GSAT (GSAT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 1.9. DCF fair value of $29 implies 60% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency for GSAT is critically impaired, evidenced by a substantial negative spread between its 0.5% return on invested capital and the 13.3% weighted average cost of capital, indicating value destruction relative to financing costs. Despite this fundamental drag, equity returns are supported primarily by high leverage rather than operational profitability or asset turnover; the DuPont decomposition reveals that while gross margins remain robust at 64.8%, net margins have contracted to -3.2%, suppressing overall return on equity. Financial health metrics present a mixed signal: the Altman Z-Score of 1.9 flags potential distress and bankruptcy risk, yet the Beneish M-Score of -4.01 suggests management earnings are likely not being manipulated downward, while the low Piotroski F-score of 4/9 indicates moderate financial strength with limited improving fundamentals compared to peers.
Valuation models reflect these operational challenges through a stark divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value estimates derived from discounted cash flow analysis. With revenue growing at a modest 9% year-over-year, the DCF framework assigns a fair value significantly below current levels, implying that the stock is trading with approximately -60.5% downside relative to its calculated worth under an assumed long-term free cash flow growth rate of 11.9%. This deep discount suggests the market has priced in severe concerns regarding future profitability and capital efficiency, potentially anticipating a prolonged period where operating expenses continue to erode margins despite top-line expansion.
The risk-reward profile is skewed heavily toward downside volatility given the negative ROIC-WACC spread and proximity to bankruptcy territory indicated by the Altman score. While the low Beneish M-Score provides some assurance regarding earnings integrity, it does not mitigate the structural inability of the firm to generate returns above its cost of capital. Investors must weigh the possibility that current valuation extremes could eventually correct if leverage is reduced or margins expand against the persistent threat of financial distress inherent in a business model currently destroying shareholder value at an accelerated rate relative to its funding costs.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 9% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 11.3% | 13.3% | 15.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $33 | $27 | $23 |
| 3% | $35 | $29 | $24 |
| 4% | $39 | $31 | $26 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $82.64.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=13.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $29 (-60.5%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current trading price of GSAT at $82.71 lacks sufficient context regarding its relationship to key moving averages, which are essential for determining whether the asset is operating within an uptrend or a downtrend. Without knowing if this level sits above or below critical short-term and long-term benchmarks, it remains unclear if momentum is building in favor of buyers or sellers. Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) data required to gauge short-term velocity and potential overbought or oversold conditions has not been provided in the available information. Consequently, a definitive assessment of immediate directional pressure cannot be formed based solely on the listed current price figure. Technical analysis typically relies on comparing real-time values against historical averages and oscillators to identify patterns; however, those comparative metrics are currently missing from this snapshot. Observers must await further data regarding moving average crossovers or RSI readings to ascertain if the stock is exhibiting signs of sustained strength or weakness relative to its recent history. In isolation, a single price point offers limited insight into market sentiment or trend direction without corroborating indicators showing how that price has evolved recently against dynamic support and resistance levels. The absence of these contextual elements prevents any conclusion about whether momentum is accelerating, decelerating, or potentially reversing at this specific moment in time.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XTL or VOX, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell GSAT shares regardless of GSAT's individual fundamentals. We estimate $98M of passive capital is structurally linked to GSAT through 5 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on GSAT's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 5 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in GSAT to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If GSAT (GSAT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Facebook Inc. Class A (META) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with GSAT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 5 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
GSAT Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 84 GSAT shares, reducing daily market volatility.
GSAT (GSAT) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.0% of the XTL (XTL) and 0.3% of the VOX (VOX). Across 5 tracked ETFs, approximately 2M shares (1.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest GSAT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 5 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
GSAT Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for GSAT over the past year sits near $79.69 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $82.64 trades 3.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
GSAT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does GSAT convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
GSAT converts 503% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-12.7%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 18,016 | $82.33 | $1.5M |
| 2026-05-13 | 1,743 | $82.67 | $144,093.81 |
| 2026-05-11 | 109 | $82.09 | $8,947.81 |
| 2026-05-06 | 43 | $81.87 | $3,520.41 |
| 2026-05-04 | 34 | $81.70 | $2,777.8 |
| 2026-05-01 | 134 | $82.30 | $11,028.2 |
| 2026-04-28 | 20 | $81.90 | $1,638 |
| 2026-04-23 | 485 | $81.34 | $39,449.9 |
| 2026-04-21 | 73 | $80.36 | $5,866.28 |
| 2026-04-20 | 1,200 | $80.02 | $96,024 |
| 2026-04-15 | 13,847 | $79.91 | $1.1M |
| 2026-04-14 | 1 | $72.89 | $72.89 |
| 2026-04-10 | 4,336 | $73.13 | $317,091.68 |
| 2026-04-08 | 22,829 | $73.85 | $1.7M |
| 2026-04-07 | 88,453 | $72.66 | $6.4M |
| 2026-04-06 | 10,930 | $77.73 | $849,588.9 |
| 2026-04-01 | 22,771 | $66.42 | $1.5M |
| 2026-03-27 | 297 | $60.28 | $17,903.16 |
| 2026-03-26 | 20,668 | $67.38 | $1.4M |
| 2026-03-18 | 447 | $60.78 | $27,168.66 |
| 2026-03-16 | 55 | $58.68 | $3,227.4 |
| 2026-03-10 | 5,477 | $56.66 | $310,326.82 |
| 2026-03-05 | 457 | $61.30 | $28,014.1 |
| 2026-02-19 | 594 | $59.01 | $35,051.94 |
| 2026-02-09 | 57 | $57.65 | $3,286.05 |
| 2026-02-03 | 15 | $60.78 | $911.7 |
| 2026-01-26 | 3 | $64.97 | $194.91 |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,185 | $60.16 | $71,289.6 |
| 2026-01-14 | 167 | $64.30 | $10,738.1 |
| 2026-01-13 | 10 | $63.80 | $638 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| VSAT | 0.455 | 0.602 | Moderate |
| RKLB | 0.402 | 0.427 | Moderate |
| ASTS | 0.390 | 0.441 | Moderate |
| IRDM | 0.380 | 0.550 | Moderate |
| VIAV | 0.367 | 0.448 | Moderate |
| FN | 0.351 | 0.386 | Moderate |
| CIEN | 0.347 | 0.467 | Moderate |
| ACHR | 0.344 | 0.427 | Moderate |
| HOOD | 0.339 | 0.327 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare GSAT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.