TWST (TWST)

$70.15
+3.37%
$4.2B
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
2.23
Beta
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 5/9Altman Z 7.9 SafeBeneish M -2.12 Flag (> −2.22)ROIC−WACC -37.5%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 7.9. Beneish M-Score of -2.12 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The fundamental economics of this entity reveal a stark divergence between top-line expansion and bottom-line destruction. Despite robust revenue growth of 20.3% year-over-year, the company is generating significant losses with a net margin contraction to -20.6%, driving ROIC down to -19.6%. This creates a negative spread of -37.5% relative to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) at 17.9%, indicating value destruction rather than accumulation. The DuPont decomposition highlights that while asset turnover remains healthy at 0.59x and leverage is moderate at 1.36x, the primary driver of returns is severely impaired profitability. Although high gross margins of 50.7% suggest strong pricing power or product differentiation, these benefits are insufficient to cover operating expenses currently. Financial health metrics present a mixed picture; while the Altman Z-Score of 7.9 and Beneish M-Score of -2.12 imply low bankruptcy risk and minimal earnings manipulation respectively, the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 signals moderate financial strength amid deteriorating profitability trends.

Valuation metrics are not provided in the dataset to assess whether current pricing aligns with historical norms or sector peers, nor is there data on DCF fair value or implied growth rates to determine if the market has over- or under-compensated for future cash flows. Consequently, it remains impossible to ascertain from the available information what specific growth assumptions are embedded in today's share price relative to intrinsic value models. The absence of P/E ratios and discount rate inputs prevents a definitive conclusion on whether the stock is trading at a premium or discount compared to its historical range or industry competitors.

Risk factor analysis indicates significant divergence between traditional valuation factors and momentum indicators, creating an ambiguous risk-reward profile. The Fama-French Alpha stands out anomalously high at 35.29% annually, suggesting strong recent price appreciation unexplained by standard market beta, yet this is counterbalanced by a negative Value Factor of -0.344 indicating a growth tilt and a sharply negative Profitability Factor (RMW) of -1.756 reflecting weak earnings quality relative to book equity. Compounding these fundamental headwinds, insider activity over the last 90 days shows net selling totaling $10.3 million, which may signal management concern regarding near-term execution or capital allocation despite the company's aggressive revenue trajectory.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

5/9
Piotroski F-Score
Average — mixed operational signals
7.9
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-2.12
Beneish M-Score
Above threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

50.7%
Gross Margin
-20.6%
Net Margin
-19.6%
ROIC
17.9%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: -37.5%— Negative spread.
+20.3%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+62.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-75.6M
Free Cash Flow

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

-20.6%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.59x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
1.36x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
-16.4%
Return on Equity
Balanced ROE composition across margins, turnover, and leverage.

Balance Sheet Health

0.36x
Debt / Equity
3.64x
Current Ratio
-2.69%
FCF Yield
-111.4M
EBITDA

Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)

Net Insider Flow
-$10M
Net Selling
0
Buy Transactions
30
Sale Transactions
2026-03-20GREEN PAULASold 5/5 qtrsSale$13,005
2026-03-20CHO DENNISSold 5/5 qtrsSale$15,500
2026-03-20LEPROUST EMILY MSold 5/5 qtrsSale$76,276
2026-03-17CHESS ROBERT BRUCESold 1/5 qtrsSale$470,000
2026-03-17CHESS ROBERT BRUCESold 1/5 qtrsGrant$118,900

Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✗ Miss
Est: $-0.56
Act: $-0.66
-17.4%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $-0.57
Act: $-0.47
+18.1%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $-0.50
Act: $-0.45
+10.0%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $-0.52
Act: $-0.50
+3.8%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Risk Profile

76.0%
Annual Volatility
0.59
Sharpe (1Y)
0.90
Sharpe (3Y)
-59.0%
Max Drawdown (3Y)
-91.9%
Max Drawdown (5Y)

Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure

Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.

