Intuit Inc. (INTU)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 20.2x earnings — a 69% discount to the sector average of 65.0x — INTU is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 9/9, Altman Z 5.2 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $481 implies 30% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedIntuit demonstrates robust fundamental quality characterized by a 15.6% revenue growth rate and exceptional profitability, evidenced by a net margin of 20.5% supported by high asset turnover relative to its equity multiplier. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the 19.6% ROE is primarily driven by operational efficiency rather than leverage, while creditworthiness metrics are pristine with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 6.2 indicating low bankruptcy risk. However, the Beneish M-Score of -2.26 suggests earnings lack manipulation concerns despite strong financials, yet the negative profitability factor delta (-0.203) signals a potential divergence between current operational performance and broader market expectations for high-margin growth stocks.
Valuation metrics present a mixed picture where the 27.5x P/E trades at a significant discount to the sector average of 42.2x, suggesting the market may be pricing in slower future expansion than historical trends warrant. A DCF analysis implies fair value at $452 with only 4.7% upside against current levels, which aligns with an assumed long-term free cash flow growth rate of 11.8%. This narrow valuation gap indicates that while the stock appears undervalued relative to peers on a multiple basis, the absolute price already incorporates optimistic assumptions regarding future earnings acceleration and risk-free rate sensitivities inherent in the discounting process.
Risk-adjusted performance data reveals notable headwinds despite strong fundamentals; the Fama-French alpha of -52.35% annually highlights significant underperformance relative to size and value benchmarks over the measured period. Compounding this, the negative Value Factor (-0.381) and Profitability Factor (-0.203) deltas suggest the stock's recent price action has lagged behind its fundamental attributes compared to other growth or high-profitability names in the index. Furthermore, insider activity shows $79.25 million in net selling over 90 days, a flow that contrasts with the company's strong balance sheet and could reflect portfolio rebalancing by executives who may perceive current valuations as fully reflecting future risks not yet captured in analyst models.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 16% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.8% | 11.8% | 13.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $568 | $441 | $358 |
| 3% | $638 | $481 | $383 |
| 4% | $731 | $531 | $413 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $322.14.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $481 (+30.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 34% below its 5-year average P/E of 34.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedIntuit Inc. is currently trading at $319.94, presenting a specific snapshot within its broader technical architecture without immediate context from surrounding moving average envelopes or volatility bands that would typically define mean-reversion zones. In the absence of explicit upper and lower boundary data relative to this price point, the precise distance between current valuation and statistical averages remains undefined in this isolated view. Consequently, determining whether the stock is exhibiting a stretched condition conducive to potential pullbacks or an oversold state hinting at possible rebounds requires additional metrics regarding standard deviation ranges or historical mean reversion thresholds that are not provided here. The positioning of $319.94 within its sector-specific technology landscape offers limited insight into relative value without comparative data on long-term trend lines or immediate support levels derived from recent price action clustering. While the current figure stands as a factual observation, interpreting it as an entry point for mean reversion strategies would be speculative absent knowledge of where the primary moving averages are situated and how far this price deviates from them statistically. The technical setup described by these isolated parameters does not inherently signal proximity to equilibrium or extreme dispersion that usually triggers such directional hypotheses in quantitative analysis frameworks relying on envelope breaches.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | $1.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-09 | $1.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-09 | $1.2000 | +15.4% |
| 2025-07-10 | $1.0400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-10 | $1.0400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-10 | $1.0400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-10 | $1.0400 | +15.6% |
| 2024-07-10 | $0.9000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-09 | $0.9000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-09 | $0.9000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-05 | $0.9000 | +15.4% |
| 2023-07-07 | $0.7800 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IGV or VFQY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell INTU shares regardless of Intuit Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $18.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to INTU through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Intuit Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Intuit Inc. (INTU) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies SHOPIFY INC - CLASS A (SHOP) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with INTU. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 35 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
INTU Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 INTU shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Intuit Inc. (INTU) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.1% of the IGV (IGV) and 1.1% of the VFQY (VFQY). Across 35 tracked ETFs, approximately 43M shares (15.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest INTU Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 35 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
INTU Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Intuit Inc. over the past year sits near $389.78 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $322.14 sits 17.4% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
INTU Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Intuit Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Intuit Inc. converts 103% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 3.3% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 881 | $371.71 | $327,476.51 |
| 2026-05-07 | 2,727 | $388.55 | $1.1M |
| 2026-05-01 | 13 | $388.50 | $5,050.5 |
| 2026-04-27 | 101 | $395.95 | $39,990.95 |
| 2026-04-24 | 139 | $383.30 | $53,278.7 |
| 2026-04-20 | 71 | $393.25 | $27,920.75 |
| 2026-04-17 | 3,643 | $387.11 | $1.4M |
| 2026-04-16 | 5 | $389.72 | $1,948.6 |
| 2026-04-15 | 112 | $366.80 | $41,081.6 |
| 2026-04-10 | 84,160 | $361.69 | $30.4M |
| 2026-03-27 | 100 | $432.55 | $43,255 |
| 2026-03-25 | 28 | $432.45 | $12,108.6 |
| 2026-03-23 | 5,404 | $455.56 | $2.5M |
| 2026-03-16 | 200 | $439.96 | $87,992 |
| 2026-03-12 | 101,249 | $440.45 | $44.6M |
| 2026-03-10 | 1 | $473.67 | $473.67 |
| 2026-03-09 | 3,286 | $481.17 | $1.6M |
| 2026-03-05 | 73,987 | $440.14 | $32.6M |
| 2026-02-23 | 13 | $380.55 | $4,947.15 |
| 2026-02-19 | 41 | $389.57 | $15,972.37 |
| 2026-02-18 | 21 | $379.17 | $7,962.57 |
| 2026-02-13 | 10 | $397.96 | $3,979.6 |
| 2026-02-12 | 81,408 | $399.69 | $32.5M |
| 2026-02-09 | 789 | $443.77 | $350,134.53 |
| 2026-02-03 | 75 | $487.12 | $36,534 |
| 2026-02-02 | 13 | $498.92 | $6,485.96 |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,120 | $545.29 | $610,724.8 |
| 2026-01-15 | 483 | $566.60 | $273,667.8 |
| 2026-01-12 | 5 | $646.90 | $3,234.5 |
| 2026-01-06 | 101 | $633.84 | $64,017.84 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| NOW | 0.629 | 0.716 | Moderate |
| ADSK | 0.619 | 0.705 | Moderate |
| CRM | 0.615 | 0.706 | Moderate |
| WDAY | 0.591 | 0.757 | Moderate |
| ADBE | 0.584 | 0.714 | Moderate |
| PAYC | 0.527 | 0.618 | Moderate |
| GEN | 0.519 | 0.632 | Moderate |
| ADP | 0.515 | 0.587 | Moderate |
| TENB | 0.508 | 0.570 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare INTU to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.