HXL (HXL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 4.9. DCF fair value of $35 implies 58% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency for HXL appears structurally challenged, evidenced by a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -4.6%, indicating the firm is currently destroying value relative to its cost of equity. This economic drag persists despite a robust Beneish M-Score of -2.53 that suggests low earnings manipulation risk and an Altman Z-Score of 4.9 signaling moderate bankruptcy safety, while the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 reflects middling financial strength without significant distress signals. The DuPont components reveal a company relying on thin net margins of 5.8% against gross margins of 23.0%, yet revenue growth has contracted slightly to -0.5%, creating a scenario where top-line stagnation undermines the already compressed return profile.
Valuation metrics present a complex picture where the current P/E ratio of 64.8x trades just below its five-year average of 67.4x, suggesting the market is not aggressively repricing for recent performance but remains at historically elevated levels relative to earnings power. However, this multiple expansion appears disconnected from intrinsic value calculations; a DCF model implies a fair value significantly lower than current prices, resulting in an implied downside of -58.4%. Such a wide divergence between the trading price and discounted cash flow estimates suggests the market is pricing in aggressive future free cash flow growth averaging 24% over ten years, a trajectory that may be difficult to sustain given the negative spread on capital investments and flat revenue trends.
The risk-reward asymmetry here is pronounced, as the stock carries inherent risks of continued value destruction due to its inability to generate returns exceeding the cost of capital, even while maintaining clean earnings quality indicators. Investors must weigh whether the current valuation premium reflects a belief in an upcoming operational turnaround or if it represents a significant overvaluation relative to fundamental economic realities and projected cash flows.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -0% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.3% | 10.3% | 12.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $44 | $31 | $22 |
| 3% | $53 | $35 | $25 |
| 4% | $65 | $41 | $28 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $88.04.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $35 (-58.4%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedHXL is currently trading at $84.76, a price point that sits within the bounds of its standard deviation envelope relative to the Simple Moving Average. This positioning suggests the asset has not yet experienced an extreme divergence from its recent mean trend, indicating a lack of immediate overbought or oversold pressure based solely on this metric. The proximity to the central moving average line implies that price action may be oscillating around equilibrium rather than trending aggressively in one direction, which often characterizes periods where values are likely to revert toward the historical norm if they move too far away. From a relative-value perspective, the current level does not exhibit the sharp detachment from the mean typically associated with high-probability reversal zones or breakout candidates. Instead, the setup reflects a state of consolidation near the statistical average, meaning there is no clear signal that the price will immediately snap back to the center after moving further out, nor does it suggest an imminent continuation of a strong directional move driven by momentum extremes. Traders observing this configuration might note that the market is currently finding its footing within normal volatility parameters rather than reacting to significant external shocks or internal structural shifts in demand and supply dynamics.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-09 | $0.1800 | +5.9% |
| 2025-11-03 | $0.1700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-08 | $0.1700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-02 | $0.1700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-07 | $0.1700 | +13.3% |
| 2024-11-01 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-02 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-02 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-08 | $0.1500 | +20.0% |
| 2023-11-02 | $0.1250 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-03 | $0.1250 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XAR or MDYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell HXL shares regardless of HXL's individual fundamentals. We estimate $591M of passive capital is structurally linked to HXL through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on HXL's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in HXL to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If HXL (HXL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CURTISS WRIGHT CORP (CW) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with HXL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 13 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
HXL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 11 HXL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
HXL (HXL) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.2% of the XAR (XAR) and 0.4% of the MDYG (MDYG). Across 13 tracked ETFs, approximately 7M shares (9.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest HXL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 13 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
HXL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for HXL over the past year sits near $62.07 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $88.04 trades 41.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
HXL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does HXL convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
HXL converts 53% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-4.6%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 1,536 | $92.45 | $142,003.2 |
| 2026-05-06 | 117 | $92.86 | $10,864.62 |
| 2026-05-04 | 697 | $92.23 | $64,284.31 |
| 2026-04-30 | 115 | $90.54 | $10,412.1 |
| 2026-04-29 | 3,946 | $93.06 | $367,214.76 |
| 2026-04-28 | 3,940 | $92.30 | $363,662 |
| 2026-04-24 | 656 | $91.32 | $59,905.92 |
| 2026-04-20 | 14,394 | $88.76 | $1.3M |
| 2026-04-16 | 27 | $83.29 | $2,248.83 |
| 2026-04-15 | 18,416 | $84.98 | $1.6M |
| 2026-04-10 | 4,506 | $84.41 | $380,351.46 |
| 2026-03-23 | 100 | $78.81 | $7,881 |
| 2026-03-20 | 234 | $78.66 | $18,406.44 |
| 2026-03-16 | 2 | $79.09 | $158.18 |
| 2026-03-06 | 8,161 | $89.23 | $728,206.03 |
| 2026-03-02 | 12,487 | $92.69 | $1.2M |
| 2026-02-27 | 13,664 | $93.80 | $1.3M |
| 2026-02-26 | 18,560 | $92.74 | $1.7M |
| 2026-02-25 | 24,949 | $92.43 | $2.3M |
| 2026-02-20 | 12 | $87.19 | $1,046.28 |
| 2026-02-17 | 37,892 | $89.79 | $3.4M |
| 2026-02-13 | 93,275 | $88.95 | $8.3M |
| 2026-02-03 | 284 | $81.59 | $23,171.56 |
| 2026-01-21 | 113,352 | $81.27 | $9.2M |
| 2026-01-20 | 89 | $82.59 | $7,350.51 |
| 2026-01-13 | 70 | $82.13 | $5,749.1 |
| 2025-12-22 | 62,520 | $74.53 | $4.7M |
| 2025-12-18 | 21,267 | $72.66 | $1.5M |
| 2025-12-16 | 6 | $73.70 | $442.2 |
| 2025-12-15 | 1,203 | $73.05 | $87,879.15 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CRS | 0.509 | 0.578 | Moderate |
| PH | 0.489 | 0.520 | Moderate |
| ATI | 0.487 | 0.554 | Moderate |
| NDSN | 0.472 | 0.430 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.467 | 0.448 | Moderate |
| WWD | 0.463 | 0.451 | Moderate |
| VLY | 0.460 | 0.458 | Moderate |
| FERG | 0.456 | 0.480 | Moderate |
| DOV | 0.451 | 0.408 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare HXL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.