Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 26.8x earnings — a 59% discount to the sector average of 65.0x — MSFT is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 7.8. DCF fair value of $121 implies 69% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedMicrosoft Corporation's fundamental quality is robust, as evidenced by a significant ROIC-WACC spread of +9.4%, indicating that the company generates returns well above its cost of capital. The DuPont analysis reveals strong profitability through high net margins (36.1%) and moderate asset turnover (0.46x), while leverage contributes to amplifying return on equity (ROE) at 29.6%. This financial structure is further supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, suggesting operational stability with some signs of potential weakness, alongside an Altman Z-Score of 8.2 and a Beneish M-Score indicating low likelihood of earnings manipulation (-2.57). These metrics collectively paint a picture of a well-managed company that effectively balances profitability and leverage.
In terms of valuation, Microsoft trades at a current P/E ratio of 23.4x, which is notably lower than the sector average (42.2x) but close to its five-year historical average (25.0x). The discounted cash flow analysis suggests a fair value of $123 per share, implying an upside potential that does not match current market expectations given the stock's price and implied future growth rate of 19.1%. This discrepancy could be due to factors such as cyclical headwinds or investor skepticism about sustaining high-growth rates over time. Additionally, Fama-French analysis reveals a negative alpha (-6.85%), indicating underperformance relative to market expectations, while insider activity shows significant net selling by insiders in the past 90 days ($3,058,893), potentially signaling internal concerns about near-term prospects or valuation.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 15% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.5% | 11.5% | 13.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $142 | $111 | $92 |
| 3% | $158 | $121 | $97 |
| 4% | $181 | $133 | $105 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $441.31.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $121 (-68.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 10% below its 5-year average P/E of 25.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedMicrosoft's stock is currently trading below its 50-day moving average but above its longer-term 200-day moving average, suggesting it may be in a period of consolidation or potential near-term weakness within an ongoing broader uptrend. With the RSI at 44.6, the security appears to be approaching oversold territory, indicating possible short-term support and reduced downside pressure relative to recent price action.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | $0.9100 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-19 | $0.9100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-20 | $0.9100 | +9.6% |
| 2025-08-21 | $0.8300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-15 | $0.8300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-20 | $0.8300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-21 | $0.8300 | +10.7% |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-15 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-14 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-15 | $0.7500 | +10.3% |
| 2023-08-16 | $0.6800 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
SEC Filings & Material Events
Latest earnings
Significant news
Significant news
Latest earnings
Significant news
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | +35,300 | +82.5% | Increased |
| Tiger Global | 2026-Q1 | -2,977,747 | -54.4% | Decreased |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | -51,075 | -19.4% | Decreased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | -678,633 | -98.6% | Decreased |
| Appaloosa Management | 2026-Q1 | -410,000 | -82.0% | Decreased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | +3,232,800 | +44.2% | Increased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | +100,888 | +10.3% | Increased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | +37,900 | +270.7% | Increased |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | +294,294 | +10.8% | Increased |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | -1,478,400 | -34.7% | Decreased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | -257,500 | -3.4% | Decreased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | -630,789 | -47.8% | Decreased |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VGT or IVW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MSFT shares regardless of Microsoft Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $390.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to MSFT through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Microsoft Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with MSFT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 46 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MSFT Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 MSFT shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 10.0% of the VGT (VGT) and 9.1% of the IVW (IVW). Across 35 tracked ETFs, approximately 944M shares (12.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest MSFT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 35 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MSFT Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Microsoft Corporation over the past year sits near $508.21 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $441.31 sits 13.2% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
MSFT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Microsoft Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Microsoft Corporation converts 45% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 55% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 9.3% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 4,537 | $405.21 | $1.8M |
| 2026-05-13 | 1,901 | $407.77 | $775,170.77 |
| 2026-05-11 | 210,742 | $415.12 | $87.5M |
| 2026-05-06 | 1 | $411.38 | $411.38 |
| 2026-05-05 | 15,830 | $413.62 | $6.5M |
| 2026-05-04 | 9,500 | $414.44 | $3.9M |
| 2026-04-28 | 1,138 | $424.82 | $483,445.16 |
| 2026-04-27 | 6,501 | $424.62 | $2.8M |
| 2026-04-24 | 1 | $415.75 | $415.75 |
| 2026-04-23 | 157 | $432.92 | $67,968.44 |
| 2026-04-22 | 98 | $424.16 | $41,567.68 |
| 2026-04-21 | 30,000 | $418.07 | $12.5M |
| 2026-04-20 | 33,731 | $422.79 | $14.3M |
| 2026-04-17 | 1 | $420.26 | $420.26 |
| 2026-04-16 | 10,200 | $411.22 | $4.2M |
| 2026-04-14 | 16,802 | $384.37 | $6.5M |
| 2026-04-10 | 1,258 | $373.07 | $469,322.06 |
| 2026-04-09 | 65 | $374.33 | $24,331.45 |
| 2026-04-08 | 874 | $372.29 | $325,381.46 |
| 2026-04-07 | 585 | $372.88 | $218,134.8 |
| 2026-04-06 | 8,600 | $373.46 | $3.2M |
| 2026-04-02 | 70,356 | $369.37 | $26.0M |
| 2026-04-01 | 101,968 | $370.17 | $37.7M |
| 2026-03-31 | 249 | $358.96 | $89,381.04 |
| 2026-03-30 | 445 | $356.77 | $158,762.65 |
| 2026-03-27 | 493 | $365.97 | $180,423.21 |
| 2026-03-26 | 48 | $371.04 | $17,809.92 |
| 2026-03-25 | 585 | $372.74 | $218,052.9 |
| 2026-03-24 | 94,187 | $383.00 | $36.1M |
| 2026-03-23 | 392,396 | $381.87 | $149.8M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 10,543,100 | $3,902,739,327K |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 3,006,618 | $1,112,959,785K |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 2,781,800 | $1,029,738,906K |
| Tiger Global | 2026-Q1 | 2,500,000 | $925,425,000K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | 1,084,979 | $401,626,676K |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | 211,966 | $78,463,454K |
| Appaloosa Management | 2026-Q1 | 90,000 | $33,315,300K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 78,100 | $28,910,277K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 51,900 | $19,211,823K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | 9,485 | $3,517,796K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 7,310,300 | $3,535,407,286K |
| Tiger Global | 2025-Q4 | 5,477,747 | $2,649,148,004K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 4,260,200 | $2,060,317,924K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 2,712,324 | $1,311,734,133K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | 984,091 | $475,926,089K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| NOW | 0.508 | 0.567 | Moderate |
| SAP | 0.497 | 0.646 | Moderate |
| CRWD | 0.496 | 0.566 | Moderate |
| SNOW | 0.465 | 0.503 | Moderate |
| CRM | 0.465 | 0.536 | Moderate |
| NVDA | 0.445 | 0.374 | Moderate |
| CDNS | 0.444 | 0.494 | Moderate |
| ZS | 0.427 | 0.462 | Moderate |
| PANW | 0.427 | 0.520 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare MSFT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.