CareDx, Inc. (CDNA)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 3.2. DCF fair value of $7 implies 59% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of CareDx, Inc. reveal a company currently generating negative returns on invested capital at -6.1%, creating a significant spread against its weighted average cost of capital that reaches -26.0%. This inability to deploy capital efficiently is compounded by a net margin contraction to -5.6% and a profitability factor score indicating weak financial strength, despite the firm maintaining robust gross margins near 67.5% and demonstrating top-line expansion with revenue growth of 13.8% year-over-year. While the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggests moderate operational stability and the Beneish M-Score of -3.32 implies low earnings manipulation risk, an Altman Z-Score hovering at 3.2 places the entity in a precarious zone approaching distress territory, highlighting structural challenges that persist despite recent growth momentum.
Valuation metrics suggest the market has priced in aggressive future assumptions that may not align with current cash flow realities. The stock trades at a premium relative to its sector average P/E of 37.5x, yet the discounted cash flow model indicates a fair value of $7, implying nearly -59.4% downside from current levels based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 25.7%. This divergence signals that while investors are betting on sustained high-growth trajectories to justify the valuation multiple, the underlying capital efficiency remains insufficient to support such a premium in the absence of margin expansion or leverage optimization.
Risk-reward dynamics further complicate the investment thesis through distinct factor exposures. The stock exhibits substantial idiosyncratic risk with an annualized Fama-French alpha of 35.97%, suggesting performance driven by factors other than standard market exposure, while simultaneously displaying a -0.350 tilt toward growth over value and a sharp -1.768 drag from the profitability factor. These characteristics indicate that any future appreciation would likely rely on successful margin improvement or capital restructuring rather than organic operational leverage, leaving investors exposed to significant volatility if the company fails to narrow its ROIC-WACC gap in upcoming quarters.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 14% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 17.9% | 19.9% | 21.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $7 | $7 | $6 |
| 3% | $8 | $7 | $6 |
| 4% | $8 | $7 | $6 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $22.07.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=19.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $7 (-59.4%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCareDx, Inc. is currently trading at $19.97 within the healthcare sector, presenting a specific technical snapshot for analysis. Without access to historical price data required to calculate moving averages or Relative Strength Index values, it is impossible to definitively state whether the current price sits above or below key trend lines or if short-term momentum indicators suggest bullish or bearish pressure. The absence of these critical metrics means any assertion regarding the direction of the trend or the strength of recent buying and selling activity would be speculative rather than factual. In a complete technical assessment, one would typically examine if the price action has sustained itself above major moving averages to confirm an uptrend or dipped below them to signal potential weakness. Similarly, the RSI would provide insight into whether the asset is approaching overbought conditions where momentum might stall, or oversold territory indicating possible exhaustion of a downtrend. Since these specific data points are not provided in the current context, no conclusion can be drawn about the immediate trajectory of the stock price or the likelihood of continued movement in either direction based solely on the stated market value and sector classification.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like ARKG or XBI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CDNA shares regardless of CareDx, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $70M of passive capital is structurally linked to CDNA through 3 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on CDNA's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 3 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in CareDx, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If CareDx, Inc. (CDNA) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CDNA. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 3 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CDNA Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 14 CDNA shares, reducing daily market volatility.
CareDx, Inc. (CDNA) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.2% of the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) and 0.4% of the XBI (XBI). Across 3 tracked ETFs, approximately 4M shares (6.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest CDNA Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 3 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CDNA Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for CareDx, Inc. over the past year sits near $14.95 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $22.07 trades 47.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 24 | $21.44 | $514.56 |
| 2026-05-06 | 108 | $20.70 | $2,235.6 |
| 2026-05-04 | 318 | $21.50 | $6,837 |
| 2026-04-21 | 157 | $21.29 | $3,342.53 |
| 2026-04-20 | 769 | $21.42 | $16,471.98 |
| 2026-03-30 | 1,373 | $16.78 | $23,038.94 |
| 2026-02-27 | 117 | $18.82 | $2,201.94 |
| 2026-02-24 | 75 | $18.79 | $1,409.25 |
| 2026-01-26 | 64 | $20.42 | $1,306.88 |
| 2026-01-05 | 25,227 | $19.14 | $482,844.78 |
| 2025-12-19 | 15 | $19.19 | $287.85 |
| 2025-10-14 | 42 | $14.53 | $610.26 |
| 2025-10-03 | 129 | $14.84 | $1,914.36 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| VCYT | 0.442 | 0.631 | Moderate |
| NTRA | 0.413 | 0.468 | Moderate |
| ADPT | 0.394 | 0.618 | Moderate |
| TWST | 0.368 | 0.496 | Moderate |
| BEAM | 0.352 | 0.526 | Moderate |
| PACB | 0.343 | 0.439 | Moderate |
| RXRX | 0.316 | 0.426 | Moderate |
| ILMN | 0.314 | 0.385 | Moderate |
| CRSP | 0.314 | 0.400 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CDNA to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.