DoorDash, Inc. (DASH)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicDASH trades at 75.9x earnings — a 117% premium to its sector average of 35.0x — without a dominant ROIC-WACC spread. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 4.8. DCF fair value of $78 implies 51% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company's capital allocation efficiency is severely compromised, evidenced by a substantial negative spread of -11.7% between its 4.2% ROIC and 15.9% WACC, indicating that the firm destroys value relative to its cost of capital. Despite this structural inefficiency, earnings per share are supported primarily by leverage rather than operational excellence; the DuPont decomposition reveals an equity multiplier of 1.96x driving a 9.3% ROE alongside modest margins and turnover. While financial distress metrics appear manageable with an Altman Z-Score of 4.9 and clean accounting signals from a Beneish M-Score of -2.27, the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggests only moderate fundamental strength without clear momentum or improvement trends.
Valuation reflects aggressive growth expectations that are not fully supported by intrinsic value models. The current P/E ratio of 73.5x sits at a premium relative to historical norms and sector peers, pricing in an implied free cash flow compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.1% over the next decade. However, a DCF analysis suggests a fair value of $79, implying approximately -47.3% downside from current levels if those high-growth assumptions do not materialize. This disconnect highlights significant valuation risk where the market's premium is contingent on sustained execution that contradicts the underlying negative ROIC-WACC spread.
Risk-adjusted performance metrics present a mixed picture of momentum versus fundamental deterioration. Although the stock exhibits strong Fama-French alpha of 20.72% annually, this outperformance coincides with negative exposures to both value (-0.192 HML) and profitability factors (-0.891 RMW), signaling that returns are driven by growth beta rather than quality characteristics. Furthermore, recent insider activity shows $59,6 million in net selling over the last 90 days, which often precedes or accompanies periods of elevated valuation risk. The convergence of high valuations, negative capital efficiency, and significant insider outflows warrants careful scrutiny regarding future sustainability.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 28% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 14.1% | 16.1% | 18.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $88 | $74 | $64 |
| 3% | $94 | $78 | $67 |
| 4% | $101 | $83 | $70 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $156.95.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=16.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $78 (-50.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 14% above its 5-year average P/E of 62.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedDoorDash operates within the consumer cyclical sector, a domain historically sensitive to discretionary spending shifts and broader economic cycles. The current price level of $162.67 sits at a specific juncture where recent market volatility could significantly influence risk dynamics for this growth-oriented entity. In such environments, technical setups often reveal whether observed momentum stems from sustained structural demand or fragile sentiment driven by short-term liquidity flows. Without corroborating fundamental data regarding revenue stability or margin expansion, the resilience of any upward price movement remains contingent on how external macroeconomic pressures impact consumer behavior in the delivery and logistics space. The interplay between price action and inherent volatility suggests that current trends may be susceptible to sharp corrections if underlying fundamentals do not support further valuation multiples. For high-beta stocks like those in the consumer cyclical sector, even moderate drawdowns can trigger disproportionate sell-offs as leverage unwinds or risk aversion increases among institutional participants. Consequently, the technical picture indicates a delicate balance where price appreciation relies heavily on continued positive sentiment rather than deep-rooted earnings certainty. Market participants must weigh whether the current trajectory represents a genuine inflection point in demand recovery or merely a temporary liquidity-driven spike that could reverse rapidly upon any negative catalyst related to operational execution or competitive landscape changes.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like ARKF or VOT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell DASH shares regardless of DoorDash, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $10.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to DASH through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in DoorDash, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If DoorDash, Inc. (DASH) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with DASH. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
DASH Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 DASH shares, reducing daily market volatility.
DoorDash, Inc. (DASH) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.6% of the ARKF (ARKF) and 1.4% of the VOT (VOT). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 63M shares (15.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest DASH Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
DASH Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for DoorDash, Inc. over the past year sits near $161.07 (8% of 252-day volume). The current price of $156.95 sits 2.6% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
DASH Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does DoorDash, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
DoorDash, Inc. converts 124% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-11.8%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 264 | $171.35 | $45,236.4 |
| 2026-05-07 | 2 | $167.97 | $335.94 |
| 2026-05-05 | 2 | $172.57 | $345.14 |
| 2026-05-01 | 30 | $168.65 | $5,059.5 |
| 2026-04-30 | 1,700 | $169.33 | $287,861 |
| 2026-04-29 | 10,647 | $171.97 | $1.8M |
| 2026-04-27 | 33,020 | $176.78 | $5.8M |
| 2026-04-24 | 1,492 | $177.00 | $264,084 |
| 2026-04-23 | 2 | $182.27 | $364.54 |
| 2026-04-22 | 201,815 | $182.45 | $36.8M |
| 2026-04-21 | 1,338 | $189.80 | $253,952.4 |
| 2026-04-20 | 100 | $183.89 | $18,389 |
| 2026-04-16 | 94 | $179.94 | $16,914.36 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $163.55 | $490.65 |
| 2026-04-14 | 335 | $159.61 | $53,469.35 |
| 2026-04-13 | 500 | $152.58 | $76,290 |
| 2026-04-01 | 1 | $150.15 | $150.15 |
| 2026-03-31 | 276 | $148.01 | $40,850.76 |
| 2026-03-30 | 2,930 | $146.60 | $429,538 |
| 2026-03-25 | 37 | $154.73 | $5,725.01 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6,628 | $156.64 | $1.0M |
| 2026-03-19 | 2,114 | $164.99 | $348,788.86 |
| 2026-03-17 | 105,989 | $167.78 | $17.8M |
| 2026-03-10 | 56 | $176.59 | $9,889.04 |
| 2026-03-05 | 1 | $177.75 | $177.75 |
| 2026-03-04 | 229 | $175.46 | $40,180.34 |
| 2026-02-20 | 207 | $176.19 | $36,471.33 |
| 2026-02-12 | 264 | $175.47 | $46,324.08 |
| 2026-02-11 | 2 | $185.64 | $371.28 |
| 2026-02-03 | 3,597 | $207.67 | $746,988.99 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| PLTR | 0.480 | 0.481 | Moderate |
| UBER | 0.461 | 0.408 | Moderate |
| TOST | 0.454 | 0.475 | Moderate |
| HOOD | 0.450 | 0.478 | Moderate |
| SHOP | 0.439 | 0.495 | Moderate |
| J | 0.430 | 0.450 | Moderate |
| APP | 0.427 | 0.443 | Moderate |
| RXO | 0.422 | 0.460 | Moderate |
| AXON | 0.419 | 0.414 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare DASH to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.