1.53
Market β
Mkt-RF
+1.731
Size (SMB)
Small-cap tilt
-0.344
Value (HML)
Growth tilt
-1.756
Profit (RMW)
Weak
-0.112
Invest (CMA)
Aggressive
Alpha (annual): +35.29%
R²: 39.8%of variance explained by 5 factors

Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.

Fundamentals

-32.6
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
9.13
Price/Book
1M
Avg Volume
$71.04
52W High
$23.30
52W Low
98%
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$446M
Tracked Passive Exposure
6
ETFs Holding TWST
0.50%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$88B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like ARKG or ARKK, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell TWST shares regardless of TWST's individual fundamentals. We estimate $446M of passive capital is structurally linked to TWST through 6 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on TWST's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 6 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in TWST to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

TWST Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
TWSTEpicenterVBKETFVHTETFVTWOETFCRSPLow RiskTEMHigh RiskTSLALow RiskBEAMLow RiskTXGLow Risk
TWST Price Drop (%)0

If TWST (TWST) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AG (CRSP) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with TWST. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 6 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

TWST Ownership Dynamics

Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 TWST shares, reducing daily market volatility.

Ticker
TWST
Total Shares
62M
ETF Lock-Up
12.8%
Display Mode
Total Float Impact
12.8%Locked Float

TWST (TWST) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 8.5% of the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) and 2.7% of the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). Across 6 tracked ETFs, approximately 8M shares (12.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.

Float lock-up computed from 6 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

TWST Institutional Volume Profile

252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.

TICKER
TWST
PRICE
$70.15
FLOOR (POC)
$31.66
STRENGTH
High
$24$2714%$2911%$32POC 17%$348%$367%$39$41$44$46$487%$51$53$56$58$60$63$65$67$70$70.15
Focus Zone
Point of Control (POC) Support (below price) Resistance (above price) Current Price

The highest-volume price zone for TWST over the past year sits near $31.66 (17% of 252-day volume). The current price of $70.15 trades 121.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (17% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.

Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-04-27388$60.94$23,644.72
2026-04-2465$58.85$3,825.25
2026-04-22512$62.61$32,056.32
2026-04-211,377$61.88$85,208.76
2026-04-20159$59.81$9,509.79
2026-04-0619,702$50.21$989,237.42
2026-04-01180$47.52$8,553.6
2026-03-26928$48.64$45,137.92
2026-03-241,161$44.50$51,664.5
2026-03-23366$42.07$15,397.62
2026-03-20623$44.80$27,910.4
2026-03-1815,212$47.28$719,223.36
2026-03-174,900$45.01$220,549
2026-03-1111,626$45.40$527,820.4
2026-02-26430$49.58$21,319.4
2026-02-23371,330$48.59$18.0M
2026-02-13571$47.66$27,213.86
2026-02-12400$49.64$19,856
2026-02-1129,526$49.06$1.4M
2026-02-10380$47.47$18,038.6
2026-02-092,345$49.24$115,467.8
2026-02-06446$47.10$21,006.6
2026-02-0526,534$48.12$1.3M
2026-02-04408$46.32$18,898.56
2026-02-03963$46.81$45,078.03
2026-02-021,953$41.07$80,209.71
2026-01-264,620$42.94$198,382.8
2026-01-233,143$45.15$141,906.45
2026-01-2212,318$43.65$537,680.7
2026-01-2115,484$41.65$644,908.6

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Price Correlations

Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.

Peer252-Day (1Y)126-Day (6M)Direction
WTGXXNaNNaN
RXRX0.5370.569Moderate
TXG0.5220.486Moderate
NDSN0.5130.531Moderate
A0.5080.521Moderate
MTD0.4900.414Moderate
CRSP0.4760.492Moderate
PSNL0.4710.492Moderate
BEAM0.4670.481Moderate
TEM0.4580.489Moderate

Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.

Compare TWST to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.