Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 15.6x earnings — a 58% discount to the sector average of 36.7x — CDE is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 9.4 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $12 implies 40% downside based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -1.24 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Coeur Mining, Inc. reveal a company operating with robust profitability metrics that diverge from its capital efficiency profile. The DuPont decomposition indicates that the 17.7% ROE is primarily driven by an exceptional net margin of 28.3%, supported by strong gross margins at 44.5%, rather than asset turnover or leverage, which remain modest at 0.44x and 1.42x respectively. This high-margin structure aligns with a healthy Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 8.4, suggesting low distress risk and minimal earnings manipulation concerns according to the Beneish M-Score of -1.24. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is narrow at just +1.1%, indicating that while the business generates solid returns on invested capital relative to its cost of equity, it does not currently offer a wide safety margin against capital costs compared to high-quality compounders.
Valuation metrics present a significant divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. The current P/E ratio of 20.1x trades at approximately 45% below the sector average of 36.1x, yet this discount is not reflected in discounted cash flow analysis, which implies a fair value of $13 with -29.1% downside from recent levels. This discrepancy suggests the market may be pricing in lower growth trajectories than the model assumes, despite revenue surging 96.4% year-over-year and implied free cash flow growing at an annualized rate of 9.3%. The stock exhibits a distinct factor profile, showing a negative tilt toward value (-0.448 HML) and weak profitability signals relative to peers (-1.116 RMW), which may explain the valuation compression despite strong top-line momentum.
Risk assessment highlights unusual volatility in risk-adjusted returns rather than fundamental deterioration. The annual Fama-French Alpha of 83.65% is exceptionally high, signaling substantial outperformance after adjusting for market, size, and value factors, yet this comes with a negative profitability factor delta that contradicts the company's reported margin expansion. With insider flow remaining neutral over the last 90 days, there are no clear signals of management conviction or distress in recent trading activity. The data suggests a complex risk/reward dynamic where strong operational metrics coexist with valuation skepticism and anomalous alpha generation, leaving the market to determine whether current pricing adequately compensates for the implied growth slowdowns embedded in DCF models.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 96% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10.8% | 12.8% | 14.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $14 | $11 | $10 |
| 3% | $15 | $12 | $10 |
| 4% | $17 | $13 | $11 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $19.19.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $12 (-40.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 146% above its 5-year average P/E of 8.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCoeur Mining, Inc. currently trades at $17.61 within the Basic Materials sector, presenting a technical snapshot where price action must be weighed against inherent commodity volatility. The current valuation level sits in a zone that often reflects heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts and metal price fluctuations rather than isolated corporate fundamentals. Without specific trendline data or moving average crossovers provided in the immediate dataset, the structural integrity of any upward momentum remains difficult to quantify solely on this single price point. The risk dynamics for this position appear complex given the sector's historical drawdown patterns during periods of economic uncertainty. A price of $17.61 does not inherently indicate stability; rather, it suggests a market that is actively recalibrating based on broader supply-demand imbalances in precious metals. If recent volatility has been elevated, even moderate price movements could represent significant percentage swings relative to the share's historical range, implying that current momentum may be fragile and susceptible to rapid reversal should fundamental catalysts shift unfavorably. Ultimately, the technical picture relies heavily on how this $17.61 level interacts with wider support and resistance zones not explicitly detailed here. The absence of confirmed trend confirmation means that any perceived strength could easily evaporate under increased selling pressure or a deterioration in commodity prices. Stakeholders must evaluate whether observed price behavior represents a sustainable structural change or merely short-term noise amplified by the sector's natural leverage to global economic conditions.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $0.0200 | -98.7% |
| 1997-04-03 | $1.5000 | 0.0% |
| 1996-04-03 | $1.5000 | 0.0% |
| 1995-04-04 | $1.5000 | 0.0% |
| 1994-03-28 | $1.5000 | 0.0% |
| 1993-03-30 | $1.5000 | 0.0% |
| 1992-03-30 | $1.5000 | 0.0% |
| 1991-03-27 | $1.5000 | 0.0% |
| 1990-04-06 | $1.5000 | 0.0% |
| 1989-04-10 | $1.5000 | +50.0% |
| 1988-04-11 | $1.0000 | — |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XME or VAW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CDE shares regardless of Coeur Mining, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $901M of passive capital is structurally linked to CDE through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on CDE's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Coeur Mining, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CDE. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 10 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CDE Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 15 CDE shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.4% of the XME (XME) and 1.2% of the VAW (VAW). Across 10 tracked ETFs, approximately 69M shares (6.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest CDE Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 10 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CDE Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Coeur Mining, Inc. over the past year sits near $18.50 (16% of 252-day volume). The current price of $19.19 trades 3.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (16% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CDE Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Coeur Mining, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Coeur Mining, Inc. converts 69% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.2% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 100 | $20.17 | $2,017 |
| 2026-05-11 | 73,249 | $18.56 | $1.4M |
| 2026-05-08 | 308 | $18.12 | $5,580.96 |
| 2026-05-01 | 303,218 | $17.97 | $5.4M |
| 2026-04-27 | 17,265 | $19.31 | $333,387.15 |
| 2026-04-22 | 184 | $18.44 | $3,392.96 |
| 2026-04-21 | 6,284 | $19.78 | $124,297.52 |
| 2026-04-20 | 73,231 | $20.38 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-17 | 196,883 | $19.51 | $3.8M |
| 2026-04-15 | 56,049 | $21.17 | $1.2M |
| 2026-04-14 | 17,549 | $20.31 | $356,420.19 |
| 2026-04-13 | 36,667 | $20.24 | $742,140.08 |
| 2026-04-09 | 447 | $19.72 | $8,814.84 |
| 2026-04-08 | 1,446,830 | $19.00 | $27.5M |
| 2026-04-07 | 10 | $18.59 | $185.9 |
| 2026-04-06 | 15,342 | $19.09 | $292,878.78 |
| 2026-04-02 | 18,880 | $19.11 | $360,796.8 |
| 2026-04-01 | 810,733 | $18.77 | $15.2M |
| 2026-03-31 | 827,991 | $16.50 | $13.7M |
| 2026-03-30 | 805,118 | $17.13 | $13.8M |
| 2026-03-27 | 1,088,503 | $16.17 | $17.6M |
| 2026-03-26 | 1,303,577 | $17.84 | $23.3M |
| 2026-03-25 | 5,184,894 | $18.31 | $94.9M |
| 2026-03-24 | 474,318 | $17.89 | $8.5M |
| 2026-03-23 | 62,067 | $17.67 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-20 | 460,441 | $18.27 | $8.4M |
| 2026-03-19 | 63,047 | $19.26 | $1.2M |
| 2026-03-18 | 68,613 | $21.04 | $1.4M |
| 2026-03-17 | 41,823 | $20.95 | $876,191.85 |
| 2026-03-13 | 27,905 | $21.69 | $605,259.45 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| HL | 0.771 | 0.836 | High co-movement |
| NEM | 0.659 | 0.789 | Moderate |
| RGLD | 0.658 | 0.760 | Moderate |
| GFI | 0.632 | 0.763 | Moderate |
| GB00BL6K5J42 | 0.618 | 0.687 | Moderate |
| GB00BRXH2664 | 0.614 | 0.720 | Moderate |
| AU | 0.614 | 0.719 | Moderate |
| GB00B2QPKJ12 | 0.517 | 0.589 | Moderate |
| HYMC | 0.495 | 0.592 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CDE to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.