Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 22.1x earnings — a 37% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — BKNG is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 6.5. DCF fair value of $108 implies 39% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Booking Holdings Inc. present a stark dichotomy between operational efficiency and capital structure mechanics. While the company generates robust cash flows evidenced by a 53.1% ROIC significantly outpacing its weighted average cost of capital by 41.7 percentage points, this value is obscured by an aggressive use of leverage that drives the Equity Multiplier to -5.25x. This structural inversion results in a negative DuPont ROE of -96.9%, despite healthy net margins of 20.1% and steady revenue growth of 13.4%. The Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggests moderate financial strength, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 6.4 indicating a low probability of bankruptcy, yet the negative equity base distorts traditional return metrics.
Valuation metrics reflect extreme market pricing relative to historical norms and sector peers. Trading at a current P/E ratio of 632.6x compared to a sector average of 57.0x, the stock commands a premium that appears disconnected from its discounted cash flow model, which implies significant downside with a -37.1% gap between market price and fair value of $2,647. This disconnect suggests the market is pricing in exceptionally high long-term free cash flow growth assumptions; however, if actual performance deviates from an implied 10-year FCF growth rate of 15.6%, current valuations face substantial compression risk.
Risk-adjusted return factors further complicate the investment thesis. The stock exhibits a negative annualized Fama-French Alpha of -26.11%, indicating underperformance relative to its factor benchmarks over time, although it retains exposure to value and profitability tilts with HML scores near 0.15 and RMW at 0.141. Compounding these technical signals is notable insider activity, characterized by $12.8 million in net selling over the past ninety days, which may signal reduced confidence from management regarding current valuation levels or future liquidity needs.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 13% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.3% | 11.3% | 13.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $128 | $99 | $80 |
| 3% | $144 | $108 | $86 |
| 4% | $166 | $119 | $93 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $167.21.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $108 (-39.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 51% below its 5-year average P/E of 52.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedBooking Holdings Inc. is currently trading at $154.13, a position that requires contextual analysis against its moving average envelope to gauge relative value and potential mean-reversion dynamics. Without specific upper or lower band boundaries defined in the provided dataset, it remains unclear whether this price point represents an overbought extension above the trend line or an oversold dip below it. In technical frameworks where price deviates significantly from a simple moving average, such divergence often signals heightened volatility and creates conditions ripe for a pullback toward the mean if momentum exhausts itself. Conversely, proximity to the central line might suggest consolidation rather than an imminent reversal. The absence of additional metrics like RSI readings or exact SMA values limits the ability to definitively characterize the current state as either stretched or balanced. If the stock has recently surged well above its historical average range, the statistical probability increases for a corrective move downward toward equilibrium, assuming no fundamental shifts alter the trend. Alternatively, if the price hovers near the lower boundary of such an envelope, it could indicate support levels where buyers might step in to prevent further decline. The current level sits within a vacuum of comparative data regarding its recent range, meaning any interpretation of mean-reversion potential relies entirely on assumptions about how far this figure lies from the calculated central tendency over the chosen time period.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | $0.4200 | +9.4% |
| 2025-12-05 | $0.3840 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-05 | $0.3840 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-06 | $0.3840 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-07 | $0.3840 | +9.7% |
| 2024-12-06 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-06 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-07 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-07 | $0.3500 | — |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like FDN or XLY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell BKNG shares regardless of Booking Holdings Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $19.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to BKNG through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Booking Holdings Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with BKNG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
BKNG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 10 BKNG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.1% of the FDN (FDN) and 2.9% of the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 76M shares (9.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest BKNG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
BKNG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Booking Holdings Inc. over the past year sits near $291.51 (83% of 252-day volume). The current price of $167.21 sits 42.6% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (83% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
BKNG Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Booking Holdings Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Booking Holdings Inc. converts 99% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 41.8% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 780 | $155.03 | $120,923.4 |
| 2026-05-12 | 20 | $157.80 | $3,156 |
| 2026-05-11 | 553,805 | $165.93 | $91.9M |
| 2026-05-06 | 3 | $167.63 | $502.89 |
| 2026-05-04 | 80 | $169.63 | $13,570.4 |
| 2026-05-01 | 42 | $168.36 | $7,071.12 |
| 2026-04-30 | 20 | $173.98 | $3,479.6 |
| 2026-04-28 | 20 | $177.52 | $3,550.4 |
| 2026-04-27 | 17,008 | $180.25 | $3.1M |
| 2026-04-24 | 3,368 | $176.75 | $595,294 |
| 2026-04-23 | 2,808 | $179.40 | $503,755.2 |
| 2026-04-20 | 2,520 | $192.01 | $483,865.2 |
| 2026-04-17 | 155 | $184.56 | $28,606.8 |
| 2026-04-16 | 4 | $185.69 | $742.76 |
| 2026-04-15 | 34 | $181.12 | $6,158.08 |
| 2026-04-14 | 820 | $177.25 | $145,345 |
| 2026-04-13 | 10,286 | $173.46 | $1.8M |
| 2026-04-09 | 9,105 | $181.00 | $1.6M |
| 2026-04-08 | 184,498 | $173.41 | $32.0M |
| 2026-04-07 | 428,950 | $176.19 | $75.6M |
| 2026-04-06 | 380 | $4194.31 | $1.6M |
| 2026-03-25 | 3 | $4290.65 | $12,871.95 |
| 2026-03-23 | 700 | $4324.04 | $3.0M |
| 2026-03-20 | 39 | $4294.29 | $167,477.31 |
| 2026-03-16 | 5,937 | $4241.26 | $25.2M |
| 2026-03-13 | 100 | $4217.71 | $421,771 |
| 2026-03-09 | 1 | $4550.43 | $4,550.43 |
| 2026-03-04 | 56 | $4153.87 | $232,616.72 |
| 2026-03-02 | 2 | $4239.35 | $8,478.7 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2 | $4163.00 | $8,326 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MMC | 0.360 | 0.282 | Moderate |
| IVZ | 0.263 | 0.309 | Low correlation |
| INE002A01018 | 0.205 | 0.252 | Low correlation |
| TKO | 0.172 | 0.203 | Low correlation |
| CTAS | 0.169 | 0.186 | Low correlation |
| INTU | 0.169 | 0.152 | Low correlation |
| CRM | 0.164 | 0.149 | Low correlation |
| WDAY | 0.158 | 0.151 | Low correlation |
| TROW | 0.157 | 0.157 | Low correlation |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare BKNG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.