underscore structural fragility: an Altman Z-Score of 0.8 signals elevated bankruptcy risk, while a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggests the company is neither improving nor deteriorating fundamentally at this moment.
Valuation appears depressed relative to peers and historical norms, with a current P/E of 13.9x trading significantly below the sector average of 18.4x. This discount may reflect market pricing in the low capital efficiency and high distress risk rather than an undervalued opportunity, especially given that profitability factors remain neutral at 0.020. While insider activity shows a modest net buying flow of $3,407 over ninety days, suggesting some confidence from management despite the weak fundamentals, the stock's performance has been poor under factor models. Specifically, the Fama-French alpha stands at -23.04% annually, indicating substantial underperformance after adjusting for market, size, and value exposures, even though it retains a slight positive tilt on the value factor with an HML score of 1.066.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 71% below its 5-year average P/E of 49.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAmerican International Group, Inc. is currently trading at $77.05 within the Financial Services sector. To determine the prevailing trend and momentum, one must compare this price level against relevant moving averages to see if it remains above or below these key support and resistance lines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) serves as a critical gauge for short-term momentum; its specific reading would indicate whether buying pressure is intensifying or if selling forces are gaining traction in the immediate term. Without knowing the precise RSI value, analysts observe that extreme readings often signal potential reversals, while mid-range values suggest continued volatility without clear directional exhaustion. The interaction between the current price of $77.05 and its historical moving averages will reveal whether the asset is in a bullish phase or facing bearish pressure. If the price sustains levels above these averages, it typically reflects an uptrend supported by positive investor sentiment. Conversely, trading below them might indicate weakening momentum or a corrective phase. The RSI complements this view by quantifying the speed and change of price movements, helping to identify if the market is approaching overbought or oversold conditions that could precipitate a shift in direction. Together, these technical elements provide a snapshot of market dynamics rather than predicting future performance with certainty.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-16 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-16 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $0.4500 | +12.5% |
| 2025-03-17 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-16 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-16 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.4000 | +11.1% |
| 2024-03-13 | $0.3600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-13 | $0.3600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.3600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-15 | $0.3600 | +12.5% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like KIE or VOE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AIG shares regardless of American International Group, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $5.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to AIG through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in American International Group, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If American International Group, Inc. (AIG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC CL B (BRK.B) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with AIG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AIG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 AIG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
American International Group, Inc. (AIG) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.8% of the KIE (KIE) and 0.7% of the VOE (VOE). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 79M shares (14.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest AIG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AIG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for American International Group, Inc. over the past year sits near $77.27 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $73.80 sits 4.5% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 733 | $76.36 | $55,971.88 |
| 2026-04-29 | 4 | $74.16 | $296.64 |
| 2026-04-20 | 256 | $78.68 | $20,142.08 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $77.02 | $231.06 |
| 2026-04-06 | 333 | $75.42 | $25,114.86 |
| 2026-03-25 | 54 | $74.34 | $4,014.36 |
| 2026-03-24 | 1,525 | $75.09 | $114,512.25 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6 | $74.39 | $446.34 |
| 2026-03-13 | 14 | $76.48 | $1,070.72 |
| 2026-03-05 | 221 | $78.30 | $17,304.3 |
| 2026-02-23 | 81 | $80.44 | $6,515.64 |
| 2026-02-17 | 4,287 | $78.27 | $335,543.49 |
| 2026-02-13 | 3,314 | $78.80 | $261,143.2 |
| 2026-01-26 | 218 | $72.32 | $15,765.76 |
| 2026-01-21 | 807 | $72.44 | $58,459.08 |
| 2026-01-02 | 92 | $85.55 | $7,870.6 |
| 2025-12-24 | 228 | $86.59 | $19,742.52 |
| 2025-12-23 | 1,457 | $86.43 | $125,928.51 |
| 2025-12-22 | 6,570 | $86.03 | $565,217.1 |
| 2025-12-19 | 3,130 | $86.19 | $269,774.7 |
| 2025-12-17 | 40 | $84.54 | $3,381.6 |
| 2025-12-12 | 312 | $82.85 | $25,849.2 |
| 2025-11-28 | 91,736 | $76.04 | $7.0M |
| 2025-11-21 | 10,564 | $75.69 | $799,589.16 |
| 2025-11-20 | 94 | $75.75 | $7,120.5 |
| 2025-11-18 | 38,309 | $76.46 | $2.9M |
| 2025-11-12 | 151 | $76.15 | $11,498.65 |
| 2025-11-07 | 31,339 | $76.28 | $2.4M |
| 2025-11-05 | 452 | $80.71 | $36,480.92 |
| 2025-11-04 | 172,207 | $78.96 | $13.6M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CB | 0.579 | 0.529 | Moderate |
| HIG | 0.575 | 0.496 | Moderate |
| ACGL | 0.560 | 0.469 | Moderate |
| MET | 0.558 | 0.511 | Moderate |
| TRV | 0.549 | 0.495 | Moderate |
| L | 0.544 | 0.453 | Moderate |
| MMC | 0.540 | 0.437 | Moderate |
| CINF | 0.527 | 0.411 | Moderate |
| WRB | 0.494 | 0.413 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AIG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.