Popular, Inc. (BPOP)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 11.0x earnings — a 43% discount to the sector average of 19.2x — BPOP is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 0.2. Near modeled fair value — DCF estimates $145 (-1%).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 9% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.3% | 8.3% | 10.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $173 | $132 | $110 |
| 3% | $206 | $145 | $117 |
| 4% | $268 | $164 | $126 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $151.10.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $145 (-1.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 7% above its 5-year average P/E of 11.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedPopular, Inc. is currently trading at $144.04 within the Financial Services sector. To assess the relative-value position regarding mean-reversion potential, one must observe how this specific price point aligns with its surrounding Simple Moving Average (SMA) envelope. The technical setup hinges on whether the current valuation sits significantly above or below these dynamic averages, as such deviations often signal a divergence from historical trend lines that could invite corrective movements toward equilibrium. If the stock is trading well outside the bounds of its standard deviation bands relative to the SMAs, it suggests an extended state where statistical probability might favor a return to the mean rather than continued directional momentum. Conversely, if the price remains tightly clustered within or near these averages, the implication is that the asset is already pricing in typical volatility without significant overextension. This configuration does not dictate future direction but highlights the current distance from established trend centers, allowing market participants to evaluate the likelihood of a snap-back versus sustained deviation based on historical behavior and broader sector dynamics.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-18 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-05 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-12 | $0.7500 | +7.1% |
| 2025-05-29 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-18 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-06 | $0.7000 | +12.9% |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-30 | $0.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-13 | $0.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-06 | $0.6200 | +12.7% |
| 2023-09-07 | $0.5500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like KRE or KBE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell BPOP shares regardless of Popular, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $595M of passive capital is structurally linked to BPOP through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on BPOP's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Popular, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Popular, Inc. (BPOP) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with BPOP. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 12 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
BPOP Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 15 BPOP shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Popular, Inc. (BPOP) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.6% of the KRE (KRE) and 1.1% of the KBE (KBE). Across 12 tracked ETFs, approximately 4M shares (6.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest BPOP Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 12 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
BPOP Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Popular, Inc. over the past year sits near $112.04 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $151.10 trades 34.9% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 6,319 | $145.46 | $919,161.74 |
| 2026-05-07 | 6 | $150.04 | $900.24 |
| 2026-03-31 | 614 | $130.66 | $80,225.24 |
| 2026-03-23 | 106 | $130.48 | $13,830.88 |
| 2026-03-17 | 715 | $131.27 | $93,858.05 |
| 2026-03-06 | 12,316 | $134.18 | $1.7M |
| 2026-03-04 | 33 | $136.20 | $4,494.6 |
| 2026-02-18 | 15 | $144.90 | $2,173.5 |
| 2026-01-09 | 1,122 | $130.18 | $146,061.96 |
| 2025-12-30 | 7 | $125.79 | $880.53 |
| 2025-12-18 | 194 | $123.04 | $23,869.76 |
| 2025-10-21 | 180 | $118.48 | $21,326.4 |
| 2025-10-14 | 446 | $121.39 | $54,139.94 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| FNB | 0.824 | 0.812 | High co-movement |
| ASB | 0.822 | 0.817 | High co-movement |
| FULT | 0.811 | 0.816 | High co-movement |
| ONB | 0.809 | 0.821 | High co-movement |
| HWC | 0.808 | 0.815 | High co-movement |
| AUB | 0.803 | 0.805 | High co-movement |
| SSB | 0.803 | 0.807 | High co-movement |
| UMBF | 0.802 | 0.821 | High co-movement |
| EWBC | 0.798 | 0.775 | High co-movement |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare BPOP to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.