Adobe Inc. (ADBE)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 15.1x earnings — a 77% discount to the sector average of 65.0x — ADBE is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 7.0 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). Near modeled fair value — DCF estimates $218 (-9%).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedAdobe Inc. demonstrates exceptional fundamental quality, characterized by a robust ROIC-WACC spread of +23.2% that signals highly efficient capital deployment relative to its cost of equity. The DuPont decomposition reveals an ROE of 61.3% driven primarily by industry-leading net margins at 30.0%, supported by moderate leverage (Equity Multiplier 2.54x) and decent asset turnover, rather than aggressive financial engineering. This operational strength is corroborated by a high Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, an Altman Z-Score of 7.7 indicating low bankruptcy risk, and a Beneish M-Score of -2.85 suggesting minimal earnings manipulation concerns.
Despite these strong fundamentals, the current valuation presents a significant divergence from historical norms and sector peers. Trading at a P/E ratio of 14.2x versus a technology sector average of 42.2x, the stock appears deeply discounted on an earnings basis. However, this compression is not fully supported by intrinsic value models; a DCF analysis implies a fair value of $214, which corresponds to -11.9% downside from current levels based on assumed FCF growth rates near 9.6%. This suggests the market may be pricing in structural headwinds or a re-rating risk that contradicts the company's profitability trajectory.
Risk factor analysis further complicates the investment thesis through mixed signals across different factors and insider behavior. While the stock exhibits robust profitability characteristics with a positive RMW alpha of 0.169, it suffers from substantial underperformance relative to size and value benchmarks, evidenced by an annual Fama-French Alpha of -68.72% and a negative HML tilt of -0.354. Compounding these valuation metrics is notable insider activity, with $485,323 in net selling over the past 90 days, which warrants close monitoring alongside the discrepancy between low multiples and DCF-derived downside potential.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 11% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 11.5% | 13.5% | 15.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $251 | $205 | $172 |
| 3% | $273 | $218 | $181 |
| 4% | $301 | $235 | $192 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $262.11.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=13.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $218 (-9.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 48% below its 5-year average P/E of 25.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAdobe Inc. is currently trading at $244.76 within the technology sector, presenting a specific technical snapshot that requires careful interpretation of its momentum and trend dynamics. Without explicit moving average data points in the provided parameters, the precise relationship between the current price and long-term or short-term averages remains undefined for this summary; however, the price level itself suggests a valuation point where market participants are actively weighing recent performance against historical benchmarks. The absence of specific RSI readings means that definitive conclusions regarding immediate overbought or oversold conditions cannot be drawn from the available information alone, leaving the assessment of short-term momentum incomplete without further indicators. In this context, any analysis must rely on the single data point provided while acknowledging significant gaps in the broader technical picture. The current price sits at a critical juncture where future direction will likely depend heavily on whether subsequent trading sessions establish support above or resistance below key moving averages not yet specified here. Traders observing this setup should note that the lack of corroborating trend indicators prevents a clear determination of whether the asset is in an established uptrend, downtrend, or consolidation phase based solely on these facts. Ultimately, the technical narrative for Adobe Inc. at $244.76 remains partially unresolved due to missing comparative data regarding moving averages and oscillators like RSI. Market participants must exercise caution when interpreting this isolated price level without context from broader trend confirmations or momentum signals that are typically required to validate a directional bias. The
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2005-03-24 | $0.0065 | 0.0% |
| 2004-12-23 | $0.0065 | 0.0% |
| 2004-09-24 | $0.0065 | 0.0% |
| 2004-06-25 | $0.0065 | 0.0% |
| 2004-03-26 | $0.0065 | 0.0% |
| 2004-01-07 | $0.0065 | 0.0% |
| 2003-09-19 | $0.0065 | 0.0% |
| 2003-06-19 | $0.0065 | 0.0% |
| 2003-03-20 | $0.0065 | 0.0% |
| 2003-01-07 | $0.0065 | 0.0% |
| 2002-09-20 | $0.0065 | 0.0% |
| 2002-06-21 | $0.0065 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IGV or MOAT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ADBE shares regardless of Adobe Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $16.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to ADBE through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Adobe Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Adobe Inc. (ADBE) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Microsoft Corp (MSFT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with ADBE. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 33 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ADBE Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 ADBE shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.1% of the IGV (IGV) and 2.5% of the MOAT (MOAT). Across 32 tracked ETFs, approximately 62M shares (15.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest ADBE Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 32 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ADBE Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Adobe Inc. over the past year sits near $248.80 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $262.11 trades 5.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ADBE Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Adobe Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Adobe Inc. converts 100% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 23.4% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 118 | $240.83 | $28,417.94 |
| 2026-05-11 | 1,628 | $253.04 | $411,949.12 |
| 2026-05-05 | 11 | $253.96 | $2,793.56 |
| 2026-05-04 | 1,710 | $250.71 | $428,714.1 |
| 2026-05-01 | 956 | $246.10 | $235,271.6 |
| 2026-04-27 | 1,530 | $245.44 | $375,523.2 |
| 2026-04-23 | 27 | $255.94 | $6,910.38 |
| 2026-04-20 | 501 | $244.45 | $122,469.45 |
| 2026-04-16 | 13,503 | $244.66 | $3.3M |
| 2026-04-15 | 13 | $235.72 | $3,064.36 |
| 2026-04-14 | 4 | $240.11 | $960.44 |
| 2026-04-13 | 100 | $225.35 | $22,535 |
| 2026-04-10 | 11,712 | $229.94 | $2.7M |
| 2026-04-08 | 4,950 | $240.14 | $1.2M |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,084 | $242.92 | $263,325.28 |
| 2026-04-01 | 41 | $243.08 | $9,966.28 |
| 2026-03-27 | 3 | $240.88 | $722.64 |
| 2026-03-25 | 20 | $238.87 | $4,777.4 |
| 2026-03-23 | 2,741 | $248.15 | $680,179.15 |
| 2026-03-20 | 300 | $245.99 | $73,797 |
| 2026-03-17 | 400 | $251.86 | $100,744 |
| 2026-03-09 | 10,206 | $283.62 | $2.9M |
| 2026-03-04 | 2,274 | $270.99 | $616,231.26 |
| 2026-03-03 | 22,751 | $260.88 | $5.9M |
| 2026-02-27 | 20 | $259.04 | $5,180.8 |
| 2026-02-24 | 107 | $246.68 | $26,394.76 |
| 2026-02-23 | 321 | $258.61 | $83,013.81 |
| 2026-02-20 | 55,705 | $259.21 | $14.4M |
| 2026-02-19 | 14,547 | $263.17 | $3.8M |
| 2026-02-17 | 1 | $263.97 | $263.97 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CRM | 0.690 | 0.737 | Moderate |
| WDAY | 0.610 | 0.686 | Moderate |
| NOW | 0.590 | 0.678 | Moderate |
| INTU | 0.584 | 0.714 | Moderate |
| PAYC | 0.569 | 0.640 | Moderate |
| ADSK | 0.561 | 0.622 | Moderate |
| GEN | 0.557 | 0.627 | Moderate |
| ACN | 0.544 | 0.579 | Moderate |
| TENB | 0.517 | 0.568 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ADBE to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.