Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicRGLD trades at 27.2x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 36.7x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 6.4. Beneish M-Score of -1.87 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Royal Gold, Inc. present a distinct dichotomy between exceptional profitability and modest capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that ROE is primarily driven by an expansive net margin of 45.2% rather than asset turnover or leverage—which stands at only 1.32x—the underlying return on invested capital remains compressed at just 5.1%. This low spread suggests a lack of significant economic moat relative to the cost of equity, despite high gross margins and robust revenue growth of 43.2% year-over-year. Quality signals are mixed; while the Beneish M-Score of -1.87 indicates low earnings manipulation risk supported by strong Piotroski fundamentals, the F-Score of 4/9 reflects moderate financial health without clear distress or strength indicators.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in continued high growth, yet current multiples exceed historical norms and sector benchmarks. Trading at a P/E ratio of 39.2x compared to a sector average of 36.1x implies that investors are anticipating sustained expansion beyond recent performance levels. A standard DCF framework would likely yield a fair value discount given the modest ROIC-WACC spread, creating tension between current pricing and intrinsic worth based on capital efficiency alone. The premium valuation appears justified only if future margins or turnover rates improve to widen the return profile significantly above its current trajectory.
Risk assessment is further complicated by recent insider activity showing $3,034,203 in net selling over the past 90 days, a delta that often signals caution among management regarding near-term prospects despite strong top-line results. While the low M-Score mitigates fraud concerns and high margins provide a buffer against margin compression, the combination of elevated valuation multiples, stagnant ROIC growth, and insider outflows creates an asymmetric risk profile where downside volatility may outweigh potential upside from revenue expansion.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 34% above its 5-year average P/E of 29.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | $0.4750 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-02 | $0.4750 | +5.6% |
| 2025-10-03 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-03 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-04 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-03 | $0.4500 | +12.5% |
| 2024-10-04 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-05 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-04 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-04 | $0.4000 | +6.7% |
| 2023-10-05 | $0.3750 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-06 | $0.3750 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XME or VAW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell RGLD shares regardless of Royal Gold, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to RGLD through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Royal Gold, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with RGLD. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 19 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
RGLD Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 RGLD shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.4% of the XME (XME) and 1.3% of the VAW (VAW). Across 19 tracked ETFs, approximately 10M shares (11.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest RGLD Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 19 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
RGLD Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Royal Gold, Inc. over the past year sits near $185.22 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $219.58 trades 18.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
RGLD Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Royal Gold, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Royal Gold, Inc. converts -59% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 159% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.1%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 60 | $244.99 | $14,699.4 |
| 2026-05-13 | 64 | $245.35 | $15,702.4 |
| 2026-05-04 | 7 | $230.59 | $1,614.13 |
| 2026-04-30 | 2 | $231.02 | $462.04 |
| 2026-04-23 | 2 | $251.54 | $503.08 |
| 2026-04-20 | 220 | $268.12 | $58,986.4 |
| 2026-04-16 | 3 | $270.00 | $810 |
| 2026-04-15 | 19 | $271.52 | $5,158.88 |
| 2026-04-08 | 180 | $260.84 | $46,951.2 |
| 2026-03-20 | 1,272 | $225.07 | $286,289.04 |
| 2026-03-19 | 228 | $242.52 | $55,294.56 |
| 2026-03-16 | 7,580 | $259.11 | $2.0M |
| 2026-03-11 | 6,155 | $281.69 | $1.7M |
| 2026-03-10 | 23 | $281.86 | $6,482.78 |
| 2026-03-09 | 3,967 | $279.84 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-05 | 1,000 | $281.20 | $281,200 |
| 2026-03-03 | 13,561 | $304.29 | $4.1M |
| 2026-03-02 | 1 | $299.79 | $299.79 |
| 2026-02-27 | 1 | $294.38 | $294.38 |
| 2026-02-19 | 433 | $277.77 | $120,274.41 |
| 2026-02-12 | 1 | $285.22 | $285.22 |
| 2026-02-11 | 8,304 | $283.23 | $2.4M |
| 2026-02-06 | 1,692 | $253.63 | $429,141.96 |
| 2026-02-02 | 679 | $263.31 | $178,787.49 |
| 2026-01-28 | 41,047 | $293.73 | $12.1M |
| 2026-01-27 | 187 | $290.43 | $54,310.41 |
| 2026-01-23 | 1,514 | $287.83 | $435,774.62 |
| 2026-01-22 | 4,297 | $279.54 | $1.2M |
| 2026-01-21 | 24,159 | $277.70 | $6.7M |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,585 | $265.12 | $420,215.2 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| NEM | 0.796 | 0.830 | High co-movement |
| GB00BRXH2664 | 0.792 | 0.830 | High co-movement |
| AU | 0.791 | 0.829 | High co-movement |
| GFI | 0.776 | 0.819 | High co-movement |
| GB00BL6K5J42 | 0.713 | 0.709 | High co-movement |
| HL | 0.682 | 0.750 | Moderate |
| CDE | 0.658 | 0.760 | Moderate |
| GB00B2QPKJ12 | 0.565 | 0.550 | Moderate |
| MXP554091415 | 0.487 | 0.521 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare RGLD to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.