INE002A01018 (INE002A01018)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 2.2. DCF fair value of $1509 suggests 15% upside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics reveal a capital allocation challenge where the company's return on invested capital of 6.8% falls short of its weighted average cost of capital at 7.5%, resulting in a negative spread that erodes intrinsic value over time. This operational inefficiency is compounded by a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating moderate financial strength with potential balance sheet or income statement weaknesses, while the Altman Z-Score of 2.2 places the entity in the grey zone between safety and distress. Although profitability metrics remain resilient with net margins at 7.2% and gross margins holding steady at 25.1%, revenue expansion is modest at 7.1% year-over-yo, suggesting limited organic momentum to offset capital costs. The DuPont components are not explicitly broken down here, but the negative ROIC-WACC spread implies that leverage or asset turnover may be insufficient to drive returns above the cost of equity and debt combined.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in a slight discount relative to historical norms, with the current P/E multiple at 22.0x trading approximately 8% below its five-year average of 23.8x. Despite this compression compared to recent history, the stock still commands a premium over sector peers if implied growth rates are taken as given; however, the DCF model implies fair value at $1509 with only an 11.8% upside potential based on assumed free cash flow growth of 13.0% over ten years. This narrow margin for appreciation indicates that current pricing already incorporates optimistic long-term assumptions, leaving little room for error if actual execution deviates from the modeled trajectory.
Risk-adjusted performance data presents a mixed picture regarding factor exposure and alpha generation. The annualized Fama-French Alpha of 0.33% suggests marginal outperformance relative to risk factors after adjusting for market beta, size, value, and profitability exposures. Specifically, the portfolio exhibits a positive tilt toward the Value factor (HML) at 0.168, yet it suffers from a negative exposure to the Profitability factor (RMW) at -0.058, which aligns with the observed ROIC-WACC spread issues. These factor deltas highlight that while the stock may offer value characteristics, its underlying profitability mechanics are dragging on risk-adjusted returns, creating an asymmetric profile where downside risks related to capital efficiency could outweigh the modest valuation buffer provided by the current P/E compression.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 7% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.5% | 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $1805 | $1249 | $866 |
| 3% | $2382 | $1509 | $989 |
| 4% | $3535 | $1916 | $1157 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $1314.60.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $1509 (+14.7%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current valuation of $1349.60 represents a significant premium, yet without historical price context or volatility metrics, the structural integrity of this momentum level remains indeterminate. This singular data point isolates market sentiment at a specific moment but fails to reveal whether such pricing is supported by sustained demand or susceptible to sharp corrections if broader liquidity conditions tighten. In the absence of drawdown history or standard deviation figures, it is impossible to assess how fragile the current price discovery process might be against potential shock events. The fundamental backdrop required to validate this elevated level is entirely missing from the provided dataset, creating a knowledge gap regarding the drivers sustaining such high valuations. Without understanding earnings trajectories, sector tailwinds, or macroeconomic headwinds associated with this instrument, one cannot distinguish between genuine growth appreciation and speculative overextension. The technical picture presented by a single price figure lacks the temporal depth needed to evaluate risk-reward asymmetries or identify potential inflection points where momentum might reverse. Consequently, any assessment of future performance relies on assumptions that are not supported by the available evidence. While the market has priced this asset at $1349.60, the lack of comparative data prevents a definitive conclusion regarding its stability or attractiveness relative to historical norms. Investors must weigh whether this price level reflects a new equilibrium or merely a temporary peak before exposure levels increase, acknowledging that significant downside risk cannot be quantified without additional volatility and trend data.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-14 | $5.5000 | +10.0% |
| 2024-08-19 | $5.0000 | +11.1% |
| 2023-08-21 | $4.5000 | +12.5% |
| 2022-08-18 | $4.0000 | +14.3% |
| 2021-06-11 | $3.5000 | +7.7% |
| 2020-07-02 | $3.2500 | +0.9% |
| 2019-08-02 | $3.2195 | +8.3% |
| 2018-06-27 | $2.9718 | +9.1% |
| 2017-07-13 | $2.7242 | +4.8% |
| 2016-03-17 | $2.6004 | +5.0% |
| 2015-05-08 | $2.4765 | +5.3% |
| 2014-05-16 | $2.3527 | +5.6% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like EMXC or SCHE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell INE002A01018 shares regardless of INE002A01018's individual fundamentals. We estimate $640M of passive capital is structurally linked to INE002A01018 through 5 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on INE002A01018's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 5 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in INE002A01018 to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If INE002A01018 (INE002A01018) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TW0002330008) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with INE002A01018. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 5 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
INE002A01018 Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 294 INE002A01018 shares, reducing daily market volatility.
INE002A01018 (INE002A01018) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.0% of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (EMXC) and 1.0% of the SCHE (SCHE). Across 5 tracked ETFs, approximately 46M shares (0.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest INE002A01018 Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 5 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
INE002A01018 Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for INE002A01018 over the past year sits near $1378.49 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $1314.60 sits 4.6% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
INE002A01018 Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does INE002A01018 convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
INE002A01018 converts 21% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 79% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-0.8%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| INE040A01034 | 0.434 | 0.412 | Moderate |
| KYG875721634 | 0.240 | 0.173 | Low correlation |
| KR7000660001 | 0.213 | 0.267 | Low correlation |
| WYNN | 0.213 | 0.160 | Low correlation |
| PPG | 0.209 | 0.224 | Low correlation |
| AIG | 0.208 | 0.183 | Low correlation |
| BKNG | 0.205 | 0.252 | Low correlation |
| JP3802400006 | 0.201 | 0.263 | Low correlation |
| ALNY | 0.199 | 0.160 | Low correlation |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare INE002A01018 to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.